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COLUMN RIGHT/ JOHN B. TAYLOR : Economic Reasons to Vote Bush : The President’s plan grasps the global downturn and how to turn it around.

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<i> John B. Taylor is an economics professor at Stanford University. </i>

America’s top economic priority is to get back to the strong expansion mode of 1982 to 1990. That longest peacetime expansion in U.S. history created more than 20 million jobs, increased real income for all income groups and significantly reduced the poverty rate.

Another such expansion will do much more, if we establish an environment for growth into the next century. Economic analysis makes it clear President Bush’s program--accomplished, under way and proposed--will deliver the strong and lasting expansion we need.

The Bush program is based on a coherent explanation of why the American economy--indeed the entire world economy--has slowed. Economists agree that reductions in defense spending, productivity improvements at businesses and shifts to lower debt and lower inflation have temporarily slowed growth. Each adjustment has caused pain, but each creates a better economy. The adjustments have been less painful in America than in any other major country.

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The Bush income tax cut proposals would get the economy growing faster, especially when consumers are fearful of tax hikes. The essence of the budget deficit problem is runaway spending, not insufficient taxes: The government’s share of spending is up despite defense cuts, and tax revenues are not down.

Hence, the President wants to limit the growth of “entitlement” spending to population plus inflation. This is a necessary complement to other spending limits he has achieved, though he said giving in to demands for a tax hike by a Democratic Congress to get the limits was a mistake that will not be repeated.

The Bush investment incentives--capital gains tax reductions, investment tax allowances and cuts in small business taxes--would also stimulate growth. But remember that lower inflation is a valuable pro-investment and job-creating incentive achieved during the Bush years.

The President’s legal reform proposals would increase growth by reducing litigation expenses and encouraging entrepreneurship. His financial reform legislation (including interstate branch banking) would increase business lending. Research tax credits and shifting federal spending toward research also bring growth.

The current regulatory freeze has aimed to reduce costly regulations. The 1990 Clean Air Act increased regulation, but the President’s insistence on strict limits held costs well below what Congress wanted. The President also got a tradable emission allowance to control pollution.

Education is a huge contributor to economic growth. Competition and greater opportunity for poor children provided by full school choice--public and private--is essential to improve K-12 education. The Bush voucher proposal encourages full educational choice. Bush successfully battled Congress to make sure a large fraction of money from the 1990 child care bill went directly to parents. His America 2000 program supports grassroots efforts to reach the educational goal he got all 50 governors to support in 1989.

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The enterprise zone program would create growth in the inner cities. Reforming welfare--for example, by providing incentives to attend school or by allowing people to have some small savings--would help people get off welfare. Vouchers for home ownership would also help the poor. The President’s health care program would provide credits of $3,750 for low-income families to buy health insurance, encourage competition among providers and ensure that workers who change jobs remain insured. The training plan provides vouchers for dislocated workers without mandating costs on firms and workers.

The Bush trade plan calls for a network of free trade areas throughout the world. The President has already made tremendous progress by initiating a North American Free Trade Area, getting the negotiating authority from Congress and completing the agreement. The President has held off protectionist pressures, reduced voluntary restraint agreements and negotiated lower trade barriers in Japan and elsewhere. Exports have boomed. The trade deficit is way down. American workers are now more competitive than they have been in 15 years. The U.S. cost of capital is now lower than Europe and comparable with Japan.

The Bush agenda is based on proven pro-growth principles. It is the most innovative growth plan in this election year. To add to his commitment, Bush has designated James Baker as economic coordinator with changes in the Cabinet as appropriate. Baker’s experience as Treasury secretary during the 1982-90 expansion and as secretary of State during the end of the Cold War make him uniquely qualified to implementthese sensible changes for America.

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