Democrats Gain the Advantage in Several GOP Strongholds

A surge in Democratic registration in the San Gabriel Valley is boosting the hopes of Democrats and worrying Republicans in the final week of campaigning for the Nov. 3 election.

Since the beginning of the year, Democrats have overtaken Republicans in a state Senate district that includes Pasadena, an Assembly district centered in Pasadena and an Assembly district in Pomona. Democrats have also nearly pulled even in the traditionally Republican 27th Congressional District, where Rep. Carlos J. Moorhead (R-Glendale) has been in office for 20 years.

As of the Oct. 5 deadline for registering to vote in November, all of the districts reported large increases in total registration, according to figures released last week. Although the number of Republicans also increased, many more people have registered as Democrats, as members of minor parties or as independents. The San Gabriel Valley figures are in line with statewide statistics that show California Democrats out-registering Republicans 2 to 1 and increasing the party’s statewide advantage.

“The surge of Democratic registration is a warning signal to Republicans,” said Alan Heslop, an expert on political demographics at the Rose Institute of State and Local Government at Claremont McKenna College.

Traditionally, Republicans are more loyal voters than Democrats, and any district with a Republican registration of at least 43% of the total is considered safe for the GOP. But, Heslop said, any Republican in a district where the percentage of GOP registration has slipped below the high 40s should be campaigning hard this year.

State Sen. Newton R. Russell (R-Glendale), who has served in that chamber for 18 years, agrees. “This is not the year to sit on one’s laurels,” he said. Russell said he is accustomed to running with a strong GOP majority, but because of reapportionment and voter shifts, he is seeking reelection in a district where Democrats hold a slight edge.

Usually, Russell wins reelection with minimal effort. This year, he said, he is speaking wherever “two or three people gather” and will send out several mailers. “We’ve got a full-blown campaign,” he said.

Russell is working hard, even though his Democratic opponent, Rachel J. Dewey, a rocket scientist at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, has raised little money for her campaign. The latest campaign report filings show Russell with $195,164 in cash and Dewey with $3,635.

While Republicans are worried, Democratic candidates are cheered by the registration numbers.

“It’s been a big boost in our morale,” said Democratic Assembly candidate Jonathan Fuhrman of Pasadena, who started his campaign in the 44th Assembly District with his party trailing the Republicans by more than 4,300 registered voters and is ending it nearly 2,400 voters ahead.

Whether the registration gains will translate into votes on election day is uncertain, as even Fuhrman acknowledges.

It’s one thing to register voters and another to get them to the polls, he said. Traditionally, the turnout of newly registered voters is “pretty anemic,” he said.

But what makes him think this election might be different is the enthusiasm that new voters are showing. His campaign is telephoning every newly registered Democrat and independent in the district, he said, and not only are they promising to vote, many are also volunteering as campaign workers.

Many of the new registrants are people in their 30s and 40s who have been drawn into politics this year by their desire for drastic change, he said.

Fuhrman’s Republican opponent, Bill Hoge, agrees at least on that point. Although Democrats have gained some, he said, independent and minor party registrations have risen even more, reflecting discontent with traditional politics.

“It’s an indication that people are dissatisfied with what’s going on,” he said. And Hoge said he is trying to persuade voters that he, too, is dissatisfied and will work for change.

In the 44th Assembly District, which includes Pasadena, San Marino, Altadena and South Pasadena, about 25,000 people registered to vote between February and the October deadline, raising the total to 206,757. The voter breakdown is now 44.2% Democratic and 43.1% Republican, with the remaining 12.7% divided among minor parties and independents.

Like the 44th, the 61st Assembly District, which starts in Pomona at the eastern edge of the San Gabriel Valley and extends into Chino and Ontario, has shifted to a Democratic majority in recent months. The change has helped Democrat Larry Simcoe, a Los Angeles County firefighter, who is running hard against Chino Mayor Fred Aguiar, the Republican nominee.

Voter Registration

Registration figures for San Gabriel Valley congressional and legislative districts show big Democratic gains from February to October. Democrats passed Republicans in the 21st State Senate and 44th and 61st Assembly districts.

CONGRESS

DISTRICT FEBRUARY OCTOBER 27th (Pasadena, Glendale, Burbank) Democrat 103,764 (41.7%) 122,919 (42.9%) Republican 117,645 (47.3%) 125,854 (43.9%) 28th (Arcadia, Glendora, West Covina) Democrat 101,525 (40.7%) 117,348 (41.4%) Republican 122,374 (49.1%) 131,753 (46.4%) 31st (Monterey Park, El Monte, Azusa) Democrat 85,134 (58.1%) 99,491 (58.6%) Republican 44,083 (30.1%) 47,658 (28.1%) 34th (Santa Fe Springs, Hacienda Heights, La Puente) Democrat 119,450 (61.2%) 136,531 (61.6%) Republican 58,370 (29.9%) 62,463 (28.2%) 41st (Rowland Heights, Pomona, Diamond Bar) Democrat 87,132 (39.1%) 99,167 (39.6%) Republican 112,163 (50.3%) 121,825 (48.7%)

* STATE SENATE

DISTRICT FEBRUARY OCTOBER 21st (Pasadena, Glendale, Burbank) Democrat 134,757 (42.5%) 159,958 (43.8%) Republican 146,260 (46.1%) 156,021 (42.7%) 29th (Monrovia, Glendora, West Covina) Democrat 131,547 (41.1%) 151,568 (41.5%) Republican 155,717 (48.6%) 168,977 (46.3%)

* ASSEMBLY

DISTRICT FEBRUARY OCTOBER 44th (Pasadena, Altadena, San Marino) Democrat 78,879 (43.4%) 91,421 (44.2%) Republican 83,241 (45.8%) 89,027 (43.1%) 49th (Alhambra, Rosemead, Monterey Park) Democrat 62,733 (59.8%) 72,011 (60.2%) Republican 29,410 (28.0%) 31,558 (26.4%) 57th (El Monte, Azusa, Hacienda Heights) Democrat 54,717 (55.9%) 64,071 (56.7%) Republican 32,702 (33.4%) 35,035 (31.0%) 59th (Monrovia, Claremont, Covina) Democrat 66,501 (39.0%) 77,076 (39.7%) Republican 87,009 (51.0%) 93,728 (48.3%) 60th (Diamond Bar, Walnut, West Covina) Democrat 65,046 (43.5%) 74,492 (43.6%) Republican 68,708 (45.9%) 75,249 (44.0%) 61st (Pomona) Democrat 54,311 (45.2%) 63,828 (45.5%) Republican 54,692 (45.5%) 61,616 (43.9%)

Source: voter registration offices in Los Angeles, San Bernardino and Orange counties.