Turnover Rate May Be High Again for NFL Coaches

When there were nine coaching moves last season, the National Football League know-it-all types lambasted the season of change. To turn over a coaching staff is to take a step back, they said. Watch out for those inexperienced guys. The game will suffer.

That’s what the critics offered. The critics have vanished. The success of Bill Cowher, Dennis Green, Bobby Ross and Mike Holmgren--none of whom had NFL head-coaching experience before this season--has crushed the notion that new men can’t win. So, what’s the point?

Although we are not encouraging a flock of firings this season, there are some head coaches who need to be evaluated.

Clearly, a change or two will be made, but we want to push the analysis to the limit and play general manager. We’ll discuss some potential changes and we’ll recommend some, even if those clubs aren’t in the mood.

Last season, there were nine coaching changes. For the sake of consistency, we’ll keep it at nine.

We used to have a heart. Happy New Year.

NEW YORK GIANTS

It has been rather clear that the Giants were preparing to dismiss Ray Handley, even before it was made official Wednesday. General Manager George Young knew that Handley had to go, but he also knew it hasn’t all been Handley’s fault. Bill Parcells didn’t quit until May 1991, giving Handley little time to remodel the coaching staff. Super Bowl champions often slide--look at the Washington Redskins of ’88 and ’92. You don’t see anybody trying to fire Joe Gibbs, do you? That’s what Young will tell you. We know Joe Gibbs. . . . Handley is no Gibbs.

The idea behind Handley’s hiring was to facilitate a smooth transition from the Parcells era, but it didn’t happen. Besides new leadership, the Giants need to overhaul the defense and find better wide receivers.

Perhaps the most disturbing trend we saw in 1992 was that of disobedient and disloyal players. The new coach will have to have some heart-to-heart chats with his players.

That’s the key. We have a team here that was accustomed to a coach (Parcells) who specialized in communication and motivation. This apparently was not Handley’s style. In other organizations, he might have survived.

But the environment isn’t going to change in New York/New Jersey. Maybe in another city, Ray. Maybe another day. It was a thankless job. But, goodbye.

Replacement: Dave Wannstedt, Dallas Cowboys defensive coordinator.

Why: Parcells was about the same age as Wannstedt, 41, when the former became the Giants’ coach in 1983. Parcells is not a candidate here because you can’t go home again. The Giants’ defense needs fixing, and Wannstedt has the right mind, the right personality. He also has NFC East experience and some success at stifling the teams the Giants must beat--the Redskins and the Philadelphia Eagles. Not to mention that he might have a few clues on how to beat the new NFC East champs, the Cowboys. Another bonus: By hiring Wannstedt, you hurt Dallas.

CHICAGO BEARS

What to do with Mike Ditka? This guy is in the right place. He is not a wacko, as people want to believe. The NFL needs him. The Bears need him. But we ain’t on the same page here. The coach wants some personnel power, and we’re not into that right now.

Ditka might get frustrated during the next few seasons if he hung around. With the advent of free agency in the NFL, it should be easier to fix what’s wrong with the Bears. But the McCaskey family is unlikely to open the checkbook and do it. The draft fix won’t make it anymore. It’s a new era. The problem here is that we have a personnel director in Bill Tobin whose brother, Vince, happens to be the defensive coordinator.

Everybody suspects Vince Tobin is the leading candidate to replace Ditka. That would be a mistake. A big mistake. Fact is, the most effective hire from within would be running backs coach Johnny Roland.

We know, we know. Roland has never been a head coach, and he never has been a coordinator. But Ditka and Dan Reeves never had any coordinator experience when they got head-coaching jobs. However, this team needs shock treatment, so the hiring of Roland might not work, and Ditka’s tactics don’t work anymore.

Ditka has one year remaining on his contract, which calls for him to make $1 million annually, and the salary isn’t guaranteed. Ah, but we’re going to do the right thing. Mike, here’s your million dollars. Now go to TV land and make another million.

Decision: Encourage Ditka to resign.

Why: Time to move on.

Replacement: Richie Petitbon, the Redskins’ assistant head coach/defense.

