Arab World Will Be Watching on Nov. 3 : Foreign policy: Even with his party’s commitment to Israel, there’s hope in Clinton’s openness to the ‘global South.’

The emergence of the United States as the world’s sole superpower makes this year’s presidential election a matter of direct and immediate concern to the Arabs as well as to the rest of the world community. The U.S. commitment to a Middle East peace process and U.S. strategic and economic interests in the Arab region render Arab views--although unsolicited by the contenders--a relevant factor in future policy planning under either a Bush or a Clinton administration. For this reason, Arabs venture their assessment of the present campaign.

The prevailing impression is that Arabs, especially in Saudia Arabia and Kuwait, prefer the reelection of President Bush. (A number of Kuwaitis even voted for Bush in their parliamentary elections!) This can be explained as an expression of gratitude for Desert Storm which achieved Kuwait’s liberation and safeguarded Saudi Arabia. The impression is further reinforced by the ties of the oil lobby to the Republican Party. It is also true that some conservative rulers in the Gulf felt at ease with President Reagan and President Bush and were responsive and accommodating to their requests.

Another factor enhances the impression of an Arab preference for Bush and the Republican Party: the role and personal involvement of former Secretary of State James A. Baker III in the Arab-Israeli “peace process.” President Bush’s criticism of former Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir’s policies was perceived by some Palestinians as signaling a more objective U.S. policy. Moreover, conventional wisdom holds that a second-term U.S. president would be in a stronger position to resist the much-feared Israel lobby in Washington.

All in all, therefore, the impression that Arabs prefer Bush’s reelection appears to be based on firm logic. Such is not, however, necessarily the case. The flaw in the argument lies in the fact that many American commentators tend to read the Arab situation from a narrow Israeli or Gulf perspective. A more careful and insightful reading of Arab feelings and attitudes on the current U.S. election reveals a more varied, nuanced and informed Arab constituency.

One basic point must be understood first: The Arabs assume that none of the candidates for President will adopt or support their causes, nor would any of them support the broad international consensus of what constitutes the Palestinian national rights to self-determination. However, a growing body of Arab opinion sees potential for improved U.S.-Arab relations in a Clinton presidency. On the surface this might seem strange, given the Democratic Party platform’s absolute support for Israel. Where could the opportunity for improvement lie, from the Arab point of view?

The answer can be found in the approach to the problems of the countries of the developing world, or global South, anticipated in a Clinton presidency. A Clinton administration would certainly be more open to the aspirations of the global South, with struggles for human rights in Arab countries hitting perhaps a more responsive chord, especially in regard to Palestinian rights.

Furthermore, a Clinton administration would be more attentive to the urges in the Arab world for undertaking democratization. Unlike the Reagan and Bush administrations, a Clinton administration would not equate empowerment with “instability.” President Bush’s preference for dealing with familiar governing elites runs counter to strong urges for social change and economic parity in the Arab World. Moreover, some Arabs nourish a deep, albeit inarticulate, sense of anger toward President Bush for propping up Saddam Hussein’s regime and then proceeding to destroy the infrastructure of Iraq, severely penalizing its populace.

Perhaps the Arabs are reading too much into the liberal and progressive legacy of the Democratic Party. One thing, however, is certain. Arabs are like the American voters, split on who--Bush or Clinton--is more sensitive to their interests.