‘92 REPUBLICAN CONVENTION : Despite a Tightly Controlled Script, Watch for Surprises : Agenda: Bush’s speech, Quayle’s visibility, Buchanan’s address and the abortion and tax issues may bring the unexpected.

There are significant political questions to be answered at the Republican National Convention.

Will President Bush deliver a rousing acceptance speech that is good enough to put him back in contention with Democratic challenger Bill Clinton? Does Vice President Dan Quayle still have broad support among the party faithful? Will Phil Gramm, Jack Kemp, Patrick J. Buchanan or someone else emerge as front-runner for the 1996 nomination?

And there are many less important--but, nevertheless, intriguing--questions that will be answered here this week as well.

Will former GOP challenger Buchanan use his convention speech to criticize the President? Will disgruntled abortion rights advocates try to raise a fuss in prime time? What will Republicans do to shed their image as the party of the rich? Will anyone dare repeat the words: “Read my lips”?

Cynics will tell you to expect the GOP convention, beginning Monday, to be nothing more than a highly scripted, tightly controlled, four-day television extravaganza touting the virtues of the party.

“The Republicans will have a good convention and George Bush will make the speech of his life,” predicted Democratic media consultant Frank Greer, who advises Clinton’s campaign.

But those who assume that nothing surprising can happen are simply reading from the wrong score card. Many of the most important developments--large and small--are beyond the control of the army of Republican media advisers and political operatives who are doing the minute-by-minute convention planning.

Here, according to some of the best Republican and Democratic political minds in the business, all of whom demanded anonymity, are some things that viewers ought to watch for whenever they switch on the Republican proceedings this week:

The Speech

At the 1988 convention, a time when then-Vice President Bush was trailing in the polls and some delegates were upset by his choice of Quayle as a running mate, the GOP presidential nominee managed to help reverse his fortunes by delivering what many commentators described as “the speech of his life.”

Bush goes into his party’s convention trailing in the polls--this time by even larger numbers--and under fire for retaining Quayle as his running mate. As a result, the pressure is on him to deliver another socko acceptance speech Thursday night--one that will put Clinton on the defensive.

No one knows what the President is planning to say, but it is a good bet that the speech will not include this phrase: “Read my lips.” Those are the three words that Bush used in 1988 in promising no new taxes--a pledge that he failed to keep. Those words have since become a weapon of Bush’s opponents.

Some political consultants are predicting that Bush’s speech will echo the themes expressed in Secretary of State James A. Baker III’s farewell address last Thursday at the State Department, in which he praised Bush as a “trusted leader” and stressed the “integrated program” on the foreign and domestic fronts that the Administration offers the electorate.

Along with the content of his speech, the reaction to it will be watched closely. “Four more years”--the usual Republican chant during nominating speeches--may not be entirely appropriate for Bush’s speech, especially as he tries to counter Clinton’s popular call for change.

Quayle, 1996 Contenders

In order to placate those moderate Republicans who think Quayle is hurting the GOP ticket, convention planners may be tempted to lower his profile, limiting his television exposure to his acceptance speech on Thursday night.

One way campaign officials could accomplish this is to prevent him from saying anything too controversial in Houston. Quayle’s advisers insist he will not be placed under wraps, but they acknowledge he will be careful not to say anything that would upstage the President.

Another way to play down Quayle would be to spotlight other contenders for the party’s 1996 presidential nomination. These include Gramm, the Texas senator; Kemp, the housing and urban development secretary; Buchanan; former Education Secretary William J. Bennett, and perhaps even Baker, the President’s newly appointed chief of staff.

At least one of the party’s rising stars is likely to be anointed by the press as the leading contender for ’96. It is a safe bet that the anointed one will not be Quayle.

Gramm will be offering the keynote address on Tuesday night--a speech that is certain to portray the Democrats as anathema to middle-class Americans. Buchanan, despite his often virulent campaign against Bush in the primaries, is likely to soft-pedal his criticism of the President. Still, his speech on Monday night will be closely watched for any little jabs he might take at Bush.

“Buchanan has to say something nasty to maintain his credibility,” one analyst remarked.

