THE TIMES POLL : Party Coalition May Be Fracturing Under Bush

President Bush heads into the Republican Convention facing rejection by substantial elements of the coalition that powered his party to three consecutive presidential victories during the 1980s, The Times Poll has found.

As Republicans gather here, Bush faces widespread defections in three critical groups that Ronald Reagan cemented into the GOP coalition during the 1980s: independents; older, culturally conservative “Reagan Democrats;” and younger, more moderate GOP partisans who favor abortion rights.

Overall, the poll found Democratic presidential candidate Bill Clinton leading Bush by a resounding 56%-33% margin, with 9% undecided; that represents a slight widening of his lead since the end of the Democratic Convention, when The Times Poll showed the Arkansas governor with a 52%-32% advantage.

No Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976 has held as large a lead on the eve of the Republican Convention as Clinton enjoys today. And his success at maintaining such a large advantage over Bush stands in stark contrast to 1988, when Democrat Michael S. Dukakis saw his 17-point post-convention lead cut substantially by the time the GOP gathered for its session in New Orleans.

The survey suggests the magnitude of the task Bush faces this week in changing voter perceptions of his own performance. Fully 82% of those surveyed said they already know enough about Bush to decide whether he deserves reelection--an ominous number for a candidate trailing so badly. By a 54%-42% count, those surveyed said it was unlikely that conditions in the nation would “improve substantially” if Bush was reelected; only 9% said such improvements were “very likely.”

The Times Poll, supervised by John Brennan, surveyed 1,146 registered voters from Aug. 12-14; it has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.

Since the Democratic Convention, Bush and Vice President Dan Quayle have intensified their efforts to shift the debate to the qualifications of the Democratic ticket, arguing that Clinton is untested and “risky”; such arguments are likely to be a major focus of the GOP convention this week.

At this point, voters view Clinton favorably by a 57%-26% count. Just one out of five say his views are too liberal; twice as many say they are “about right.” Voters give him roughly the same marks for honesty and integrity as the President, and more see him, rather than Bush, as likely to “bring about the changes America needs.” By 65% to 27%, those surveyed say conditions are likely to improve if Clinton is elected.

Americans also give him at least as high grades on leadership as Bush: By 55% to 16% voters say Clinton has strong qualities of leadership, a differential actually better than Bush’s 62%-33% score.

But the poll indicates that there may be room to change those glowing perceptions: 53% of those polled say they still need to know more about Clinton to decide whether he could be a good President; 51% of his supporters share that view. And 44% say they aren’t sure whether Clinton would display good judgment in a crisis.

Even so, the poll strongly suggests that, at this point, the race is still primarily a referendum on Bush’s performance and the nation’s direction--and voters remain extremely unhappy with both.

For Bush, the equation is brutally simple. Most of those satisfied with his performance and the country’s direction are voting for him; most of those dissatisfied with his handling of the job and the nation’s course are voting against him. His problem is that the second group is much larger than the first.

In the survey, for example, just 16% of those polled said the nation was moving “in the right direction,” while 78% said things were “seriously off on the wrong track.” That stands as the most pessimistic assessment of the nation’s course during Bush’s presidency; it also equals the level of malaise evident in the last year of Carter’s presidency.

Among those who think the nation is moving in the right direction, Bush leads Clinton by a 62%-31% margin. But among those dissatisfied with the nation’s course, Clinton leads 63% to 26%.

Similarly 44% of those polled approved of Bush’s job performance as President; 52% disapproved.

Two-thirds of those who approve of Bush’s job performance favor him over Clinton; but those who disapprove of Bush’s record prefer Clinton 85% to 6%.

The same pattern is evident in voters’ views on the direction of the economy. A fifth of those polled say the economy is only in a mild recession or not in recession at all; nearly 60% of those voters back Bush.

But three out of 10 say the country is in a moderate recession, and they prefer Clinton by a 53%-36% margin. And 44% of those surveyed call the recession “serious”; they provide the backbone of Clinton’s support, preferring him over Bush by 72% to 18%.

All this unhappiness at the nation’s economic performance has erased the GOP’s key advantage during the 1980s: In the new survey Democrats hold a 44%-30% lead over Republicans as the party best able to produce prosperity; Republicans held an 18-point lead on that question during the last months of the 1988 campaign.

Historically, Democrats have only won the White House when they hold a substantial lead on that measure.

On that crucial question, Clinton’s lead over Bush is even greater: Asked who would do a better “job promoting economic prosperity” voters picked the challenger over the President by 56% to 26%. Nearly three out of five of those surveyed said Bush deserves a good amount or great deal of blame for the nation’s economic problems--a slightly higher percentage than those who blamed the Democratic Congress.

With this widespread economic discontent acting as the hammer, the poll shows severe cracks opening in the modern Republican presidential coalition first assembled by Richard M. Nixon in 1968, then reaffirmed by Reagan in 1980 and maintained, despite some erosion, by Bush in 1988.

At this point, Bush faces substantial defections from at least three critical groups, whose interests in many cases diverge. The difficulty of balancing their competing interests is probably one reason for the mixed signals emanating from the White House this past week on divisive social issues such as abortion and gay rights--with the President and First Lady Barbara Bush sending signals of tolerance in interviews even as the GOP approved a platform expressing hard-line sentiments on both questions.

Among the key groups Bush must reclaim to climb back into the race:

Clinton Republicans: Four years ago, Bush carried 92% of Republicans. At this point, the President leads Clinton among self-identified Republicans by a margin of only 67% to 25%. (By contrast, Democrats favor Clinton by 85% to 6%).

