New China Syndrome? : Beijing missile sale to Pakistan is extremely troubling

When Bill Clinton enters the Oval Office on the afternoon of Jan. 20 he will find awaiting him a long and still growing list of foreign policy challenges. High among them will be how to deal with an increasingly assertive China.

That question has just become thornier with the report that Beijing has delivered to Pakistan as many as several dozen mobile missiles, designated as M-11s, which are capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Pakistan, after decades of clandestine efforts to catch up to its great rival, India, is now believed capable of making nuclear weapons. China’s development and international marketing of the M-11 has been closely monitored by the United States, which sees the missile exports as fueling regional arms races.

When China last year sold Pakistan launchers for the M-11 the Bush Administration retaliated by suspending exports of American high-speed computers and satellite parts. When Beijing agreed to abide by the provisions of the Missile Technology Control Regime, an international accord that bans exports of missiles with a range of more than 190 miles and a payload or more than 1,100 pounds, the suspension was lifted.

Secretary of State James A. Baker III told Congress the sanctions would be restored if China went back on its word, something in any event required by law if the missile accord is found to have been violated. The Bush Administration, in its final weeks, must decide whether to act on that threat or leave the problem for the Clinton Administration to deal with.

Some U.S. officials are said to think China may have modified the M-11s it sent to Pakistan to reduce their range and payload, thus avoiding a violation of the missile accord. In that case, why wouldn’t Beijing have so notified Washington, if only to avoid having its credibility questioned? It seems more likely that China timed its missile shipments to try to take advantage of U.S. preoccupation with its coming change of leadership. China, then, would seem to have broken its word on the M-11 export issue. Whether this is a deliberate test of the incoming Clinton Administration’s resolve isn’t clear, but deliberate or not it is something that very plainly can’t be ignored.