TIMES ORANGE COUNTY POLL : Bush, Clinton Still in Virtual Tie; Perot Gains : In Senate races, Seymour, Feinstein are in dead heat; Herschensohn improves in race against Boxer.

President Bush’s sagging support in California’s Republican stronghold of Orange County has not budged since shortly after the Republican National Convention, leaving him locked in a virtual tie with Democratic nominee Bill Clinton just one week before Election Day, a new Times Orange County Poll has found.

The survey, which was conducted last weekend by by Mark Baldassare and Associates, found Clinton with 35% of the vote in Orange County, compared to 34% for Bush. Independent candidate Ross Perot scored higher in Orange County than he did in national polls, but he still trailed the leaders with 24%.

In Orange County, unlike other areas, Perot appeared to be pulling more of his support from Republicans than Democrats, making him a brake on the hopes Bush might have to improve his local standing.

But poll respondents said it was the economy that really hurt Bush’s chances in Orange County, where the survey found that just half of the voters who supported the President in 1988 were planning to do so again.

In California’s two U.S. Senate races, the survey found that the Republican candidates are struggling to gain a winning margin in Orange County large enough to offset the state’s Democratic areas in Los Angeles and the Bay Area.

Republican Sen. John Seymour, who was appointed to the U.S. Senate last year by Gov. Pete Wilson, was in a dead heat with Democrat Dianne Feinstein among Orange County voters. Seymour, a former state senator and mayor from Anaheim, was supported by just 44% of the electorate compared to 45% for Feinstein.

The result is virtually the same as it was in the last Times Orange County Poll a month ago. Statewide, a Los Angeles Times Poll published Sunday found Feinstein with a 19-point lead over Seymour.

In the contest to replace retiring U.S. Sen. Alan Cranston, the survey found that Republican Bruce Herschensohn has gained in his race against Democrat Barbara Boxer. Herschensohn, a former television commentator, was favored by 50% of the county’s voters, compared to 39% for Rep. Boxer (D-Greenbrae).

Herschensohn increased his Orange County lead over Boxer in the last month by about 7 points, the survey found. And his position has improved statewide, where The Times poll during the weekend found him trailing the Democratic congresswoman by just nine points.

Traditionally, however, Orange County has been the place where Republican strategists look for their winning margins in California, and Herschensohn’s lead in The Times Orange County poll still falls short of what he needs to win.

Herschensohn’s 11-point lead over Boxer means he is still running below the 20-point registration advantage that Republicans enjoy over Democrats in Orange County. Historically, Republicans have needed all of their Orange County voters and more to win statewide.

In 1990, when Republican Pete Wilson narrowly beat Feinstein in the race for governor, he carried Orange County 64% to 31%. On the other hand, Republican Ed Zschau carried Orange County 62% to 35% in the 1986 U.S. Senate race when he narrowly lost statewide to Democrat Cranston.

In the presidential race, it has been more than 50 years since a Democratic candidate carried Orange County.

Clinton, who drew more than 20,000 people to an Orange County appearance last week, said he did not expect to win the county. But he planned to keep the President’s support well below what a Republican needs to win in California.

Clinton was ahead of Bush in California by 47% to 28%, according to a Los Angeles Times Poll of the state published Monday. Perot had 20% statewide. Nationally, a Times Mirror poll released Sunday found Clinton leading with 44% and Bush with 34%. Perot had 19%.

Bush barely carried California over Democrat Michael Dukakis in 1988 when he won 68% support in Orange County. But this year, both Clinton and Perot were digging deeply into the President’s previous support.

Perot’s no-nonsense economic message appeared to be striking a chord with Orange County Republicans even more than Democrats. The independent candidate was winning the support of one in four Republican voters compared to just 16% of the Democrats.

The survey also found that more respondents had a favorable opinion of Perot than they did of either Clinton or Bush. And among Republicans, two in three voters said they had a favorable opinion of Perot, compared to just half of the Democrats.

“Everybody seems to be in agreement that it’s time to do something different,” said Brian Fischer, a 35-year-old Republican truck driver from La Habra who voted for Bush in 1988. “I just believe that the man can make some changes that will benefit people in my category--the working guys.”

On the issues, Perot’s focus on the economy and the deficit struck a chord with business-minded Orange County voters.

On the question of which candidate would do a better job promoting economic prosperity, Perot outpolled Bush among Republicans (44% to 37%) but lost to Clinton among Democrats (32% to 53%). Two out of three Republicans also said Perot would do a better job reducing the deficit, compared to 24% who liked Bush’s handling of the issue.

Clinton was also finding support among traditionally Republican demographic categories. He was leading Bush in Orange County among older and more affluent voters.

Respondents over age 55 supported Clinton by 41% to Bush’s 34%. And those making more than $50,000 per year backed the Democrat with 36% support to 32% for Bush.

The reason seemed to be the economy, which was cited as the top issue by 52% of the respondents. The second-highest rated issue was the deficit (11%) and all other issues scored in single digits.

Voters rated George Bush as the best candidate to handle foreign policy, but only 1% of the respondents said that was an important issue in their decision. Likewise, the President received the highest marks as the best candidate to hold down taxes. But only 9% cited taxes as a crucial issue.

Clinton was given the nod by voters as the best candidate on education and the environment even though those issues were also secondary to most voters.

