Clinton Ads Attack Bush on Jobs, Detail Economic Plan

The Clinton campaign released two new television commercials this week, one of them the first negative TV ad of the general presidential election campaign. The campaign refused to reveal where or how often its ads will run, but privately aides conceded that they are following a targeted approach rather than a national one. The first 30-second ad, titled “Curtains,” reportedly is airing in 11 battleground states: Michigan, Illinios, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, Maine, Connecticut, Oregon, Missouri, Pennsylvania and Louisiana.

The Ad: It begins with an unseen narrator, matched by text on the screen saying, “1988.” The image cuts to George Bush in his 1988 acceptance speech, saying, “Thirty million jobs in the next eight years.” What follows is images of Bush intercut with economic statistics announced by a narrator. “1990--America’s jobless rate hits a three-year high,” the narrator says. “I’m not prepared to say we’re in a recession,” the President is saying. “March 1992--Jobless rate hits a six-year high,” the narrator says, as does the text on the screen. “The economy is strengthening,” says Bush. “George Bush vetoes unemployment compensation,” the narrator and the text say. “The economy continues to grow,” says Bush. “July 1992--unemployment is the highest in eight years,” the narrator says. “If George Bush doesn’t understand the problem . . . how can he solve it? We can’t afford four more years.”

Analysis: The ad is technically misleading in parts. When the narrator says the jobless rate hit a three-year high in 1990, for instance, the clip that follows of Bush is from Nov. 8, 1991, a year later. When the narrator says the jobless rate hit a six-year high in March, 1992, the clip of Bush is from Nov. 4, 1991, five months earlier. To be precise, Bush did not comment directly on the unemployment figures on the dates they were made public. In a larger sense, however, it is true that Bush continued to depict the economy as more robust than even his own advisers acknowledged through much of the campaign. Debates of how candid the President should be even provoked confrontation among Bush aides earlier this year. But the matching of video and words in this ad is not always accurate. It should be noted, too, that Clinton was the first to resort to negative advertising. On the campaign stump, however, both sides have been on the attack for months.

The second 30-second Clinton ad, titled “Rebuild America,” concerns Clinton’s plan for the economy.

The Ad: Clinton is speaking in shirt sleeves looking just off camera. The images of the candidate are intercut at rock-video speed with text that reinforces key phrases of his message. “We’ve been under trickle-down economics for 12 years, just keep taxes low on the wealthy and see what happens,” Clinton says. “Well, I’ll tell you what’s happened. Most Americans are working harder for less money. (The text says ‘Income is Down.’) Unemployment’s up. (The words ‘Higher Unemployment’ appear.) Health care costs are exploding. (The words ‘Failed Healthcare System’ appear.) We are not doing what it takes to compete and win. I’ve worked hard on a different plan. Let’s give incentives to invest in new jobs. (‘New Jobs,’ the text says.) Let’s spend more on education and training. Let’s provide basic health care to all Americans. (‘Cut Health Care Costs,’ the text says.) Putting our people first, rebuilding this economy, making us competitive. If we do those things, we’ll compete and win and we’ll bring this country back.” The text on screen gives an 800 number to call for a copy of Clinton’s plan.

Analysis: Clinton’s economic plan pledges to invest $20 billion a year into roads, bridges and other projects he says will create new jobs. He also calls for new spending for education and for investment tax credits--in effect, focused capital gains tax cuts--aimed at targeted industries if the investments are held a certain length of time. Clinton’s health care proposals lack specifics, however. He proposes to pay for all of this with defense cuts and a tax increase on businesses and Americans with family incomes exceeding $200,000 a year. Economists argue that Clinton, like Bush, also has built in overly optimistic growth estimates into his plan, thereby underestimating the likely size of the deficit.