Bush’s numbers among GOP partisans almost certainly will improve after the convention. But he may face an uphill climb recapturing enough of the Clinton Republicans--who constitute about 8% of the overall electorate--to unify the party as completely as he did four years ago.

Who are the Clinton Republicans? Compared to Republicans loyal to Bush, they are more likely to be young, better-educated, female and affluent; above all, they are almost twice as likely as other Republicans to describe themselves as liberal or moderate.

On abortion, they present a stark contrast with the rest of the GOP. Clinton Republicans are much more supportive of legalized abortion than other Republicans--or for that matter, the population as a whole.

Overall, Americans favor the Roe vs. Wade decision guaranteeing legal access to abortion by 58% to 29%. Clinton Republicans support legalized abortion by more than 10 to 1; the rest of the GOP opposes legalized abortion by a 47%-39% count.

Bush’s decision to raise taxes is also hurting him with these voters: More than a third say they are more likely to vote against him because he reversed his “no new taxes” pledge.

But for these Republicans, like most voters, the principal gripe with the President is his handling of the economy: Asked in an open-ended question why they don’t like Bush, nearly a third cited the weak economy, far more than chose any other factor.

Reagan Democrats: In 1988, Bush carried nearly half of the Democrats who had voted for Reagan in 1984--a group that represented about one out of eight voters overall.

Now Bush faces overwhelming rejection from the so-called Reagan Democrats. In the survey, Democrats who voted for Reagan preferred Clinton over Bush by 73% to 16%.

As Reagan did, Bush has tried to appeal to these Reagan Democrats--who are culturally conservative, older and often Catholic--by stressing divisive social issues such as school prayer, abortion, welfare reform and the distribution of condoms in schools.

At the moment, it’s doing him little good: Democrats who oppose legalized abortion are still backing Clinton--an abortion rights advocate--at a rate of almost seven to one.

Moreover, moderate and conservative Democrats prefer Clinton over Bush by almost nine to one.

During the Democratic primaries, Catholics displayed clear reservations about Clinton, a Southern Baptist. But for now they have moved strongly toward him: Clinton leads Bush among Catholics by 62% to 27%. Four years ago, Bush carried half of Catholics--which helped him win key battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Illinois and Michigan.

What’s driving the Reagan Democrats back toward the party they abandoned? Three factors appear to stand out. One is enormous dissatisfaction with the country’s direction: Reagan Democrats are even more pessimistic than voters overall, with fully 86% of them considering the nation on the wrong track. Second is anger at Bush for raising taxes: 46% of Reagan Democrats say the tax hike makes them more likely to vote against him. By a 52%-20% margin, these voters say Clinton would do a better job of “holding down taxes” than Bush.

Finally, Reagan Democrats are more likely than other voters to see Bush as out of touch with the concerns of average Americans. Nationally, 37% of those surveyed said Bush “cares about the problems of average Americans” a good amount or a great deal; just 26% of Reagan Democrats felt that way. On one tangible measure of empathy, Reagan Democrats by 78% to 8% say Clinton is more likely than Bush to provide Americans with affordable health care; with all voters, the Democrat led 62% to 16% on that question.

Independents: In each of the past two elections, Republicans have carried at least 55% of independents, roughly a third of the electorate.

Now, though, Bush is lagging--though his problems don’t appear nearly as severe as among Reagan Democrats. Independents favor Clinton over Bush 49% to 39%.

On most questions, they mirror the electorate overall, but the poll suggests greater opportunity for Bush here than among some other disaffected groups. In contrast to the population overall, independents are almost evenly split between Republicans and Democrats on the question of which party can better ensure prosperity--suggesting lingering doubts about the Democrats’ economic stewardship.

On other questions, the poll suggests that Bush’s strongest suit--his record in foreign policy--is doing little to offset voter unhappiness with his domestic record. By a 61%-22% margin voters still believe he would do a better job of handling foreign policy than Clinton. And they give him a 62%-32% positive grade on his foreign policy performance.

But, despite the end of the Cold War, Americans hold an equivocal view on whether Bush’s policies has “made the world a safer place”: 47% say yes and 42% say no.

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll interviewed 1,146 registered voters nationwide, by telephone from Aug. 12-14. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the country. Random-digit dialing techniques were used to ensure that both listed and non-listed numbers had an opportunity to be contacted. Results were weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and household size. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For certain subgroups, the error margin is somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.

Tracking the Bush-Clinton Divide

Bill Clinton continues to lead President Bush by 23 points if the election were to be held today.

1. If the presidential election were today, for whom would you vote, George Bush or Bill Clinton?

(Ratings over time) 2. Who do you think would do the better job on:

Clinton Bush Promoting economic prosperity 56% 26% Handling foreign affairs 22% 61% Holding down taxes 36% 34% Providing affordable health 62% 16% care for more Americans

3. Will Clinton’s or Bush’s views on abortion make you more or less likely to vote for him in November, or will it have no effect on your vote? (respondents answered for both candidates)

CLINTON BUSH More 23% 14% Less 16% 26% No effect 55% 57% Don’t know 6% 3%

4. How much do you blame Democrats in Congress or George Bush for for economic problems this country faces today?

DEMOCRATS BUSH Great deal 22% 22% Good amount 30% 36% Not too much 32% 31% Not at all 9% 8%

Source: Los Angeles Times Poll taken Aug. 12-14 of 1,146 registered Voters. Margin of error is plus or minus three percentage points.