CAMPAIGN DATELINE / PAUL FELDMAN : A weekly window on the 1992 elections. : Negative Campaign Ads May Be Losing Their Punch

Bracing yourself for that last-minute slew of attack ads that liken candidates to cockroaches and ballot measures to bilge?

This fall, negative campaign commercials may have considerably less impact than in the past, according to a UCLA political science professor engaged in a long-running research study of political ads.

“I think there is a fundamental transformation of the entire campaign atmosphere this year,” said Prof. Shanto Iyengar. “People have come to realize there are very serious national problems and they are looking for evidence that the candidates have some kind of an idea on how to address these problems.”

In his ongoing study, Iyengar has directed subjects to view videotapes of Los Angeles local TV newscasts. In place of ads for toilet bowl cleaners and antiperspirants, the professor substitutes political ads. The subjects, who are not told the purpose of the research, are then asked to comment.

During the 1990 gubernatorial campaign, Iyengar said, “attack ads worked especially well for Pete Wilson.” This year, however, subjects are responding more favorably to messages “that say I have a plan to address problems X, Y and Z,” he said.

Iyengar’s advice is to take all political advertising with a grain of salt. “By definition, a 30-second ad is a distortion, period,” he said.

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Explain the $9: An old adage of investigative reporting is: Follow the money trail.

However, Campaign Dateline has hit a brick wall in seeking answers on where Sen. John Seymour distributed the charitable contributions he reported on tax forms he recently released publicly--a total of $9 for 1989 and $25 for 1990.

Asked how he came to give only $9, Seymour told a Times reporter: “How am I supposed to know? I didn’t report all of my contributions. It was more trouble than it’s worth. I go to church, I give in cash. I don’t even have a paper trail on it.”

Campaign spokesman Jeff Weir said Seymour’s accountant “obviously found two receipts that looked like they qualified as charitable contributions and itemized them.” He added that Seymour gave to charity in other ways and faxed The Times a list of 46 organizations--ranging from the Westminster Shelter for the Homeless to the Congressional Staff Club of the U.S. Congress--of which Seymour is a member.

In 1991, after his appointment to the Senate, Seymour did report donating $6,340, including $800 in the form of patio furniture, cabinets and other property to an Orange County charity. His rival, Dianne Feinstein, and her wealthy husband, investment banker Richard C. Blum, gave an average of $121,000 a year to charity in the past five years. Among the recipients were Congregation Emanu-El in San Francisco, $10,000, and Parents of Watts, $5,000.

Presidential Voter Turnout

Statewide voter turnout in presidential elections has been in decline since the all-time high of 88.38% in November, 1964. Here are turnout percentages for the last seven presidential general elections in California.

ELECTION REGISTERED DATE VOTERS % TURNOUT Nov. 8, 1988 14,004,873 72.81 Nov. 6, 1984 13,073,630 74.93 Nov. 4, 1980 11,361,623 77.24 Nov. 2, 1976 9,980,488 81.53 Nov. 7, 1972 10,466,215 82.13 Nov. 5, 1968 8,587,673 85.75 Nov. 3, 1964 8,184,143 88.38

Source: Statement of Vote Report, office of the secretary of state, Sacramento

Compiled by researcher Tracy Thomas

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Follow the money--Part 2: Republicans are charging that the state Democratic Party violated federal election law by transferring $479,000 to the campaign to defeat Proposition 165. That’s Wilson’s ballot initiative that would cut welfare benefits and give the governor new powers over the budget.

The California Bush-Quayle campaign claims that the money went to the No on 165 campaign but was used solely to register voters in Democratic strongholds and thus benefit the entire party ticket. The “laundering” maneuver was designed to evade Federal Elections Commission rules, the GOP charged.

Bob Mulholland, the state Democratic Party’s political director, counters that the party is free to make whatever contributions it wants to state campaigns--for candidates or initiatives. In this case, the party stepped in to fight what it calls a “power grab” by the governor. “We have a common enemy and that’s Pete Wilson,” said Mulholland, who dismissed the GOP charges as “hogwash.”

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It’s all in the fists: With Bill Clinton’s patriotism under question by George Bush because of overseas activities while in graduate school, now comes disturbing evidence about the President’s own running mate--from a highly unlikely source.

The top picture of African National Congress leader Nelson Mandela was published by Republican U.S. Senate candidate Bruce Herschensohn in the fall, 1990, edition of his political newsletter “Imperatives.” Although Mandela has consistently denied being a Communist, the caption under the picture reads: “Nelson Mandela as he gives the communist salute to thousands at a rock concert in London.”

The bottom picture is of Vice President Dan Quayle at a campaign appearance in Los Angeles last week. You be the judge.

EXIT LINE

“If you have to barbecue the Mojave ground squirrel to feed your family, barbecue the squirrel.”

Republican Assembly candidate Kathleen M. Honeycutt of Bakersfield, speaking in opposition to the Endangered Species Act at a candidates forum.

Campaign Dateline appears every Monday.