Why: Petitbon is the perfect man for this job, not Buddy Ryan. Petitbon is the best available candidate, and this is a job he would leap at. He is a former Bears player. He is smart. He is tough. He would hire a great staff. As a Redskins assistant, he consistently raised the level of performance above the level of available talent. Not only that, but also the NFC Central champion Vikings are running the Redskins’ offense under coordinator Jack Burns. Petitbon vs. Burns? It’s a mismatch. There is nobody we would rather hire here.

PHOENIX CARDINALS

This one hurts. We love Joe Bugel. He has been an extremely loyal coach, despite some changes in the front office. He has had trauma at the quarterback spot, he has endured key injuries on defense and his record is not a true reflection of his ability.

But we’ve got a serious problem here. There are no people in the stands unless the Cowboys show up, and then it’s embarrassing because everybody roots for the visitors.

What we ought to do is give Bugel another season. Through free agency, we can shore up some weaknesses in the offensive line and defense. It is almost shocking that Bugel, a former offensive line coach, let go of an excellent line coach, Tom Lovat, and a fine right tackle, Tootie Robbins, both of whom have found success in Green Bay.

Although Timm Rosenbach has lost his confidence and his starting role, a lot of NFL people are impressed by the development of Chris Chandler under quarterbacks coach Jerry Rhome. Chandler has better physical tools than Rosenbach. But there is nobody showing up at our games. Sorry, we’re going to make a move here. It may be the wrong thing, but we’ve done it before.

Decision: Fire Bugel.

Why: Well, nobody cares. That’s why.

Replacement: Dan Reeves.

Why: Reeves is a free agent whose career in Denver broke up because of differences with owner Pat Bowlen, who fired him Monday. Reeves is a big-name guy, a proven winner. He will give us instant credibility with our fans. He wants power and we can make room for the type of control he wants. The only problem is the image that he can’t handle NFC East teams. All we know is he almost beat the Cowboys with rotating quarterbacks named Tommy Maddox and Shawn Moore. He also looks good with a tan. We’ve got plenty of sun for him.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

First Bugel, now Dick MacPherson. We’re cutting loose some mighty popular and qualified guys here. MacPherson rescued the franchise in 1991 with a fresh, enthusiastic approach that not only lifted the spirits of the players but also of the few remaining fans. Unfortunately, the team has lost its way again, and we’re concerned about Mac’s health.

We also have an interim owner, James Orthwein, who is trying to unload the club because he wants an expansion franchise in St. Louis. A new stadium needs to be in the works before buyers will tackle this franchise, and that’s a tall order here. We need a huge name with a track record. Somebody not afraid to pull punches. Somebody to excite the masses.

Decision: Relieve MacPherson, offer him a front-office job.

Why: Mac’s health, and we’re desperate.

Replacement: Buddy Ryan.

Why: Ryan, the controversial former coach of the Eagles, is the guy who makes the most sense. Buddy will wake these people up. He will sell tickets. He will give us an identity. He will get make us a contender. He knows personnel, especially veteran players, and that makes him ideal in the new era of free agents. Come on back, Buddy. No blackball here.

NEW YORK JETS

Surprise, surprise. OK, Bruce Coslet has just finished his third season, and we all know that he must have made a deal with GM Dick Steinberg to play young quarterback Browning Nagle. The results were dismal.

There are some things we just didn’t count on when Coslet was hired. Nobody said he was a know-it-all who doesn’t know it all. For all the fuss made about Ray Handley, Coslet might have done a worse job in this town.

Coslet does not develop talent. His sole responsibility is the offense, and it’s the offense that let us down. The offense has been a lot like his personality--mixed. His work with Nagle has been unimpressive. Instead of sticking with the running game (the Jets were among the top rushing teams the previous two seasons), Coslet seemed intent on proving he is a quarterback maker, a la Bill Walsh.

He is no Bill Walsh. He forced Nagle’s development and the team suffered.

Decision: Fire Coslet.

Why: You’ll see.

Replacement: Pete Carroll.

Why: Carroll, the Jets’ defensive coordinator, has shown he can motivate and develop talent. It has been the defense that has improved most since Coslet was hired. True, Carroll didn’t help his image with the choke sign in Miami recently, but he immediately apologized. He is an emotional guy, but he generally is in control. We believe Carroll will take over the leadership role and find the right man to run the offense. He is good with the media, which is a must here. Credit Coslet for hiring Carroll, but it is apparent Carroll is ready to take over this club. It makes for a smooth transition.