Of course, prominent convention speeches--even keynote addresses--are by no means a ticket to future success. The history books are littered with the forgotten names of former keynoters who were viewed at the time as presidential timber. And as Clinton demonstrated when he delivered a ludicrously long nominating speech for Michael S. Dukakis, even one bad night at a convention does not necessarily spell the end of a promising political career.

Clinton-Bashing

As sure as the sun will rise on Monday, the convention promises an orgy of Clinton-bashing. The question is not whether GOP stalwarts will criticize him, but how nasty will it get?

Numerous speakers will surely castigate the “liberal Democratic ticket.” Clinton will often be referred to as “Slick Willie.” There may be some mention of the word “bimbo,” which has become the GOP code word for Clinton’s alleged philandering. Democratic vice presidential candidate Al Gore will likely be portrayed as “an environmental extremist.” And Clinton’s wife, Hillary, could come in for attacks as a woman who does not adhere to traditional family values as expounded by Republicans.

Republicans have been advised to keep their criticism of the Democratic ticket on a high plane in order to avoid the charge that they are engaging in negative campaigning. But several experts noted that it may be hard for them to restrain themselves, especially since there is growing sentiment within the GOP that the press favors Clinton.

Abortion and Taxes

Abortion and taxes are sure to be forbidden topics in prime-time.

The party platform officially condemns abortion, even though many moderate Republicans are known to favor abortion rights. And the Republican platform committee, after flirting with language that would have described the Bush-backed tax hike as a “mistake,” backed off to avoid embarrassing the President.

Yet there is no way the convention planners can prevent abortion rights advocates and critics of Bush’s tax increase from registering their complaints outside the hall and in interviews with the news media.

Republicans are trying to blunt some of this criticism by emphasizing that they have invited several abortion rights advocates--such as Labor Secretary Lynn Martin and Massachusetts Gov. William F. Weld--to speak from the podium, albeit on other topics. By contrast, they note that Democratic Gov. Robert P. Casey of Pennsylvania, who disagreed with the party’s support of abortion rights, was barred from making a speech at the Democratic Convention in July.

Speeches by Weld and Martin will be closely monitored for any references to abortion.

And even though Bush himself will not utter the phrase “read my lips,” there is no guarantee that other convention speakers will not use those three forbidden words.

Dressing Down

Elegant parties, long limousines and wealthy delegates--these are standard elements of every Republican Convention. But with Bush being portrayed by Clinton as the President of the rich, some analysts predict the GOP will try to put a middle-class veneer on their Houston gathering.

“One wonders,” mused a Democrat, “how will they show off the good old Republican cloth coat?”

Country and western music may help to remove some of the traditional gloss. Tanya Tucker, whose latest hit is “If Your Heart Ain’t Busy Tonight,” will sing the national anthem at the opening of the convention.

The No-Shows

They will be conspicuous by their absence--the many Republican officeholders and members of Congress who have decided not to attend the convention because they do not want to be identified with the party’s conservative platform or because they fear their own reelection chances will be hurt by the top of the ticket.

Among others, the five GOP members of the Wisconsin congressional delegation bowed out. Sens. John W. Warner (R-Va.) and Christopher S. Bond (R-Mo.) said they had more pressing plans. And even though Rep. Nancy L. Johnson (R-Conn.) has agreed to speak at the convention, she has expressed strong misgivings about the conservative tone of the proceedings.

Former Presidents

Former Presidents Gerald R. Ford and Ronald Reagan will speak at the convention. But Richard M. Nixon will not attend. He has been persona non grata at GOP conventions since he resigned from the presidency in disgrace two decades ago.

GOP Tip Sheet

Surprises are bound to happen this week in Houston, even amid the careful choreography of a political convention. Here is an insider’s guide to the week, and the roles some big names will--and will not--play in the proceedings:

President Bush: The pressure is on him to deliver another socko acceptance speech.

Dan Quayle: His mission: Not to say anything to upstage the President.

Hillary Clinton: Possible target for Republican barbs over her version of family values.

Patrick J. Buchanan: Among those who will get a chance to shine in the spotlight.

Tanya Tucker: Party counting on appearance by country and western star to dampen its glitzy image.

Sen. John Warner: Missing in action: Turned down the invitation for more pressing plans.

Ronald Reagan: The Gipper again: On Monday night, a chance to work his old magic.

Richard Nixon: Will watch from afar, as he has since resignation two decades ago.