A Look at Clinton’s New TV Ad and Its Accuracy

Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton opened the fall campaign early by airing his first general election commercial Monday. The 60-second ad will air only a modest number of times in a handful of unidentified battleground states. But it outlines one of Clinton’s basic arguments for his campaign and anticipates attacks from the White House.

The Ad: “Something’s happening,” a narrator begins over pictures of Clinton campaigning during his bus tours. “People are ready. Because they’ve had enough--enough of seeing their incomes fall behind and their jobs on the line.” (The picture shows faces of people in the crowd at Clinton rallies.) “Enough of a government that just doesn’t work. They’re ready for change. And changing people’s lives, that’s the work of his life.” (Clinton is pictured greeting supporters.) “Twelve years battling the odds in one of our nation’s poorest states. Arkansas now leads the nation in job growth. Incomes are rising at twice the national rate. Seventeen thousand people moved from welfare to work. That’s progress, and that’s what we need now. Change. Real solutions. Bill Clinton has an economic plan to rebuild America that invests in our own people. Education. Training. Eight million new jobs in the next four years. A new direction. Those making over $200,000 a year have to pay more. The rest of us get a break.” (Clinton is pictured working in his Statehouse office.) “It’s a plan to put people first again. And six Nobel prize economists say it will work. But don’t take their word; read it yourself.” (Text on the screen gives viewers an address to write for the economic plan--P.O. Box 8025, Little Rock, Ark. 72203.) “For people. For a change. Bill Clinton for President.”

Analysis: This ad tries to capitalize on a desire for change, using the word change four times. It bears some similarity to Clinton’s first primary-campaign ad last February in New Hampshire. That one also invited people to write for a copy of his plan. The ad is also basically accurate, or at least within reason. Arkansas does lead the nation in job growth now, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, but trailed the national average in the 1980s when Clinton was governor. In 1990, the most recent year available, incomes in the state did rise 4.1%, compared with an average of 2.1% nationally, but the Bush campaign notes that it trailed the national average during the 1980s. The statistic about how many people moved from welfare to work is possibly misleading, because it does not subtract the number who moved from working to welfare. As for the claim that Clinton’s program would create 8 million new jobs, that is just speculation and probably optimistic. Still, it is about half the number that Bush promised four years ago. In 1988, Bush said he would create 30 million jobs in eight years; he has created about 1 million in four. The Bush campaign, of course, argues that Clinton’s economic program would wipe out 2 million jobs, since Clinton has proposed moderate additional cuts in defense and some increase in taxes on the wealthy plus reforming health care costs. This ad is also probably as much for the benefit of the press as TV viewers. But its release did give Clinton some positive publicity, which aides concede has been lacking lately.