HOUSTON OILERS

Jack Pardee inherited a pretty talented bunch and has done a nice job. But, like Jerry Glanville before him, he has not taken it to the next level.

True, the ongoing management conflicts with several players have hurt Pardee. But Pardee just may not be the coach to reach the Super Bowl. He also is married to the run-and-shoot offense, and it just may not be complete enough to win the whole thing. Some of the Oilers’ defeats this season were unforgivable. There is not a more decent fellow coaching in the league. It’s a hard decision, but these are hard times.

Decision: Fire Pardee.

Why: Searching for that beautiful reward.

Replacement: Tony Dungy, Minnesota Vikings defensive coordinator.

Why: The Oilers’ problems are not unlike the ones Green had when he took over the Vikings. The front office and the players were estranged, and Green fixed that. Dungy has witnessed those effects, and he is a players’ coach--not that Pardee isn’t. Dungy’s fresh approach will unify this group. His smart, aggressive defensive style will fit well with the personnel. He knows the league and will surround himself with a capable offensive staff.

RAIDERS

Oh, this is tough. Art Shell might be all right if the Raiders made a commitment to hire a true offensive coordinator and moved back to Oakland. But there are so many problems, and we’re not certain Shell can get us through them.

The Raiders need to fill huge Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in order to generate some enthusiasm for the players. It’s a bummer walking into this historic stadium and seeing it half empty. In this town, it’s a war over the entertainment dollar.

First, Al Davis is going to have to fork over some of that money he has been pocketing and get himself a marquee coach who can win, baby. We also need to buy some veteran free agents, starting with a quarterback. We need offensive linemen, receivers with speed who can also catch and a running back with fresh legs. We need linebackers.

We need a new look but not a finesse style that wouldn’t fit this franchise. Davis might have had the right idea when he hired an outsider in Mike Shanahan. It just may have been the wrong outsider.

Decision: Replace Shell.

Why: In Los Angeles, Shell is not the right guy. In Oakland, he is.

Replacement: Bill Parcells.

Why: Even in this town, Parcells is going to sell season tickets. He also is a great motivator. He plays a physical brand of football, which keeps our image intact. Importantly, he is a confidant of Davis. They talk the same talk. Davis needs to put his guard down, bring in Parcells and allow the coach to have more input into personnel decisions. At the same time, Parcells can get a commitment he needs from a football man. It’s a warm-weather city, which isn’t bad. Parcells also will deal well with the large media contingent. He’s a winner, baby.

ATLANTA FALCONS

When Jerry Glanville got the job here in 1989, the franchise and the city were in need of a jump-start. Glanville provided it. And, typically, Glanville’s methods were effective by the second season, when the Falcons went 10-6 and registered a playoff victory.

This season was just as typical of Glanville. His act is wearing thin, on the fans and the players. Actually, personnel director Ken Herock was fixing the team’s talent problem before Glanville arrived. But Glanville has begun to sabotage Herock’s work.

No doubt, Glanville is making another effort to gain control of the personnel decisions. Glanville’s doghouse has a revolving door, and it cost them a young quarterback in Brett Favre. Glanville’s dislike for Favre forced Herock to trade him to Green Bay--a move that may turn out to be one of the great blunders of the ‘90s.

When the Falcons met some of the best teams in the NFL this season, it was sad. In four games against San Francisco (twice), Dallas and Buffalo, the Falcons were outscored, 179-51. That should tell you a lot.

Decision: Fire Glanville.

Why: Why delay the inevitable?

Replacement: Dennis Erickson, University of Miami coach.

Why: Erickson is a great candidate who has good rapport with his players and would stabilize this team. Erickson also would be a marquee name who would keep the fan base from eroding. He is a leader, well-organized and guaranteed to hire better people than Glanville. Erickson can take us to the Super Bowl.

The ninth coaching change? It was the first move made Monday, when the Denver Broncos fired Dan Reeves to end the conflict between him and Owner Pat Bowlen.