Next Step : Irish Voters Gird for Pivotal Election : Wednesday’s balloting will decide who governs the republic--and whether anti-abortion laws should be eased.

Ireland will vote Wednesday in a national election that nobody wanted--and which is expected to provide only inconclusive results.

None of the Irish political parties is expected to garner a clear majority in the 166-seat Dail, or Parliament, so that a round of political horse-trading will be necessary for one of the two major parties to form a coalition government.

And the process has been complicated by the decision to hold a simultaneous national referendum on liberalizing Ireland’s tough anti-abortion constitutional provisions--an issue that seems to have stirred up at least as much interest as the election.

The political crisis began three weeks ago when Prime Minister Albert Reynolds, head of the largest party, Fianna Fail, indulged in a personal attack on the leader of his coalition partner, Desmond O’Malley, of the Progressive Democrats.

Reynolds charged that O’Malley had given “dishonest” testimony before an official inquiry investigating Ireland’s beef-processing industry.

Not surprisingly, when he did not receive an appropriate apology, O’Malley’s party pulled out of the governing coalition and Reynolds lost a vote of confidence in Parliament--resulting in a snap election months before it would normally have been due.

By forcing the unwelcome election, Reynolds--who had taken over the leadership last February after a bruising fight with political patriarch Charles Haughey--has seen his personal popularity plummet to a favorable rating of only 24%, according to one leading opinion sampling.

In the last Parliament, Fianna Fail had 77 seats, lacking an absolute majority by six votes, and it is expected to lose additional seats in Wednesday’s vote, which would mean a new coalition if it seeks to govern.

Fianna Fail’s losses are expected to strengthen the position of the second-largest party, Fine Gael, which might also be able to form a new coalition under the leadership of party chief John Bruton.

This presumably would be in conjunction with the Labor Party, which has been strongly led by Dick Spring, whose personal popularity is higher than any other party leader. Though always a small minority party, Labor achieved a breakthrough with the 1990 election of Mary Robinson, who garnered 53% of the vote to become Ireland’s first woman president.

The latest polls show Labor running at about 20%, or five points behind Fine Gael. In terms of seats, political insiders predict that Fianna Fail will get 70 to 75; Fine Gael about 50 to 55; and Labor 20 to 25. Smaller parties tend to pick up scattered seats.

It is not clear how the national election will be effected by the simultaneous voting on three abortion questions.

These call for slightly liberalizing Ireland’s constitution to permit abortion when the mother’s life is threatened, to allow abortion information to be disseminated, and to legalize travel to another country for the purpose of getting an abortion.

The latter provision was added after a 14-year-old Irish schoolgirl, pregnant after being raped, was at first refused government permission to go to England for an abortion. After a national furor, the ruling was voided by the Supreme Court.

Opinion polls indicate that the Irish public is slightly in favor of liberalizing the no-abortion rule. At first, it seemed that the Roman Catholic Church hierarchy would not comment nationally on the abortion referendums--and a recent meeting of the Catholic Bishops Conference advised Catholics that they could vote “yes” or “no” in good conscience.

However, Archbishop Desmond Connel of Dublin, Bishop Dominic Conway of Elphin, and Bishop Seamus Hegarty of Raphoe, in an apparent breach of the conference decisions, have recently advocated a “no” vote.

And in a surprise move, Fine Gael leader Bruton abandoned his neutral stance and advised the electorate to vote “no” on all three abortion questions--increasing the possibility that they may be defeated.

Bruton’s action could strengthen the two completely different groups campaigning against the amendment: the anti-abortion groups who want no change in the constitution; and pro-choice activists who believe the measures are not strong enough in permitting operations to protect the health of the mother.

“If the referendums are defeated,” commented one Dublin official, “that means the next government will be faced with trying to develop legislation to obtain the same ends. And that will be some fight.”

Limits of the Law

On Wednesday, Irish voters will be choosing a national government. However, they also will be casting their ballots in a national referendum on three constitutional amendments concerning the republic’s stringent anti-abortion laws. Currently, abortion is not allowed in Ireland. The latest public opinion polls suggest that each of the three amendments will pass, but only by fairly narrow margins.

The amendments would permit: * Abortions when necessary to save the life--”as distinct from the health”--of the mother in Ireland. * Travel to other states for whatever purpose, including abortion, without fear of legal prosecution. * Information about abortion in other countries to be made available in Ireland.