IMPACT OF THE TRADE AGREEMENT : Pact Could Be Mixed Bag for San Diego : Commerce: It could boost business in the border city. But it also could bring pollution, congestion and other woes.

San Diego could benefit from the North American Free Trade Agreement more than most American cities, but it could also face significant risks, some observers say.

Cities such as San Diego would be well-positioned to take advantage of an agreement because, if it stimulates increased commercial and industrial activity in Mexico, it most likely would be concentrated along the border until roads and other facilities in Mexico’s interior are improved, said Paul Ganster, director of San Diego State University’s Institute for Regional Studies of the Californias.

In particular, San Diego’s service industry would benefit significantly from an accord. The accounting, advertising, financial, engineering and legal professions stand to gain--as do construction-related companies, as Mexico expands its roads, railways and ports to accommodate the anticipated increase in trade.

However, some fear that the accord could result in more air and water pollution in the border region, while others worry about San Diego’s ability to cope with a huge increase in commerce resulting from enactment of the agreement, a process that may take six months.

Environmentalists point to the prospect of increased growth in Tijuana, which shares the same air basin and coast.

“I think it will have devastating environmental impacts for the entire border region,” said Diane Takvorian, executive director of the Environmental Health Coalition, a San Diego-based advocacy and education organization. The high levels of air and water pollution that already exist in Tijuana would increase, she said--to San Diego’s detriment.

The region’s economic benefits could be stunted by increased congestion at the San Ysidro and Otay Mesa border crossings and by lack of an international airport, said James E. Rauch, a UC San Diego economics professor and an expert on international trade and Third World development.

Delays at the border, which often exceed an hour for motorists, could motivate some businesses to locate in Arizona or Texas, where crossings generally are faster, Rauch said. The San Ysidro border crossing already is the busiest land port of entry in the world, he said, and it will become busier with the trade agreement.

Pointing to the gridlock, one San Diego-Tijuana business organization, Border Region Action Group, recently proposed fee-only express lanes to facilitate business crossings, but the idea met with stiff opposition from the U.S. Customs Service.

“The deals that come out of the trade agreement are still going to be consummated with a handshake, and the border areas that have the greatest ease and movement will probably see the greatest benefit,” Rauch said. “You certainly can’t put San Diego at the top of that list.”

Border transit problems exemplify the San Diego and Tijuana regional governments’ lack of planning--the further consequences of which will be seen when the free trade agreement becomes a reality, said Charles E. Nathanson. The UC San Diego sociologist is also executive director of San Diego Dialogue, a public policy group concerned with border business and government issues.