Huge Clinton Turnout: Was It O.C. Watershed?

A day after an enthusiastic, overflow rally for presidential contender Bill Clinton, Democrats on Friday were still basking in the aura of the moment: About 20,000 people had jammed into the Pacific Amphitheater as Clinton battered the Bush Administration and called on voters in “America’s most Republican county” to veer away from the GOP ticket.

Hype and hyperbole aside, a significant question remains. Does the fete mark a watershed, a tentative shift in Orange County toward a more balanced tug-of-war between Republicans and Democrats?

Most political experts said they doubt it. Clinton’s visit may have induced a traffic jam on the San Diego Freeway, but it probably represents little more than a political pothole for Republicanism in Orange County.

“I don’t think it means anything long term,” said Mark Petracca, a UC Irvine associate professor of political science. “These things happen, they just don’t normally happen here. . . . It would be a lot more significant if someone like (Rep.) Robert Dornan got knocked off, or a (Assemblyman) Gil Ferguson. That would be indicative of a true tide change in Orange County.”

While polls signal that the Arkansas governor may fare better in Orange County than any Democrat since Franklin D. Roosevelt, the only true indicator of a shift in the region’s reputation as a GOP bastion would be if a Clinton Administration is so successful that Republicans begin consistently backing Democratic candidates, experts say.

“Political campaigns are not what will change the county’s complexion. It’s how a government operates,” said Harvey Englander, a Newport Beach political consultant. “If a Clinton Administration succeeds, if there are jobs, if taxes aren’t raised considerably, that will open up a door for Republicans or swing Democrats to start saying, ‘Maybe we need to give some other Democrats a chance.’ ”

Petracca suggested a Clinton victory could spark an intense internal struggle within the county GOP, ultimately leading to a more moderate brand of Republicanism that would prove accommodating to women and minority viewpoints. As a result, some of the more conservative Republican “war horses” could get yanked out of office in favor of more moderate candidates, Petracca said.

Republican political consultant Dave Ellis, however, predicted that a Clinton victory--like the well-attended rally for the presidential candidate--would prove only a short detour from politics as usual in Orange County.

“If Clinton is elected, these fair-weather Republicans are going to realize after the first 100 days what the guy is all about and come back into the fold stronger and more aggressive than ever,” Ellis said. “I believe in history repeating itself. You have to go back to ’74 and Nixon’s resignation. Democrats actually became a majority in the county a few years later. And that didn’t hold up too long.”

Orange County Republican officials, meanwhile, suggested that the Clinton extravaganza on Thursday evening, which featured scores of Hollywood celebrities, was little more than a big-bucks effort to sway the electorate in Orange County, which the GOP counts on for a landslide vote to offset heavy Democratic support in San Francisco and Los Angeles.

“The bottom line is the Democrats have probably spent 10 times more in money and effort this year than they ever have before in Orange County to keep the vote margin down,” said Greg Haskin, county GOP executive director. “They cranked up all the glamour and the glitter and ignored all the budgetary concerns and put on the best show they could.

“It’s ironic,” Haskin added. “The Democrats are always walking around telling everyone they’re for the little guy and the Republicans are the fat cats. But they’ve probably outspent us 3-to-1 in Orange County.”

Democrats, however, insist the Clinton rally was indicative of a growing desire among people in Orange County and throughout the nation for change after a dozen years of Republicans in the White House.

“We never expected that kind of crowd--I was stunned by it,” said Howard Adler, county Democratic chairman. “Had anybody told me at the beginning that there would be people who couldn’t get into the amphitheater, I would have told them they were nuts.”

A number of Clinton supporters expressed anger over logistics snafus that kept thousands of people outside. Some said they queued up three hours before the event, only to be shut out while people who arrived later got in. Others complained about special color-coded badges that seemed to get Democratic loyalists into the amphitheater.

“We heard about the rally from a flyer that was left on my door,” said Toni Poper of Irvine. “Had we known 40,000 color-coded tickets were passed out, I wouldn’t have bothered showing up. So we left.”

Christopher Townsend, Clinton’s deputy California campaign director, apologized for the problems, saying organizers were “just overwhelmed by the crowd.” Townsend acknowledged that “human errors” may have occurred, but stressed that there was “no policy of exclusion.” In addition, entrance to the rally was slowed because of tight security measures at the gates.

He also said only a few thousand color-coded badges were issued, and they didn’t provide special entrance privileges into the amphitheater. Instead, the colored cards were given to longtime Democrats as a pass allowing them into roped-off areas near the stage in hopes of keeping Republican hecklers away from Clinton, Townsend said.

“We were saddened that everyone couldn’t get in to see him,” Townsend said. “If we had known ahead of time we would have picked a facility that could have held that many people. This was bigger than anything in California that ever happened for Dukakis or Mondale, even anything I can remember for Carter.”

CLINTON’S ROOTS: Democrat returns to where his public career got started. A26

BUSH BLASTS CHANGE: President warns of the perils of a Clinton presidency. A26

PEROT IN PERSON: Independent to speak at two East Coast rallies. A29