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‘92 REPUBLICAN CONVENTION : NEWS ANALYSIS : Most Take Middle Ground on Abortion : Issues: Polls show a majority favor neither a total ban nor unlimited access. Few call it a political priority.

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TIMES POLL DIRECTOR

Given the heat the issue continually generates, one might conclude that Americans are in two rigidly defined armed camps on the abortion question, an abortion rights group and an anti-abortion wing, each poised for a fight to the death on the electoral battlefield.

Such categories may accurately portray abortion militants. But they don’t describe the complex, contradictory views held by most voters on the subject.

Despite attempts of militants to portray them otherwise, polls show most Americans somewhere in the middle when asked their views on abortion. They oppose its wholesale restriction and disapprove of the constitutional ban suggested by the Republican Party platform plank that was drafted in Houston last week. But they don’t back complete unrestrained access either, as advocated in a resolution adopted last week at the American Bar Assn. convention in San Francisco.

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Also, polls place abortion well down on the list of things voters find compelling. A Gallup survey last January found the issue ranked at the bottom of a roster of 16 items as a presidential campaign issue voters wanted to hear about.

The just-completed Times Poll finds just 11% who list it as something they particularly want presidential candidates to discuss. That compares with 33% who cite the economy, 23% who name health care and 22% who mention unemployment. The pattern holds true for Democrats and Republicans, as well as for men and women.

Citing just one survey question on this issue when making a point about public opinion can be deceptive. Experts in the field agree that it takes a long, careful look at the dozens of poll questions asked by different organizations to get a true sense of voter feelings on abortion. The answers show a public torn by the issue, supportive of a woman’s legal right to choice but still bothered by moral reservations on the subject.

Most Americans say they support the 1973 Roe vs. Wade Supreme Court decision that legalized abortion, and a wide majority also believe that abortion should be available under at least some circumstances. Most say they generally oppose further action on the part of their state to limit access to the procedure.

Nonetheless, Americans are uneasy with the concept of abortion as birth control. And when asked, substantial majorities support some specific proposals for curtailing unrestricted access, including requiring prior notification for husbands by wives, parental notification by minors and a requirement that doctors discuss abortion alternatives with prospective patients.

Despite those views, Americans still insist that the final decision on how to proceed in abortion matters should come down to the woman in question. But most also say they believe abortion is morally wrong. A majority in a 1989 Times Poll even agreed that the practice amounted to murder.

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Such unresolved feelings probably work to dilute abortion’s power as a political issue; someone not sure of his or her own views is probably not going to try to persuade others.

The issue, however, seems to have a life of its own. Activists perennially predict voter uproar every time the Supreme Court hears an abortion case, but the polls show opinion has changed very little in response to such events.

In the latest Times survey, 26% say they are less likely to vote for Bush because of his abortion stance, while 14% are more inclined to back him because of it. Fifty-seven percent say it would not affect their vote. Among Republicans, 30% are more likely to back the President on the issue; 16% less likely.

Abortion can count as a political issue. About a quarter of the electorate say they consider it seriously when making a political choice. In local and state elections, it can loom as a bigger topic, with one side gaining an edge over the other. Californians, for example, tilt more toward choice than Americans generally, a point sure to count in the state’s two U.S. Senate races.

But on the national presidential level, it’s hard to see abortion rights advocates with a clear-cut advantage over their anti-abortion opponents, particularly within the Republican Party. While abortion rights forces outnumber the anti-abortion ranks, polls indicate the latter group is more deeply committed to the issue, balancing the scales. The voters polled by The Times in July who indicated they would switch a vote away from a candidate on abortion alone divided evenly between those who favored upholding the Roe decision and those who wanted repeal.

Republicans advising a Bush mid-stream change might also check exit polls from the last two elections: They show he and Ronald Reagan both ran stronger than their national average among voters who cared deeply about the abortion issue. His anti-abortion feelings didn’t sink George Bush in 1988; a softening of his opinions on this relatively low-priority issue would likely do little to bolster his political standing now.

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