ASIA : Pledge of Free Elections Sends S. Korea Parties Scrambling

The $64,000 question in South Korean political circles today is: “Was he serious?”

Was President Roh Tae Woo sincere when he made his so-called “bombshell announcement” that he would resign from the governing Democratic Liberal Party and appoint a Cabinet of “unimpeachable neutrality” to ensure free and fair presidential elections later this year?

Indeed, Roh did resign on returning from his trip to China this week, but the real test is expected to come when he announces his new Cabinet in the next several days. If his choices are truly nonpartisan--and many believe they will be--his actions are likely to throw open the presidential race by ushering in the first truly neutral elections in South Korean history.

Many analysts had been predicting a dull election with a ruling party victory as the inevitable result of fraud and manipulation by the government machinery. But Roh’s neutrality pledge has turned that assumption on its ear and set all parties scrambling.

The political calculus: a plus for longtime opposition leader Kim Dae Jung of the Democratic Party; a minus for majority party standard-bearer Kim Young Sam. And Chung Ju Yung, the former Hyundai chairman now running as candidate of the United People’s Party, will probably also benefit.

Roh, who will step down from office next February, is thought to have made his dramatic move to safeguard his record as South Korea’s first democratic president. He is also thought to have wanted to undercut fellow party member Kim, who has given him relentless political heat over widespread election fraud in Yongi County earlier this year and for awarding a telecommunications franchise to one of his relatives.

Although some analysts express fear that this could be yet another ruling party ploy, others say Roh has raised public expectations so high that it will be impossible for him to back down even if he should want to.

Since Roh declared his neutrality, Kim and his supporters have scrambled to keep together a party that was cobbled together in 1990 from the ruling regime and two opposition camps. Some fear that Roh’s announcement will lead members from his faction and others to jump ship and either form another party or throw their support elsewhere. Already, 12 provincial members of the ruling party have announced resignations, and other National Assembly members are said to be thinking of following suit.

“President Roh’s decision was an irresponsible act for our party, but we believe this crisis could be turned to our benefit,” said majority party spokesman Park Tong Sam. He added that the decision frees party members from following Roh’s dictates and forces them to show less arrogance, enhancing their appeal to voters.

Kim Dae Jung, now in his third and probably final bid for top office, says Roh’s neutrality pledge will prove a boon by allowing closet supporters to openly back his party. He says he is already seeing a surge of support in rival strongholds such as Taegu, where 1,000 taxi drivers and chanting women gave him a rousing welcome recently.

“The Democratic Party has always been the object of election fraud, but without that possibility, people feel in general that we stand a good chance,” Kim said.