Old Age Means New Problems, Report Warns : Census Bureau says a great-grandparent boom will be characterized by health, economic woes for the elderly, their children and the nation.

Millions of baby boomers, who wistfully think of themselves as ever-youthful rock ‘n’ rollers, will live long enough to become part of something this country has never seen before--a great-grandparent boom, an unprecedented number of 85-year-olds.

A new Census Bureau report predicts that the “oldest old,” or those 85 and older, will be a dramatically expanding segment of the population, with numbers soaring from 3 million in 1990 to 8 million in 2030 and finally to 15 million in the year 2050. Their longevity will raise profound questions concerning health and economics, as the “young old,” or those approximately age 65, worry about their own health and security as they struggle to care for their aged parents.

“Longer life expectancy has not necessarily translated into better health for the oldest old,” according to the report, “Sixty-Five Plus in America” by Cynthia M. Taeuber of the Census Bureau.

“The oldest old often have severe chronic health problems,” according to the report. “This demands special attention because the nature and duration of their illnesses are likely to produce a need for prolonged care for many people.”

Today, just one out of 100 Americans is 85 or older. In 2050, when the youngest baby boomers are great-grandparents, 5% of the population will be 85 or older.

“We can expect to see more long-term chronic illness, disability and dependency,” according to the Census Bureau study. “More people may live long enough to suffer from the cognitive diseases of senile dementia and Alzheimer’s. More young old will have multiple oldest old family members who need care and attention.”

The baby boomers, the generation born between 1946 and 1965, are generally healthier than prior generations, with more of them exercising and maintaining healthy diets, and fewer of them smoking. This will help reduce the occurrence of heart disease, cancer, hip fractures and high blood pressure, according to Dr. Edward Schneider, dean of the Andrus Gerontology Center at USC.

But there is “no evidence” that diet and exercise can ameliorate the ravages caused by Alzheimer’s disease, Parkinson’s disease and other maladies that can strike the elderly, he said.

Without cures for the debilitating diseases, the United States “and other countries face enormous investments and payments to maintain current levels of services for the oldest old,” according to the Census Bureau report.

The generation of very old baby boom survivors will be primarily women. “Elderly women are likely to have long-term, chronic disabling diseases while men tend to develop relatively short-term fatal diseases,” the report noted.

“The death of a husband often marks the point of economic reversals for the surviving wife,” it added.

Although more women will have their own pensions in the next century because they have moved into the work force in larger and larger numbers, they are still more likely to fall into poverty when they reach advanced ages because inflation erodes the value of savings and pensions for the very old.

The “health, social and economic problems of the oldest old are primarily the problems of women,” the report said.

America Grows Gray-Haired

Population 65 and over

Millions of people Percentage of U.S. Population 1980 25.6 11.3 1990 31.1 12.5 2000 34.9 13.0 2010 39.4 13.9 2020 52.1 17.7 2030 65.6 21.8 2040 68.1 22.6 2050 68.5 22.9

The Sexes in the Senior Years 1990 65 and over Women: 18.6 million Men: 12.5 million 75 and over Women: 8.4 million Men: 4.6 million 85 and over Women: 2.2 million Men: 841,000 Source: Sixty-Five Plus in America, Cynthia M. Taeuber, Census Bureau