TIMES ORANGE COUNTY POLL : President Still Running Just Even With Clinton : Despite a stepped-up local campaign, Bush’s standing remains about the same as in last poll a month ago.

Halfway between the Republican National Convention and Election Day, President Bush is still locked in a dead heat with Democrat Bill Clinton among the Republican Party’s crucial Orange County voters, according to a new Times Orange County Poll.

The four-day poll, which was concluded Sunday, found Clinton with 42% of the vote in Orange County compared to 41% for Bush, a difference that is within the survey’s margin of error. The results are virtually unchanged from a Times Poll in Orange County almost a month ago, despite a stepped-up campaign by the President which included a visit to Anaheim with former President Ronald Reagan two weeks ago.

The poll also indicated that the outcome would not be altered if prospective independent candidate Ross Perot enters the race.

Perot would win about one in five Orange County votes, a stronger showing than recent national polls have found. But his support is drawn almost equally from the two major candidates, and it is not enough to make him a contender in Orange County.

In a three-way race, Clinton was favored by 35% of the Orange County electorate compared to 33% for Bush and 22% for Perot.

The Times Orange County Poll, conducted by Mark Baldassare & Associates, contacted a random sample of 600 Orange County registered voters by telephone from Thursday through Sunday. It has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The margin is higher for subgroups, such as those most likely to vote.

Orange County is California’s greatest Republican stronghold and the place to which GOP candidates turn for large winning margins to offset the state’s Democratic bases in the Bay Area and Los Angeles. As a result, it would be almost impossible for Bush to win in California if he merely ties Clinton in Orange County.

In 1988, when Bush beat Democrat Michael Dukakis in California by just more than 3% of the vote, he won 68% support in Orange County. But the Times survey showed just how different this election is for Bush, since only 58% of those who voted for him in 1988 said they would do so again in November.

At the same time, Clinton won the support of nearly a quarter of the Orange County voters who backed Bush in 1988, and he hung onto almost all of the county’s Dukakis voters.

Republican Vicki Lloyd of Lake Forest is one of the 1988 Bush supporters whom the President will lose this year. Lloyd, 42, a computer consultant, said she has never voted for a Democratic presidential candidate. But this year, the struggling economy has caused her to support Clinton even though she is concerned about the Democrats’ reputation for activist governments.

“The economy is rotten; George Bush has had his chance, so throw the bum out,” Lloyd said. “I’m basically frustrated, and I’m ready for change for change’s sake. I don’t know if Clinton can do better, but he’s different.”

Denise Longo, an out-of-work Anaheim mother of three children, also supported Bush in the past. But this year, the President may lose her vote to Perot.

“The job situation is terrible, and Bush really hasn’t done anything,” said Longo, 37, a former waitress. “To me, the most important thing is people working and people being able to buy food and pay rent . . . but he walks around the subject.”

Nationwide, Clinton has held a double-digit lead in polls for several weeks, and in California his edge recently has exceeded 20%. With such sagging support for the President and just five weeks left in the campaign, some Bush strategists say the President could only be helped if Perot re-entered the race and shook up the electorate.

But in Orange County, the Times’ survey suggests that Perot would not be a help.

With Perot in the race, only half of Orange County’s Republican voters said they would vote for the President. A quarter of them would vote for Perot, and 17% would choose Clinton.

Even in a two-way race with Clinton, Bush was favored by just 60% of the county’s Republican voters, while 22% said they would vote Democratic.

The dynamics of the race also did not change significantly when the survey focused on the voters who said they were most likely to vote.

The support for Clinton and Bush was virtually unchanged among these voters in a two-way or three-way race. Perot’s support, however, dropped from 22% among all registered voters to 18% among those most likely to cast a ballot.

Just 10% of the electorate in Orange County is still undecided about the presidential race, the poll found.

On the issues, Orange County has been racked by bad economic news this year, and voters responded by ranking jobs and the economy by far and away the most important issue in the presidential race.

The jobless rate in Orange County rose to 6.7% in August, a tie for its highest level since August, 1983. Earlier this month, pollsters at UC Irvine also reported that consumer confidence in Orange County had hit a new low, dropping below the national average for the first time.

About 60% of the electorate in Orange County said the economy is “the most important issue . . . in deciding whom to vote for in this presidential election.” Education was the second-ranking issue at 12%.

At the same time, the poll suggested that many of the issues that have been the focus of the Republican campaign this year were not considered important by most voters. Family values and abortion were each cited by only about one in 20 of the voters surveyed.

On foreign affairs, Bush was rated superior to Clinton by a 4-1 ratio. But just 2% of the electorate said it was an important factor in their choice for president. Bush was also rated 2 to 1 over Clinton as the better choice for holding down taxes. But again, only 9% of the voters said that was an important issue in the race.

In contrast, Orange County voters split evenly on which candidate would do a better job promoting economic prosperity. And among the 60% of those who said the economy was the most important issue in the campaign, 46% favored Clinton while 36% supported Bush.

But Republican voter Debbie Piscitelli of Laguna Hills said she thinks that Bush should not be blamed for the economy because his plans have been blocked by the Democrat-controlled Congress.

