THE TIMES POLL : Delegates High on Bush, Split Over Abortion

The San Fernando Valley area and Ventura County delegation to this week’s Republican National Convention is confident the Bush-Quayle ticket will be reelected but delegates are divided over questions of abortion and whether the country is headed in the right direction, according to a Times survey.

The delegates and alternates to the Houston convention approve of the way President Bush has handled domestic and foreign affairs, although they give him higher marks on foreign policy. But they are critical of his approval of a budget deal with the Democrat-led Congress to raise taxes in 1990.

The Times survey also found that delegation members enthusiastically support a ticket of Bush and Vice President Dan Quayle, contrary to the sentiments of some within the party who favor replacing Bush and others who want Quayle pushed aside. Members expressed confidence in Quayle’s ability to step in as President, if necessary, but by a margin of more than 4 to 1 preferred HUD Secretary Jack Kemp to Quayle as the party’s 1996 nominee.

In a telephone survey conducted between July 30 and Aug. 7, The Times interviewed 30 of the 32 Valley area delegation members and all six Ventura County members. Two Valley members declined to participate.

The combined Ventura-Valley delegation is composed of 23 women and 15 men, all of whom are pledged to Bush under the Republicans’ winner-take-all primary formula.

“We’ve got a far better ticket than the Democrats at both the President’s level and the vice president’s level,” said veteran Rep. Carlos J. Moorhead (R-Glendale), a Bush delegate. “The Republican program is far better for prosperity for the future. We don’t want to go back to the double-digit inflation and double-digit interest rates that we had under President Carter.”

Moorhead reflects a delegation that is relatively conservative, well-educated, middle-age to elderly, affluent and experienced in party politics and national conventions. Its members include party and elected officials, business executives, lawyers, conservative Christian activists and homemakers.

Most are over 45 years old. Nearly one-third are 65 or older. More than two-thirds have attended one or more national conventions. The delegation is largely Anglo, but includes at least four Latinos, three Asians and one black member.

More than half the members said their family income is more than $75,000 annually. More than a third said their household earnings are over $100,000. Only one reported a family income of less than $20,000. Delegates generally must pay their own way to the convention, a costly undertaking.

Although the delegation members largely agree on many issues, they are about evenly split over the sensitive, polarizing subject of abortion.

Nearly half described themselves as anti-abortion but almost as many said they favored abortion rights. The men were as divided as the women on the issue. In contrast, all but two of 39 Democrats surveyed said they support abortion rights.

Several delegates said in interviews that they would like to see modification of the plank in the party platform calling for a constitutional amendment banning abortion. They agreed with First Lady Barbara Bush, who said last week that she would prefer to see the abortion issue removed from the political arena.

“It’s much too much politicized,” said Lucille Pershing, a homemaker, longtime party activist and Bush delegate from Burbank. “It should be an issue between a woman and her husband and her God and not in politics. . . .

“I’m pro-responsibility. I think it’s too bad we bring children into the world who are unwanted or abused or whatever.”

Despite the lingering recession, four-fifths of the members said they are better off now than they were four years ago. Nonetheless, like their counterparts who attended the Democratic Convention last month, they said overwhelmingly that the economy will be the most decisive issue in the fall campaign.

More than five out of six describe themselves as somewhat or very conservative. The rest call themselves moderates. There are no self-described liberals among them.

They contrast sharply with the Democratic delegates from the Valley and Ventura on major issues. All but one approved of the Persian Gulf War last year; two-thirds of their Democratic counterparts opposed the war.

Almost nine out of 10 said the federal budget should be balanced strictly by cutting spending, with the others saying the deficit should be shaved through reduced spending and tax increases. Half the Democrats said higher taxes as well as lower spending would be necessary to wipe out the red ink.

Reflecting the anti-tax and anti-congressional sentiment of the delegation members, the one major issue on which the members disagreed with Bush was the 1990 budget deal that dramatically raised taxes in an effort to close the budget deficit. Twenty-three said Bush was wrong to enter into the deal. Five said he was right and eight declined to respond.

“The President made a major mistake,” said Los Angeles County Supervisor Mike Antonovich. “He thought the Democrats would cut spending with that agreement and he was proven wrong. It has slowed the recovery. I think that experience by the President has equipped him to be a tougher negotiator when he’s reelected.”

In contrast to the Democrats, the delegation is also divided over whether things in the nation are going in the right direction or have gotten seriously off on the wrong track. Nearly half the Republicans said things were on the wrong track; Democrats almost unanimously agreed that the country was headed in the wrong direction.

“I think we’re moving in the right direction in terms of term limits, cutting entitlements and trying to hold the line on taxes because if we continue to make it difficult for businesses to do business, we can’t put everybody on welfare,” said Peggy Sadler, a longtime party activist and state central committee member from Simi Valley. “We’re going to have to get some help from Congress.”

To the extent that Republicans believe that the nation has slipped, they are inclined to blame the Democrat-controlled Congress rather than Bush or his predecessor, Ronald Reagan. Bush was given high marks: All but two said their impression of him was favorable and more than two-thirds said very favorable.

All but five said they approved of Bush’s handling of domestic problems, while more than two-thirds said they approved somewhat. In contrast, all respondents said they approved of his handling of foreign affairs, and all but three said they approved strongly.

