NEWS ANALYSIS : Battle Over Course of GOP Lies Ahead : Outlook: Many are looking toward future races. The outlines of three competing ideologies are emerging.

Vice President Dan Quayle had just finished his campaign pep talk to a conservative rally here this week when the activist audience broke into a notably forward-looking chant that made him grin:

“Twelve more years!” they cried over and over again. “Twelve more years!”

As that response shows, many of the Republicans gathered here to renominate President Bush are already looking beyond 1992 to future presidential elections. And what lies ahead is the fiercest ideological family fight to shake the Grand Old Party since Ronald Reagan challenged George Bush in 1980.

The reasons for the coming showdown are clear. Bush has done little to develop a new ideological thrust for the party and, come Election Day, in political terms Bush will either be a dead duck or a lame duck. That leaves it to others to fight out the question of the party’s future direction.

None doubt that the GOP will remain conservative. But which kind of conservative?

Already the battle lines are forming, and the outlines of three distinct groups of conservatives, each competing for control of the party debate--and of course for the presidential nomination--can be discerned, along with their natural leaders.

The Green Eyeshades. Sen. Phil Gramm of Texas, the convention keynoter, has emerged as the most prominent voice for this group, whose main concern is with limiting the role of government and holding down its cost. Contending that the value of any government program should be judged by whether it was worth taxing a hard-working businessman to pay for it, Gramm told the convention in his keynote address: “There are not a hell of a lot of programs that will stand up to that test.”

This has traditionally been one of GOP’s strongest themes, but critics complain that it has limited appeal when times are hard, as they are in this campaign.

The Helping Hands. Housing and Urban Development Secretary Jack Kemp is the leader here, arguing forcefully that, if conservatives are to stay in power, they must use government to stimulate private sector solutions. Fitting loosely within this group are also the GOP’s increasingly vocal abortion rights advocates, most of whom tend to agree with the Helping Hands economic philosophy.

Kemp, who is anti-abortion, nevertheless pointedly reminded the GOP’s abortion opponents in his convention address that “children . . . deserve our protection after their birth as they do before their birth.” But the problem for the Helping Hands folks is to overcome the inherent Republican suspicion of government.

The Moral Nationalists. Spearheaded by columnist Pat Buchanan, this cohort is distinguished chiefly by its militant emphasis on “values” issues, such as opposition to abortion and pornography, and its insistence on “America first” in international affairs, including phasing out foreign aid and a tough stance on trade.

Buchanan referred to the effort of Democrats to present themselves as political moderates at their convention last month as “the greatest single example of cross-dressing in American political history.”

Critics say Buchanan’s positions seem inflexible to many voters and his hard-line stance abroad could hinder U.S. foreign policy and hurt the chance for gains in global markets.

Any assessment of the GOP’s prospects for 1996 must also include Quayle in the first rank, even though his role as Bush’s understudy inhibits his opportunity to sound his own ideological horn and makes it difficult to place him in one of the three main competing categories.

The party’s ideological differences have been muted during the convention as a result of the domination of the proceedings by an alliance of the Bush campaign with conservative activists. Determined to avoid any discord, the Bush strategists have allowed the conservative forces to have their own way in such matters as the drafting of the platform.

But the convention here has also showcased the likely champions of the party’s ideological camps. Here’s a brief look at the strengths and shortcomings of the four most prominent prospects, in alphabetical order:

BUCHANAN--In the competition for conservative support for 1996, Buchanan’s backers will be quick to point out that he alone had the boldness to challenge President Bush for the nomination. In addition to being a powerful speaker, at 53 he has been seasoned in presidential campaigning going back to 1968, when he was a key aide to Richard M. Nixon.

No one can match Buchanan’s skill at mobilizing public resentment and anger. But some find his often-strident rhetoric abrasive and divisive. And if Bush does lose in November, some members of the GOP leadership, remembering the outspoken conservative’s attacks on Bush during the contest for the nomination, will put part of the blame for defeat on Buchanan.

GRAMM--The 50-year-old Gramm has his name on two pieces of legislation that helped define the Reagan era. As a Democrat he co-authored the 1981 Gramm-Latta budget resolution and then in 1985, after he jumped ship to the GOP and won election to the Senate, he helped engineer approval of the Gramm-Rudman deficit-trimming law. Even Gramm’s foes give him credit for his intellectual prowess--particularly in economics--and his political shrewdness.

His humor has bite, even when directed against himself. “My momma says I became an economist because I didn’t have enough personality to be an accountant,” he tells audiences. The truth is, even Gramm’s admirers question whether he has the personal warmth to generate support in a battle for the presidency, and his conscientious but uninspiring delivery of his convention keynote speech did little to allay such doubts.

KEMP--One of the first proponents of drastic tax-rate cutting and supply-side economics, the former pro football quarterback and New York congressman has labored long and hard to demonstrate that conservatism has a human side.

He popularized the term “safety net” early in the Reagan presidency and has been the Bush Administration’s foremost advocate of enterprise zones to aid urban ghettos.

But some Republicans are put off by the 57-year-old Kemp’s effusive style and unorthodox ideas. He sometimes seems to get more credit from Democrats than from the Republican White House for his efforts to promote urban welfare.

But Kemp’s supporters were cheered by an Associated Press poll of Houston convention delegates, which showed Kemp to be their first choice for President in 1996.

Critics recall that Kemp’s 1988 bid for the GOP nomination failed largely because he was unable to focus his ideas and his energy, and they question whether he has changed enough to succeed in 1996.

QUAYLE--After nearly four years in the vice presidency, the 45-year-old Quayle must face the reality that his political future is out of his hands. If Bush fails to overcome his big present disadvantage in the polls, most Republicans privately say, Quayle would be eliminated as a presidential possibility in 1996.

And even if Bush wins, Quayle will still have his work cut out for him, as evidenced by results of the AP delegate poll, which showed him far behind Kemp in the competition for 1996. Still, if Bush-Quayle are returned to the White House in November, the junior partner will have opportunities unmatched by any of his rivals to win the attention of the national media and solidify himself with the party hierarchy. And in Bush’s second term he probably would be given more freedom to chart his own ideological and political course.

Of course, with the start of the 1996 campaign more than three years away, plenty of time remains for other possibilities to emerge to contend with in the ideological borders that are still taking shape.

Based on their records so far, those who seem to come under the Helping Hands label include James A. Baker III, the 62-year-old secretary of state and incoming White House chief of staff who, if he could engineer a come-from-behind Bush upset, would vault to the forefront of the 1996 contenders.

And then there is William J. Bennett, 49, Bush’s former drug war director whose high-brow brand of populism gives him a visceral appeal to conservatives. Also in this group are two governors: Pete Wilson, 59, of California and William F. Weld, 47, of Massachusetts, both of whom support a woman’s right to abortion.

Wilson’s biggest plus is his hold on California’s largest-of-all delegation to the nominating convention, but he will have to solve his state’s fiscal problems to take advantage of that. As for Weld, his aggressive approach to such social problems as welfare reform and education have won him respect among political insiders, but he needs to widen his public recognition.

Better suited to the Green Eyeshade group is Dick Cheney, 51, whose experience as defense secretary adds to his background in Congress, but who has had heart problems in the past.

Another who seems to fit here is former Delaware Gov. Pierre S. (Pete) du Pont IV, who as head of an organization called the Committee For Republican Leadership has been critical of Bush for not being aggressive enough in cutting taxes and spending.

MORE AND MORE YEARS: The GOP contest for 1996 already is under way. E1