Latinos Make Waves in the Electoral Mainstream : Voting: A 14% jump over the 1988 turnout made a big difference for Clinton.

Even though Bill Clinton won a clear victory, his disdain for minority issues caused a downturn in voting among Latinos and African-Americans nationally and in California. Right? Wrong! While the African-American turnout declined by more than 1 million votes, Latino turnout increased dramatically over 1988. Why? Like the rest of the country, Latinos felt that America was on the wrong path. This election saw “Latino” issues dissolve into the larger national dread over the economy. Translation: Latinos suffer high unemployment and underemployment and are worried about their families’ future. According to polls by Southwest Voter Research Institute in California and Texas, Latinos cited jobs and the economy as by far the most important issue; education and crime/drugs ranked second and third. “Latino” issues like bilingual education were simply not a major factor in how Latinos voted.

Nearly 3 1/2 million Latinos turned out. That’s 500,000, or 14%, more Latino votes than in the 1988 presidential election.

How did Latinos vote? Squarely with the mainstream (or perhaps the mainstream voted with Latinos): for change, against George Bush. This new, and perhaps temporary, class-based (not ethnic-based) issue orientation compelled Latinos to vote for Clinton by more than 2 to 1, according to the New York Times (62% for Clinton, 25% for Bush and 14% for Ross Perot).

Clinton won six of the nine states where Latino voters are concentrated. Latino votes were Clinton’s margin of victory in New Mexico, Colorado and New Jersey. In California, New York and Illinois, big Latino turnouts joined the Clinton landslide. President Bush carried Arizona and Texas, even though Latinos voted in record numbers for Clinton. And Latinos--primarily Cuban Americans--gave Bush his margin of victory in Florida, supporting him by 3 to 1.

Latinos in California, primarily Mexican-Americans, voted overwhelmingly for Clinton. An exit poll of 988 Latino voters in 39 polling places, conducted by the Southwest Voter Research Institute, showed a more than 4 to 1 margin favoring Clinton (71%) over Bush (14%). Exit polls conducted in California by the New York Times and La Opinion/Univision showed similar results. Perot did poorly among Latinos in all three polls, taking 12% to 15%.

In the final analysis, there is ample reason for optimism regarding continued Latino participation. In California, nearly 900,000 of 1.55 million registered Latinos voted, continuing the steady pattern of increasing Latino participation that began in the 1980s. While Republicans may grumble that Latinos voted overwhelmingly for Democrats, previous elections (like the governor’s race in 1990) have demonstrated that Latinos can shift their votes to Republicans when they perceive that doing so better serves their interests.

But how Latinos vote is not the point for those who really care about California. The point is that in 1992, Latinos understood that their unique condition could best be addressed by blending their ethnic interests with larger class and national interests. In doing so, they increased their role in California’s political life by registering and voting in record numbers. That’s good news for all Americans.