“I think it’s really beyond his control,” she said. “I don’t think he’s doing as good of a job explaining it as he might. The (Republican campaign is) focusing on the wrong issue, maybe.”

Recently, the Republican campaign also has increased its attack on Clinton for not serving in the military and for the discrepancies in his explanation about why he was not drafted during the Vietnam War. But that issue, too, appeared to miss the mark in Orange County.

Nearly seven in 10 voters said they do not consider the issue important in making their choice for president. Only 16% said it was very important, and another 17% said it was somewhat important. Even among Republicans, 60% considered the issue unimportant.

Among all of the possible White House aspirants--including Perot, Vice President Dan Quayle and Democratic vice presidential nominee Al Gore--none was overwhelmingly popular in Orange County.

When voters were asked if they have a favorable opinion of the Republican and Democratic nominees, Bush and Clinton scored about even. Clinton was rated favorably by 42% and Bush by 41%. Both candidates’ ratings had dropped some since a Times Poll in Orange County last month.

More than half of Orange County’s voters--53%--had an unfavorable opinion of Bush, compared to 49% who had an unfavorable opinion of Clinton.

Gore received the highest favorable rating of 49%. A third rated him unfavorably.

Quayle had the lowest ratings of the group. His unfavorable rating was 60%, with a third rating him favorably.

The survey also found that Orange County’s opinion of Perot is sharply diminished from the days last spring when his Irvine headquarters generated 190,000 signatures to put his name on the California ballot.

The number of voters who have a favorable opinion of Perot has dropped from 57% last May to 36% today, a lower rating than Bush’s or Clinton’s. The number of voters who have an unfavorable opinion of Perot has doubled, from 25% in May to 50% today.

Bush, Clinton Stand Even in O.C.

President Bush is tied with Democrat Bill Clinton in a two-way race among Orange County registered voters. Even an eventual active campaign by Ross Perot would have no effect, as Perot, whose support here has decreased significantly since May, would draw equally from both other candidates. The economy is easily the most cutting issue, and among those who see it as most important in their voting decision, Clinton gets the nod.

If the presidential election were held today, would you vote for . . . ?

Aug. 22-23 Sept. 24-27 Clinton/Gore 42% 42% Bush/Quayle 49% 41% Other 1% 7% Don’t know 8% 10%

What if Ross Perot re-enters the race and actively campaigns for president? If the presidential election were held today, would you vote for . . . ?

May 17-19 September 24-27 Clinton 16% 35% Bush 36% 33% Perot 42% 22% Other, don’t know 6% 10%

In deciding whom to vote for in this presidential election, which of the following is the most important issue to you? Jobs/economy: 60% Education: 12% Holding down taxes: 9% Family values: 6% Abortion: 4% All others: 8% Don’t know: 1% Voting by Issue: What’s Most Important

Economy Education Holding down taxes Clinton/Gore 46% 57% 22% Bush/Quayle 36% 29% 65% Perot 6% 6% 6% Other, don’t know 12% 8% 7%

Sources: Los Angeles Times Poll, Times Orange County Poll

Candidates Losing Positive Images

Both President Bush and Gov. Bill Clinton are viewed less favorably in Orange County than they were just a month ago. The President’s “unfavorables” have increased, while Clinton’s have remained level. Putative candidate Ross Perot has lost even more ground since May. While Bush and Clinton are perceived as about equally able to promote economic prosperity, Bush is the clear leader when it comes to handling foreign affairs and keeping taxes down.

Is your opinion of George Bush/ Bill Clinton/Dan Quayle/Al Gore favorable or unfavorable. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ross Perot?

Aug. Sept. 22-23 24-27 Bush Favorable 53% 41% Unfavorable 46% 53% Don’t know 1% 6% Clinton Favorable 47% 42% Unfavorable 49% 49% Don’t know 4% 9% Perot Favorable * 57% 36% Unfavorable 25% 50% Don’t know 18% 14% Quayle Favorable 41% 33% Unfavorable 57% 60% Don’t know 2% 7% Gore Favorable 47% 49% Unfavorable 27% 35% Don’t know 26% 16%

* First set of opinions about Perot recorded in May, 1992

Who do you think would do a better job of promoting economic prosperity/handling foreign affairs/holding down taxes?

PROMOTING PROSPERITY:

Aug. Sept. 22-23 24-27 Bush 45% 38% Clinton 40% 39% Neither, other 7% 16% Don’t know 8% 7% FOREIGN AFFAIRS: Bush 77% 71% Clinton 15% 18% Neither other 2% 7% Don’t know 6% 4% TAXES: Bush 58% 49% Clinton 22% 25% Neither other 8% 19% Don’t know 12% 7%

Source: Times Orange County Poll, Los Angeles Times Poll

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Orange County Poll was conducted by Mark Baldassare & Associates. The telephone survey of 600 Orange County registered voters was conducted Thursday through Sunday on weekday nights and weekend days using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers. The margin of error for the total sample is plus or minus 4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. That means it is 95% certain that the results are within 4 percentage points of what they would be if every adult registered voter were interviewed. All respondents were guaranteed anonymity; however, some of those polled agreed to be re-interviewed for this story.