With the Race Over, Let the Governing Begin

Bill Clinton was the best presidential candidate I’ve ever seen: better in many ways than the great candidate himself, Ronald Reagan. His natural political instincts, his grasp of the American electorate, his discipline of message and, most awesome of all, his inner strength to overcome adversity and keep going are unparalleled in presidential politics. Add to this the best team of political professionals ever put under one roof, and yes, some luck and help from “the economy, stupid,” and you have a winner. But now he must govern.

Clinton will need all these assets and more. The transition from campaign to the presidency is difficult. So what’s a fellow to do? For starters, get the best people possible to help govern.

I believe Clinton will move quickly to identify some key players in his Administration, specifically State and Defense, to calm down world leaders leery of the new kid on the block. Most important, he will set on a Treasury secretary and an economic team to calm the marketplace. So what kind of people will he choose? Note the message is “calm”--read, these will be conservative choices.

The newspapers are filled with names of potential candidates. Most names appear because people are promoting themselves or their agents are doing this for them. My guess is Clinton has given some thought to specific names but has given much more thought to the message that the choice will send. With this in mind, look for State and Defense to be people of standing, not unknowns. Widely mentioned as secretary of state is Warren Christopher, former deputy secretary of state under President Jimmy Carter. This would be the right kind of choice. So would Speaker of the House Thomas S. Foley of Washington state. Both men are known and trusted by world leaders.

At Defense, a surprise may be in store. Some Clinton advisers urge that he ask Gen. Colin L. Powell to give up his commission and take over as secretary of Defense. Not only a solid choice but a message of continuity to the world.

After these, the most important choices are in the economic arena, Treasury, Office of Management and Budget, and the Council of Economic Advisers. Here the battle for Clinton’s heart and mind is being waged at a feverish level--between more moderate-conservative Democratic economic theorists and the traditional pump-priming Keynesian crowd on the left. Clinton’s choices here will tell you if he is a new breed of moderate Democrat or a liberal spouting a moderate message, as Republicans have suggested. My bet is that a moderate Clinton will emerge.

Look to him to go to someone like Sen. Lloyd Bentsen of Texas as secretary of the Treasury or some like-minded moderate-conservative. Many have suggested Clinton will go to Wall Street for his Treasury secretary. Maybe, but if he does, don’t expect to see any Keynesians.

At the all-important Office of Management and Budget, I expect Clinton will turn to the network of the moderate Democratic Leadership Council to fill key roles. Watch for the likes of DLC Director Al From or the Progressive Policy Institute’s Will Marshall to play key roles. It was the DLC, after all, that produced much of the research and issue development that went into Clinton’s three New Covenant speeches delivered to much acclaim in 1991. If you don’t see DLC policy-makers being brought into government, then Clinton will have been bushwhacked by the left and committed to the Dukakis-Harvard brand of economic stimulus by government. I’ll put my bets with the DLC network.

At the White House itself, two jobs will be of utmost importance--chief of staff and the often-overlooked assistant to the President for congressional relations. I believe Clinton will opt for White House control of government rather than Cabinet government. It brings more discipline to the Administration. It also brings an enormous amount of work. That calls for a chief of staff gifted with management abilities and possessed of enormous standing with the President, a la James A. Baker III. So my bet here is, contrary to conventional wisdom that a political chief of staff will emerge out of his campaign network, Clinton will go for management and stature. The ideal person for this would be Christopher. State for Christopher or chief of staff? A tough choice.

As for congressional relations, a strong, person is essential. All this talk about the end of gridlock brings much potential for Clinton and a great deal of danger. The potential is obvious. It will make it far easier for him to get his own programs through a friendly Congress. The danger is that, after 12 years of government by veto, pet programs formulated in Congress are just waiting to be revived.

My greatest fear is Congress will begin sending Clinton lots of bills, particularly spending bills, he will not want and cannot afford. To avoid this, Clinton must warn Congress that we have the will but not the wallet. This is a daunting task. The barons on Capitol Hill are not used to being told what to do. In the past they have run roughshod over White House congressional-relations departments.

So the need for a strong congressional-relations assistant is paramount. If one is not selected, Clinton will end up doing it himself, which would be disastrous. I know Clinton likes to schmooze with legislators, but too much schmoozing leads to too many expectations. I would not be surprised if, before the first year of office is over, Clinton vetoes some bills generated by his own party.

As we Democrats revel in our victory and the now toothless conservative cadre packs its bags, we must remember that we now must govern. The people opted for a one-party government to end gridlock and get the country moving again. We will have a four-year shot at it and, if we succeed, Democrats could be in the White House for several terms. If we don’t--well, you know the answer.