The survey indicated that Clinton’s emphasis on the economy and Perot’s attention to the gridlock in government are better issues to woo voters than Bush’s focus on Clinton’s character.

More than half of the county’s voters--including nearly one in three Republicans--agreed with Clinton’s claim that the economic policies of Bush and former President Ronald Reagan have benefited only the wealthy while the middle class and poor have suffered.

At the same time, nearly two-thirds of the electorate--including about half of the Republicans--disagreed with Bush’s charge that Clinton’s college-age involvement in anti-war protests raises questions about his character or judgment.

In the Senate races, Herschensohn’s lead over Boxer narrowed slightly among those voters who said they were most likely to vote. But he was still leading 51% to 42%. Herschensohn’s lead spanned all age and income groups in Orange County.

In the other Senate race, Seymour was winning among voters aged 18 to 54, while Feinstein was ahead--53% to 40%--among those 55 and older. In addition, the Republican is running well with voters earning less than $50,000 per year and Feinstein has stronger support among those making $50,000 or more.

In both races, the candidates have seen their unfavorable ratings soar as the campaign has progressed, probably driven up by the negative television campaign ads the camps have blanketed the airwaves with lately.

Boxer is viewed unfavorably by about half of the electorate, compared to just 30% who had a bad opinion of the congresswoman in an August poll. Herschensohn’s unfavorable rating, meanwhile, jumped from 31% in August to 46% today. Only 19% of the Republicans had a favorable opinion of Boxer, while Herschensohn scored better among Democrats with 27%.

Feinstein and Seymour scored even worse, with both rated unfavorably by 52%. Those poor marks bode particularly poorly for the incumbent senator, who in an August poll had garnered a 49% favorable rating with only 25% unfavorable. Feinstein was rated unfavorably by 46% in August.

Too Close to Call

The Orange County vote remains a tossup between President Bush and Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton. The U.S. Senate race between Republican John Seymour and Democrat Dianne Feinstein is a virtual tie, and Republican Bruce Herschensohn has widened his lead over Democrat Barbara Boxer.

Presidential Race

If the presidential election were held today, would you vote for. . . Gov. Bill Clinton: 35% President Bush: 34% Ross Perot: 24% Other, don’t know: 7% Senate Races

If the election for U.S. senator for the full term of six years/short term of two years were held today, would you vote for . . . ? Full term Rep. Barbara Boxer: 39% Bruce Herschensohn: 50% Short Term Dianne Feinstein: 45% Sen. John Seymour: 44% NOTE: Other, don’t know: 11% Party Preference

How the presidential candidates fared by party:

Other, Clinton Bush Perot don’t know Democrats 67% 13% 16% 4% Republicans 14% 54% 26% 6%

Source: Times Orange County Poll

It Adds Up to Economics

In Orange County, where Republicans outnumber Democrats by a wide margin, Clinton is tied with Bush. In the state and the nation, Clinton has a solid lead.

Will Vote For:

Orange County California U.S. (10/23-25) (10/20-23) (10/20-22) Clinton 35% 47% 44% Bush 34% 28% 34% Perot 24% 20% 19% Other, don’t know 7% 5% 3%

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Key Issues

The economy and jobs are the leading issues in the presidential race. Half of all voters, and two thirds of Clinton supporters, say this is the most important issue in determining their votes.

In deciding whom to vote for in this election, which of the following is the most important issue to you? Jobs/economy: 52% Federal deficit: 11% Holding down taxes: 9% Education: 8% Family values: 5% Abortion: 5% Other issues, don’t know: 10% *

Will vote for:

Clinton Bush Perot Jobs/economy 66% 40% 54% Federal deficit 6% 10% 23% Holding down taxes 3% 19% 8% Education 10% 6% 6% Family values * 10% 3% Abortion 6% 5% * Other issues, don’t know 9% 10% 6%

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Optimistic, Pessimistic Views

Clinton leads his opponents among voters who think the next year will bring bad times, who see themselves as worse off than a year ago and who view the United States as heading in the wrong direction.

Other, Clinton Bush Perot don’t know Good times next year 29% 51% 17% 3% Bad times next year 39% 26% 28% 7% Better off than year ago 23% 53% 19% 5% Worse off than year ago 46% 21% 28% 5% U.S. headed in right direction 16% 72% 11% 1% U.S. headed in wrong direction 43% 20% 30% 7%

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Who’s Benefiting, Who’s Suffering

A slim majority of county voters agree with Clinton’s charge that the economic policies of the Bush and Reagan administrations have hurt the poor and middle class. Eight in 10 Democrats and nearly a third of Republicans agree.

Bill Clinton has said that the Bush and Reagan economic policies of the past 12 years have benefited only the wealthy, while the middle class and poor have suffered. Do you agree or disagree?

All voters Democrats Republicans Agree 52% 83% 30% Disagree 45% 16% 67% Don’t know 3% 1% 3%

Sources: Times Orange County Poll; Los Angeles Times Poll; Times Mirror Poll

HOW THIS POLL WAS CONDUCTED

The Times Orange County Poll was conducted by Mark Baldassare & Associates. The telephone survey of 600 Orange County registered voters was conducted Oct. 23-25 on a weekday night and weekend days using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers. The margin of error for the total sample is plus or minus 4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. That means it is 95% certain that the results are within 4% of what they would be if every adult registered voter was interviewed. For the subgroup of most likely voters, the margin of error is 5%.