This Year, 1990 Predictions May Finally Come True : California: Unfriendly reapportionment and the budget fiasco, coupled with voter frustration, set stage for the ultimate political revenge.

Is this really the year that incumbents take it in the ear?

Remember 1990? Voter anger sky rocketed as a result of budget messes, scandals and policy gridlock. California voters passed legislative term limits-- narrowly--but nearly every congressional and state legislative incumbent who ran for reelection won. Why should this election year be any different?

In 1990, lawmakers were protected by an incumbent-friendly reapportionment. Last year, California Republicans joined their newly elected governor, Pete Wilson, to block Democratic control of redistricting. The courts eventually took over the job of redrawing district lines. That meant more competitive races and less political protection for sitting legislators.

In the 24th Congressional District, liberal, eight-term incumbent Anthony Beilenson (D-Tarzana) is strongly challenged by conservative Assemblyman Tom McClintock (R-Thousand Oaks). Beilenson, who drew the short straw when Westside congressional seats were refigured, is running in a new district far more conservative than his old one. He’ll have to campaign hard to win, something Beilenson hasn’t had to do recently. McClintock is an unreconstructed right-winger. He scorns Beilenson as a “tax-and-spend liberal” and unceasingly rails against the excesses of the Democratic-controlled Congress.

The race for the 42nd Congressional District pits veteran Democratic Rep. George E. Brown, chair of the House Committee on Space, Science and Technology, against Dick Rutan, who piloted the Voyager around the world. Brown, a liberal, has survived a series of tough races in the San Bernadino-Riverside area, which has shifted from rural to industrial, suburban and more Republican and conservative. Rutan, flush with celebrity status and commanding significant GOP support, is not exactly “Mr. Smith Goes to Washington.” Nonetheless, this race may indicate just how angry voters are, since Brown is a legislative powerhouse and Rutan is a political neophyte.

State legislative incumbents, whether running for reelection or higher office, are at risk this year because they carry the baggage of state budget fight.

In 1990, the federal budget mess threatened few California politicians because it had little direct effect on state voters. Sacramento’s 63-day fracas this year was heavily covered by the state’s media and caused real pain to some Californians. Polls showed that voters negatively rated all politicians involved.

That’s why 13-term incumbent John Vasconcellos (D-Santa Clara) is in a hard fight against Republican challenger Tim Jeffries in the 22nd Assembly District. Redistricting would be enough to make Vasconcellos nervous, with Democratic registration tumbling from 60% to 48%. But, as chair of the Assembly Ways and Means Committee and a long-time ally of Speaker Willie Brown, Vasconcellos symbolizes, according to one analyst, “the ossification of the state Legislature” and its failed role in the budget process.

Polls showing voter frustration and pessimism at historic highs indicate problems for incumbents of all stripes. Add to that the possibility of the “Ross Perot” factor coming into play.

One of the quirks of the 1990 election was an increase in the percentage of votes cast for third-party and independent candidates in congressional and legislative contests. There was a decline in major-party vote totals for incumbents and challengers, while support for minor-party challengers rose.

In California’s 1st Congressional District, the narrow victory of Republican challenger Frank Riggs over Democratic incumbent Doug Bosco was cemented by a Peace and Freedom candidate who garnered 15% of the vote. And Democrat Deirdre Alpert’s victory over GOP incumbent Sunny Mojonnier in San Diego was helped by a Libertarian candidate who collected 11% of the vote.

Voters disenchanted with the major parties could turn to third-party candidates, potentially affecting several races.

This election cycle began with Wilson and the GOP, victors in reapportionment, poised to end Democratic control of the Legislature and congressional delegation. Are Republicans now poised to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory?

The party remains mired in internecine warfare between the Religious Right and Wilson moderates. Harsh social stances in their state and national platforms have alienated many voters. Public dissatisfaction can mostly be traced to the soured state and national economies presided over by GOP chief executives. The bottom has fallen out of George Bush’s and Wilson’s approval ratings. Republican candidates are feeling their drag.

Four-term incumbent state Sen. Bob Beverly (R-Redondo Beach) is running scared. Reapportionment has reshaped his 27th Senate District. In the 1992 primary, Beverly, a moderate, received only 45% of his party’s vote. Much of his area has been hit by aerospace job losses. The senator’s Democratic challenger, Brian Finlander, is working to link Republican Beverly with the district’s economic problems.

There is another cross-current in state races. What about the Year of the Woman? Again, remember 1990? That turned out to be the Six Months of the Woman. Anger over choice was not enough. Gains made by female candidates in 1990 primaries, including Dianne Feinstein’s victory over John K. Van de Kamp in California’s Democratic gubernatorial primary, eroded in November. Foreign policy and economics rose on the political agenda, which tended to help male candidates.

This year, foreign policy has faded. Fear over the moribund economy has been transformed into anger over the inability of the Establishment to respond.

The desire for change and frustration with the status quo are greater now. Women, more than men, are perceived as agents of change. And that has helped women as candidates.

Of the record number of California women running this year, Democratic women outnumber their GOP counterparts on the November ballot. A recent Times poll also showed that a plurality of California voters viewed the Democratic Party as better able to solve the state’s problems. Candidates, like Feinstein and Barbara Boxer, could be helped as much by their party as by their gender.

When the dust settles in November, Californians may discover 1992 is not the year of the woman, or that of the anti-incumbent. Anger and frustration, together with competitive races, may make 1992 the year of the voter.