The delegation was as positive about Quayle as about Bush. Twenty-five said they regard Quayle very favorably, seven said somewhat favorably and only four said unfavorably.

Thirty delegates and alternates said that Quayle is qualified to take over the job as President. Twenty-nine said Bush should keep Quayle on the ticket, four said he should be dropped and three said they weren’t sure.

“He’s very conservative, he’s very good,” said Sara DeVito Hardman, a Tarzana delegate, state director of the Christian Coalition and state vice chair of the Bush-Quayle campaign.

“My people all love Quayle. In some cases, it’s because of Quayle that people are sticking with Bush. . . . I’ve met the man. He’s really a bright man. And he’s framed the issue of family values. That’s what we care most about. That’s what America’s all about.”

Despite the down-the-line support for Quayle to remain on the ticket, delegation members have their hearts elsewhere when it comes to the 1996 presidential campaign. Only three said Quayle was their personal choice at this early juncture for that nomination. Jack Kemp was named by 14. Another four mentioned California Gov. Pete Wilson.

“It’s a very difficult choice,” said Celeste Greig, an alternate who is a longtime GOP activist and the ex-president of the Los Angeles County Commission on the Status of Women. “But I feel Jack Kemp is more sensitive, more caring to the communities. He doesn’t believe 100% that government should take care of us but he does believe that government should be a helping hand. . . .

“I think he has more respectability. The news media has made Dan Quayle look like a clown, look like an idiot. I’m afraid that will be retained in four years.”

Despite the Republicans’ huge deficit in the polls, the delegation was overwhelmingly optimistic that the party’s ticket will prevail. Thirty said the Republicans will keep the White House. Two predicted a Democratic victory.

Such confidence in the face of adversity may arise, in part, from the questions related to marital infidelity, draft evasion and marijuana experimentation that dogged Democratic nominee Bill Clinton in the primary campaign. Twenty-eight respondents said Clinton was very vulnerable on the character issue. Only one said he has minimal vulnerability.

“I think he’s vulnerable on his judgment,” said Bonny Waugh, a nurse who is a Bush delegate from Palmdale and a member of the state Republican Party. “If someone makes decisions to fool around while they’re married then it gives you a clue that there’s some kinds of decisions that might be made that are not in the best interests of the United States.”

More than half the respondents also said that Texas billionaire Ross Perot’s decision not to seek the presidency as an independent would help Bush--despite initial polls that show a majority of would-be Perot voters shifting to Clinton. Only six said Perot’s withdrawal would hurt Bush. Slightly fewer said this would benefit Bush in California.

In addition, two-thirds thought James A. Baker’s imminent switch from secretary of state to chief of staff will be somewhat or very important to Bush’s reelection prospects.

“I don’t think anything is ever a panacea,” said Christian activist Hardman. But “Jim Baker is very, very qualified. I believe he will make a big, big difference. Big time.”

Also contributing to this story was Susan Pinkus of the Los Angeles Times Poll.

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times surveyed 36 of the 38 delegates and alternates to this week’s Republican National Convention in Houston from the San Fernando Valley and Ventura County. The interviews were conducted between July 30 and Aug. 7. Two delegates declined to be interviewed.

A Sampling of Opinion

Delegation divided on abortion.

Q. Do you consider yourself pro-choice or anti-abortion? Pro-choice: 39% Anti-abortion: 47% Not sure: 3% Refused to state: 11% The delegation’s opinion of the country’s direction is split.

Q. Do you think things in the nation today are going in the right direction or have they gotten seriously off on the wrong track? Right: 47% Wrong: 47% Not sure: 3% Refused to state: 3% Delegates oppose the tax increases agreed to by Bush.

Q. Do you think President Bush was right or wrong to agree to a tax increase as part of the 1990 budget compromise? Right: 14% Wrong: 64% Neither: 22% Bill Clinton’s character is a key issue.

Q. Generally speaking, how vulnerable do you think Bill Clinton is on the issue of character? Very vulnerable: 78% Somewhat vulnerable: 14% Minimally vulnerable: 3% Not vulnerable: 3% Unsure: 2% Ross Perot’s departure from the race will help Bush.

Q. Do you think the departure of Perot from the presidential race will help or hurt Bush’s candidacy for President? Help considerably: 22% Help some: 42% Hurt some: 8% Hurt considerably: 8% Not sure: 17% Refused to state: 3% The economy will be decisive in the election.

Q. In your opinion, what do you think will be the the most decisive issue in the campaign for President? Is there another issue you think will be as decisive in the campaign for President? Economy: 86% Abortion: 8% Homeless: 3% Crime: 3% AIDS: 3% Education: 3% Family values: 5% Morality: 3% Taxes: 3% Defense cuts: 3% Other: 22% Refused: 2% Dan Quayle gets high marks.

Q. Generally speaking, what is your impression of Dan Quayle? Very favorable: 70% Somewhat favorable: 19% Somewhat unfavorable: 8% Very unfavorable: 3% Bush’s domestic policies win favor.

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bush is handling domestic problems? Approve strongly: 17% Approve somewhat: 69% Disapprove somewhat: 6% Disapprove strongly: 8%