Merry End to Flat Year? : Record Retailers Predict a Strong Finish for 1992
Despite surprising sales dives by the new Prince and Madonna albums, record retailers across the nation voiced optimism Wednesday that the holiday sales season may help salvage what has been a flat year in pop.
The reason for the rosy outlook: a feeling among retailers that there is a renewed sense of consumer confidence after the presidential election.
“People seem to be in a more upbeat mood about the economy than they were before Nov. 3,” said Bob Delanoy, vice president of retail operations for the 76-store Sacramento-based Tower Records chain.
“We’re excited about the prospects for the upcoming holiday season. We’re expecting customers to turn out in droves.”
Jeffrey A. Jones, senior vice president and chief financial officer of the 575-store TransWorld Music Corp., based in Albany, N.Y., echoed Delanoy’s feelings.
“We were quite disappointed when unit sales for Madonna and Prince dropped off so quickly,” said Jones, whose chain’s revenue through the election was down as much as 6%. “We certainly had expected those two albums to lead the charge throughout Christmas, but it looks like we may have some other strong contenders to pick up the slack.”
Adds Camelot’s Lew Garrett, vice president of purchasing at the 330-outlet North Canton, Ohio-based Camelot Enterprises:
“I don’t hear a lot of naysayers preaching doom and gloom the way they were last year. It looks like Whitney Houston, Michael Bolton and Garth Brooks are already kicking the new season off in a big way. Many of us believe we are looking at a very strong six weeks ahead.”
Record industry retailers--who have sold an estimated $5.4-billion worth of albums since January--said Wednesday that they expect holiday shoppers to buy an additional $1.3-billion worth of albums before New Year’s Day.
As a result, industry analysts predict that 1992’s music sales will eclipse last year’s figures by at least 3%--for a total of about $6.7 billion. The remainder of the industry’s anticipated $8-billion-plus total will be generated by the sale of singles, music videos and auxiliary products.
Here are the albums retailers are counting on most this season:
* Whitney Houston’s “Bodyguard”: Not only did this Arista soundtrack sell 145,000 copies last week to capture the No. 2 spot on the pop chart, but the first single--Houston’s version of Dolly Parton’s “I Will Always Love You”--is also red-hot, selling a phenomenal 212,000 units last week.
* Michael Bolton’s “Timeless (The Classics)”: Bolton already had a huge following, but his recent network television special seems to have given him even greater sales punch. This Columbia collection of pop-soul standards has already sold about 900,000 units since its Sept. 29 release.
* Garth Brooks’ “The Chase”: This 10-song package by Nashville’s biggest crossover act has dominated the pop chart since its Sept. 22 release, chalking up more than 2 million units in sales so far. Combined sales since 1990 for the Liberty recording artist’s last five albums exceed 20 million copies.
* Ice Cube’s “The Predator”: This funky, hard-edged Priority rap collection sold a whopping 193,000 copies last week to take the top spot on Billboard magazine’s pop chart away from Brooks. Don’t expect him to hold the lead for long, but this no-holds-barred look at race relations in post-riot Los Angeles should continue to sell strongly to young fans at least through the holidays.
* Nirvana’s “Incesticide”: This upstart hard-rock trio from Seattle stunned the record industry last year at this time when sales for its “Nevermind” album rivaled Michael Jackson’s much-ballyhooed “Dangerous.” The new album--due Dec. 15 on DGC Records--is a collection of unreleased older tracks.
“Business has already picked up noticeably since the day after the election,” said Lenny Beer, editor of Hits Magazine, an industry trade publication. “I’m not saying that what retailers are experiencing is a tidal wave or anything like that. But from the looks of things, this is going to be a very strong holiday season.”
On the downside, the season’s biggest turkeys so far, retailers agreed, are from Madonna, Prince and rock group Bon Jovi.
Whereas Madonna’s controversial book, “Sex,” sold an estimated 500,000 copies last month in its first week in the stores, her “Erotica” album has sold only about 450,000 units since being released five weeks ago. Having sold about 53,000 last week, it is now out of the national Top 10.
Prince’s new album is doing even worse, having sold only 326,000 copies in six weeks and plunging to No. 38 on the new pop charts, having sold just 28,000 units last week. Bon Jovi’s “Keep the Faith,” which has sold 230,000 copies in three weeks, falls to No. 13 this week after selling just 56,000 last week.
For all the emphasis on superstar releases, industry analysts report that the rise and fall of so-called blockbuster collections do not have a dramatic impact on overall sales figures. In 1992, these have regularly registered about 9 million units per week.
Last week’s 10 best-selling albums, for instance, accounted for less than 10% of the total 10.5 million albums sold nationwide. The overwhelming majority of albums sold are old catalogue product--such as the Beatles and the Doors--plus samplings of the hundreds of other new albums in the stores.
Angie Diehl Jacobs, head of marketing for the 91-store Los Angeles-based Music Plus chain, said her company expects such varied works as Mary J. Blige’s “What’s the 411?,” Sade’s “Love Deluxe,” Pearl Jam’s still-hot “Ten” and Arrested Development’s “3 Years 5 Months and 2 Days in the Life of . . . “ to contribute heavily to a year-end sales spurt.
Other albums retailers singled out as potential contenders: Eric Clapton’s “Unplugged,” Kenny G’s “Breathless,” Wreckx-N-Effect’s “Hard or Smooth” and CD box sets by Bob Marley and Fleetwood Mac. One potential blockbuster, Bell Biv DeVoe’s “Hootie Mack,” was supposed to be out next week, but its release has been delayed until mid-Feburary.
“There may not be three heavyweights out there blasting home runs this season, but we do have a lot of artists hitting doubles and triples--enough so that in the end I believe this season will stack up to be a real winner,” Diehl Jacobs said. “With such an eclectic plethora of strong product on the market, we are confident that sales will be much better this season than last year.”
