America From Abroad : Dear Mr. President

Foreign policy may have played second fiddle--or second saxophone--to domestic problems in the U.S. presidential campaign that culminates today. But in fact, whether it turns out to be President Bush, President Clinton or President Perot, the man who occupies the White House for the next four years will spend a lot of that time coping with global issues.

What kind of advice is the winner likely to hear from the men and women who are paid to be America’s eyes and ears in foreign capitals?

World Report asked Times correspondents in Berlin, Brussels, Jerusalem, Johannesburg, London, Mexico City, Moscow, Toronto and Tokyo to step into the shoes of the political secretaries of the American embassies in those cities and offer some tips in a memo to the new President . . .

MOSCOW

‘Make it clear that it’s business as usual . . . ‘

Just had a long chat about the U.S. election with some of President Boris N. Yeltsin’s top advisers on America. Boris and his people have the same wish list, more or less, regardless of who grabs the brass ring today. The top items:

* Right away you should reaffirm the “framework agreement” for historic strategic arms reductions that was signed in Washington last June. The Russians worry that the accord, which we are already haggling over, will be stalled for months while you try to revive the U.S. economy or thrash out your policy toward Russia. (Gov. Clinton, the preceding goes double for you, since the Russians have never faced you across a negotiating table and they have unpleasant memories of the last time a smiling Southern governor made it to the White House. If you’re the man, you need to make clear as soon as possible that it will be “business as usual” in U.S.-Russian relations and dispatch a personal envoy--your choice for secretary of state, for instance--to meet Yeltsin and his crew.)

* Don’t push for a summit anytime soon--the Russians do not want one. Yeltsin is under increasingly fierce fire from former Communists and other angry opponents as a supposed Western stooge. Domestically, the fallout from getting too chummy with George/Bill/Ross too soon would be counterproductive and would raise hopes for new U.S. aid that can’t be met. Wait, at the very least, until the snow melts and Russians’ bellies are filled with spring vegetables.

* Stifle the “we won the Cold War” stuff--particularly you, President Bush, if you get reelected. A lot of Russians think the United States has been lavish with words, but niggardly in deeds, in helping transform their country, and a palpable anti-American grudge has resulted among many movers and shakers. It would be a neat bit of public relations if, on Inauguration Day, you made some kind of noble gesture--like offering more American know-how (and more dollars) to get rid of Soviet-built ICBM warheads and chemical weapons. Or how about another mercy airlift of food and pharmaceuticals?

* Let it be known that you will stand up for the human rights of Russians who are becoming second-class citizens in the Baltics and other former Soviet republics outside Russia as much as we have for Jewish refuseniks or political dissidents. Also, it would please Moscow mightily were we to pressure Ukraine to stop its shilly-shallying about nuclear disarmament. (Admittedly, getting involved in relations between Russia and the newly independent republics is ticklish business politically--you could alienate Baltic-Americans, Ukrainian-Americans, etc. But handled deftly . . .)

* Now the bad part: The signs are multiplying that there is going to be a veering to the right, maybe a new authoritarianism, in Russian policy soon, since people are fed up with crime, black marketeering, disorder, high prices etc. Yeltsin is going to look less like such a cuddly teddy bear and more like a real Russian bear. One question you’ll have to answer is: How far is the United States willing to tolerate tough words and deeds by Yeltsin if the goal still appears to be building a free and prosperous society? Moreover, start expecting problems with the Kremlin over foreign policy and security issues--Yeltsin has ordered his diplomats to start vigorously asserting Russia’s interests and to stop being the yes men of the West.

* Oh, yeah. Forget Mikhail S. Gorbachev. (That private White House dinner for him earlier this year really ticked off Yeltsin.) On the other hand, Yeltsin himself is now in the midst of political heavy weather that could have a thousand possible outcomes, so whoever is going to replace Robert S. Strauss as U.S. ambassador to Moscow should quickly lay down lines of communication to Vice President Alexander V. Rutskoi , Arkady I. Volsky and other top politicos.

P.S. FYI, a Moscow institute recently found that 44% of Muscovites would vote for President Bush, 13% for Gov. Clinton and only 1% for Ross Perot. The others had no reply. Too bad we can’t hand Arkansas over to the Russians and get Moscow in return--right, Mr. Bush? (Just a little humor, there. . . .)