A new 2023 National Population Projections by the U.S. Census Bureau reveals that over 1 in 4 Americans are likely to be Latino by 2060.
Overall population numbers are predicted to rise from 333 million people to nearly 370 million by the year 2080, with immigration as the largest contributor, while mortality rates increase and decline in fertility persists as it has for decades.
“In an ever-changing world, understanding population dynamics is crucial for shaping policies and planning resources,” said Sandra Johnson, a demographer at the Census Bureau.
The Census Bureau calculates that Latinos who currently make up 19.1% of the total U.S. population are expected to rise to 26.9% in population size.
At the same time, the projections predict that the non-Hispanic white population will decline from 58.9% to 44.9% by 2060.
The 2023 projections offer four scenarios, including the main series (the most likely outcome) and three alternative immigration scenarios that show how the population might change under high, low, or zero immigration numbers.
The projections reveal, for example, if there is zero-immigration in the next decades, the Latino population is still expected to increase to 24.6%. If there is low-immigration, it will increase to 26.2% and 27.8% in a high-immigration scenario.
The 2023 National Population Projections is an update to the last series of projections published in 2017. The new estimates account for the impact of COVID-19 and the outcomes of the 2020 census and its inclusion of the Vintage 2022 National Population Estimates as a base.
“Incorporating additional years of data on births, deaths and international migration into our projections process resulted in a slower pace of population growth through 2060 than was previously projected,” Johnson said.
Although the U.S. population is projected to reach almost 370 million by 2080, the population is predicted to decline to 366 million by 2100.