CALIFORNIA ELECTIONS / U.S. SENATE : Seymour and Herschensohn Struggling in Orange County

Even in his home turf of Orange County, the most solidly Republican territory in California, GOP Sen. John Seymour is struggling to gain a big enough margin here to win election statewide, the Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

Seymour, a former mayor of Anaheim who also represented the area in the Assembly and then the state Senate for nine years, was leading Democrat Dianne Feinstein by 52% to 39% in the survey taken last weekend. But since 54% of the county’s voters are Republican and 34% are Democrat, Seymour’s support was falling just short of his party’s base.

In California’s other U.S. Senate race, Republican Bruce Herschensohn was leading Democrat Barbara Boxer by an even narrower margin, 49% to 41%.

Based on the patterns in past statewide races, the Republican candidates’ slim leads did not bode well for their chances.

Republicans traditionally look to Orange County for a victory margin of 200,000 votes to offset Democratic surpluses in Los Angeles and the Bay Area. In 1990, when Pete Wilson narrowly beat Feinstein in the race for governor, he barely reached that 200,000-vote benchmark when he carried Orange County 64% to 31%.

The Times poll contacted 1,067 Orange County registered voters. It has a sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The poll also questioned voters about Proposition 165, a constitutional amendment on the November ballot regarding state financing and welfare. The measure, proposed by Wilson, would give the governor expanded powers to cut state expenditures; it would reduce welfare benefits by up to 25%; cap cost-of-living adjustments on welfare programs and limit welfare payments to new state residents.

In Orange County, the poll found that nearly three-quarters of the electorate is still unaware of the measure. When the proposition was described, 51% said they would vote for it while 42% opposed it.

In the Senate races, one recent public poll found that support for the candidates statewide was almost the reverse of Orange County’s results.

In the Field Poll, completed July 28, former San Francisco Mayor Feinstein was leading Seymour 55% to 37%. Boxer, a Marin County congresswoman, was ahead of Herschensohn, 49% to 31% statewide. The error margin of the Field Poll, conducted by Mervin Field, was also 4 percentage points.