No Longer in Anyone’s Pocket : Times poll shows Orange County as worried as any place else

Orange County is one of those bellwether American places on the map--like Cook County in the Chicago area--that regularly tell us something about our national politics. This year, the traditional Republican stronghold in Southern California has gained a different kind of attention from the national press corps: Somehow in this perilous economy, it is not so entirely predictable anymore.

A Times poll released this week found that President Bush’s post-Republican National Convention “bounce” now has brought him back from the nadir of some earlier well-publicized surveys taken in Orange County. Those polls had found that Democrat Bill Clinton was leading in a place where Republicanism always enjoys home-field advantage.

The latest results do obviously show some recovery for Bush after he stated his case at the convention last week. But even the seven-point lead for the President that turned up in The Times’ weekend polling contained its own warnings and messages about the public’s mood: This year Orange County isn’t just an indicator of Republican good feelings.

Many people feel strongly that the country is on the wrong track. They are worried about the economy, jobs and the deficit. They question the President’s handling of the economy, despite his attempts to blame the problem on Democrats in Congress. And both candidates have high negative ratings.

The dominant GOP voter registration in Orange County still makes it Republican Country. But economic dissatisfaction has produced breakaway Republicans this year such as home developer Kathryn Thompson and Western Digital Corp. Chairman Roger W. Johnson. And independents are defecting, too. These things fuel doubts that the President can carry California. They suggest some of the restiveness beyond the sunny GOP Gold Coast.

This year, instead of being a bellwether of certainty, Orange County is beginning to reflect a nation’s uneasy mood and troubled economy. And that may say more about the how deeply the economy worries folks and less about the county’s partisan politics.