Crack in the Ranks of GOP Signaled a Power Struggle : 1992 THE YEAR IN REVIEW. For Republicans and Democrats, It Was an Introspective Year

Even without most of their candidates on the ballot, 1993 promises to be an important year in Orange County politics as Democrats and Republicans begin a struggle for power that was triggered by last November’s election.

At stake is whether Orange County will continue to be the engine that drives California’s Republican candidates to victory, or whether it will become a competitive battleground where Democrats are more than symbolic place holders on the ballot.

“We’ve got lots of work to do in 1993,” said Buck Johns, a Newport Beach developer and a prominent Republican Party activist. “There was a singleness of purpose the Democrats had (in 1992), that was to get back in power. . . . We had some fractionalization in 1992, so now I think we’re going to see a much greater sense of purpose.”

Howard Adler, the county’s Democratic chairman, said that his party also has a lot of work to do. He predicted that Democrats will spend more money and conduct more campaign activities in 1993 than in any non-election season since he became a local activist more than 30 years ago.

“I think people really saw us build something in 1992,” Adler said, noting in particular the strong local election returns for President-elect Bill Clinton and Democratic U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein. “Democrats now believe they have a party.”

Republicans still enjoy a 20% edge over Democrats among registered voters in Orange County, the largest GOP margin in California. And Orange County’s Republican reputation that dates back for decades is not expected to change.

Instead, the measure of a power shift in Orange County will be determined by the ability of Democrats to represent a viable opposition as well as to win the seats where their voters constitute a majority.

Even that modest goal has appeared out of reach to Democrats since Ronald Reagan’s election as President in 1980. Republicans have held almost all of Orange County’s 17 legislative and congressional seats for much of the 12 years. And several statewide GOP candidates have carried Orange County by a margin of more than 2-to-1.

But some Democratic leaders in Orange County can remember when they used to cause a lot of problems for California’s Republican stronghold.

In 1978--for one brief election--Democratic registered voters in Orange County actually outnumbered Republicans. In 1976, Democrats held a majority of the county’s 13 legislative and congressional seats. And to everyone’s surprise, liberal Democrat Edmund G. (Jerry) Brown Jr. actually carried Orange County in the governor’s race in 1978.

So is there a political pendulum in Orange County swinging back from its GOP heydays, as Democrats believe? Or was the sagging Republican performance last November just a technical problem caused by a badly managed campaign year, as many Republicans say?

Republican Chairman Thomas A. Fuentes dismissed the idea of any incursions by Democrats into Orange County’s Republican fortress. All of the county’s Republican incumbents were reelected last November, he noted.

“We are strong and vital,” he said. “I believe that the new year will be an opportunity to revitalize the conservative message.”

But several in the Republican Party have been outspoken about the concern they felt after the November election, when President Bush received the lowest tally in Orange County of any Republican presidential candidate during the past half-century.

Assemblyman Gil Ferguson (R-Newport Beach), a longtime conservative, recently called on the party to abandon its battles over divisive social issues such as abortion and gay rights because, he believes, they are futile and destructive.

He and others have suggested that 1993 should be a year for the Republican Party to heal wounds created by the intraparty disputes and unite under a GOP platform focused on the economy.

“This is a bringing together again of the Reagan coalition, including the moderates and the conservatives,” said Gus Owen, president of the influential Republican Lincoln Club. “I hope that we would divorce ourselves from the social issues that created some of the problems . . . (and) talk about the economic survival of our state.”

But Democratic Chairman Adler said he believes the political environment is changing in a more fundamental way. The job for Democrats, he said, is to be in a position to take advantage of any opportunities that the change might present.

In that context, Orange County Democrats are conducting their first-ever voter registration activities in a non-election year. Adler said the party expects to spend more than $75,000 this year on campaign activities, more than it has spent in some of the past election years.

And as the party out of power, Democrats will also choose where they want to attack the Republicans. The battleground they have designated is in north-central Orange County where the two parties are most evenly matched.

Democrats have their only Orange County foothold in the Garden Grove Assembly seat now held by Tom Umberg. Beginning this year, they plan to concentrate their efforts on the same geographic area in hopes of prying loose the overlapping state Senate and congressional seats.

“I don’t want to go beyond focusing in now on what is really achievable,” Adler said. “When you build a party, you just don’t suddenly change the landscape overnight.”

Two of those three districts already contain a majority of Democratic voters. By 1994, reapportionment is expected to also turn the state Senate district into a Democrat-majority seat.

Republican turnover might also give the Democrats a boost.

Edward R. Royce (R-Anaheim), who currently holds the targeted state Senate seat, was elected to Congress last November, leaving his office vacant until a special election expected this spring. And Rep. Robert K. Dornan (R-Garden Grove), owner of the targeted congressional seat, has said he might sacrifice his office next year to run for the U.S. Senate.

To most voters in Orange County in 1993, much of this power struggle between Republicans and Democrats will probably seem invisible. But for those in the targeted cities of Garden Grove, Santa Ana, Anaheim and surrounding areas, it may seem like the mailbox is never without a campaign letter.

It could all begin in just a few days when Gov. Pete Wilson schedules the special election for Royce’s Senate seat.

Already, the interest among several Republican candidates portends a heated contest. And if Democratic Assemblyman Umberg runs--as he said he might--he could touch off a battle that will be watched statewide to see if Democrats can expand their control in the Senate and in Orange County by stealing another GOP seat.

Democratic Party officials say they are trying to decide whether to make an all-out effort for the Senate seat in the special election or wait until 1994 when reapportionment will make a favorable change in the district’s boundaries.

Among the other political events upcoming in 1993:

* Both political parties will hold elections this month for county officers. Fuentes said he will run again for Republican chairman, and party insiders say he is likely to be reelected. Adler has said he did not want to run for reelection, but he added that he may serve if there is a strong draft movement that does not split the party.

The Republicans’ prestigious Lincoln Club will also hold its first elections ever for new officers.

* The 1994 race for U.S. Senate could also become a parade of familiar faces for Orange County Republicans. Three of the county’s leading political names are being mentioned as possible challengers to Democratic Sen. Feinstein. In addition to Dornan’s expressed interest, Rep. William E. Dannemeyer (R-Fullerton)--who leaves office this month--has already announced he will run. And Rep. Christopher Cox (R-Newport Beach) also is a possibility.

ECONOMY ON THE MEND: Orange County’s recessionary grip is expected to loosen, but the recovery could be slow. B1