New Home Sales Fall 10.3% in October, Report Shows : Housing: A separate study finds a third-quarter increase in the number of homeowners late in paying their mortgages.

Sales of new homes took their biggest dive in seven months in October, while more homeowners fell behind in paying their mortgages in the third quarter.

However, the Commerce Department’s estimate that home sales fell 10.3% is expected to be revised upward because the government’s figures are based on a questionable sampling of building permits nationwide. For this reason, analysts were not discouraged by the latest housing figures, which come against a backdrop of improved statistics in the housing market.

But more troubling to some analysts was the report from the Mortgage Bankers Assn. of America showing that the percentage of homeowners having difficulty paying their mortgages rose to 4.8% from July to September.

The rise in the delinquency rate--the percentage of homeowners 30 days or more late on their house payments--from 4.77% during the April to June quarter--was fueled by a large increase in California delinquencies.

California’s mortgage delinquencies registered the highest jump of any state, rising to 3.89% in October from 3.54% the previous month. Overall, the 4.8% home mortgage delinquency rate nationally in October was well below the 5.07% rate of a year ago.

“We are troubled with the Pacific states, because foreclosures might continue to increase there; but we are projecting a turnaround” for the nation overall in the next few months, said David Lereah, chief economist for Mortgage Bankers Assn.

With mortgage interest rates in September and October hovering at their lowest level in 20 years, many economists had expected mortgage delinquencies to level off as homeowners took advantage of opportunities to refinance at lower rates. They also expected the low interest rates to draw new buyers into the market.

The Commerce Department has said that revisions in its new home sales statistics occur because estimates are based on 60% of the data sought. The figures are updated as the remainder of the information becomes available.

Private economists also speculate that the credit crunch has forced builders to stop building speculative homes and, as a result, most building permits pulled today are for homes that have already been presold.

“Upward revisions in home sales have been a staple in the industry for a year because the government surveys are based on samples of building permits. . . . I think we’ll find out with these new figures that they, too, are a statistical fluke,” said Steve Dobi, a housing analyst for Smith Barney, Harris Upham & Co. in New York.

“I don’t attach a lot of significance to one month’s movement in numbers,” added Daryl Delano, an economist at Cahners Publishing, a Cambridge consulting firm. “I think we are going to see an increase across the board in housing sales in the coming months.”

The Department of Commerce said new home sales totaled a seasonally adjusted 600,000 in October, down from 669,000 a month earlier. The government initially reported September home sales had fallen 1%, but the revised figures show them up 7%.

Experts said the housing markets in Pacific states, and California in particular, continue to struggle, masking healthier markets in Colorado, Texas, the Midwest and the South.

“California continues to be a serious problem, and that’s bad news for overall housing market because it’s such a large chunk of the housing market,” Delano said. “California has just not been able to contribute to this economic recovery.”

James I. Sorensen, president of West Venture Development Corp., an Encino-based home builder, said autumn is “historically a slow time of year” for his firm, and that early September and October sales were particularly lackluster. But, he said, “the presidential election has (revived) some consumer confidence.”

October wasn’t a great month for Upland-based Lewis Homes either. But the company’s marketing director, Randall Lewis, agreed that the presidential election has helped remove some political uncertainty that has kept buyers on the sidelines.

“The last three weeks have been pretty good weeks for us,” he said.

New Home Sales Seasonally adjusted annual rate, thousands of units Oct., ‘92: 600 Sept., ‘92: 669 Oct., ‘91: 526 Source: Commerce Department.