1993 A LOOK AHEAD: Taking a Cosmic View of the Economy : Seers of Galaxies and Gigabytes

When it comes to making predictions about--and in many cases for--the business world, Laura Rose DesJardins goes the distance.

Armed with a state-of-the-art software program and a complicated series of formulas, she says she is able to provide her clients with the vital statistics they need to make important financial decisions for the year ahead--if you believe in her methodology, that is.

DesJardins describes herself as a cosmic biologist--in lay language, an astrologer. For the past 20 years she has discreetly charted business courses for some of Orange County’s toniest boardrooms, making a decent living at it in the process.

This year, the owner of Astro-Forecast in Costa Mesa and director of Southern California Astrological Network has agreed to go public and demonstrate her prognosticating prowess for The Times Orange County Edition.

We asked DesJardins to go head-to-head against the renowned Chapman University economics department, which uses its own sets of charts and formulas to make yearly predictions about the business climate in Orange County.

The Chapman University findings were made public a week after DesJardins made her predictions for The Times. Esmael Adibi, head of Chapman University’s Center for Economic Research, agreed to pit his skills against those of DesJardins.

Predictions were made in four broad categories: high technology (computers and defense-related manufacturing), health care (medical services, biotechnological and biomedical manufacturing), real estate (residential, commercial and public infrastructure), and tourism and entertainment.

DesJardins and Adibi were asked to apply their respective methodologies to make forecasts in each of the categories as well as general predictions about Orange County.

In doing so, Adibi and his crew of number crunchers used such indicators as gross county product--the sum of all goods and services sold in the county; employment and inflation rates; government spending, and wages and salaries.

DesJardins, using the incorporation dates of certain trend-setting companies as well as the 1888 “birth date” of Orange County, plotted the economic course dictated by the planets and their relationships to the constellations.

Surprisingly (or perhaps not), there were more similarities than differences in the predictions made by DesJardins and the Chapman team. In fact, the forecasts were almost identical in many areas.

The results may make the case either for the accuracy of astrology as a scientific discipline or--dare we say it?--the tendency of economists not to rise above pedestrian observations.

We’ll let you be the judge of that. In any case, at the end of 1993, we will review these predictions and report their accuracy.

Orange County

1992 was not the best of times for those struggling to make ends meet behind the Orange Curtain. Jobs were lost by the thousands, the defense industry kept shrinking, and homeowners saw the value of their property decline--a phenomenon unheard of in the building-boom 1980s.

How much different will this year be? DesJardins and Adibi both predict a mixed bag for Orange County. As a whole, the area will continue its painful search for a new economic balance as well as a new image. Some sectors will continue to issue bad news for the foreseeable future, while others will have rosier stories to tell.

The reasons for the continued slump are many.

Looking at employment trends, Adibi and DesJardins both predict that those in the county’s long jobless lines won’t be in for any relief soon. But by midyear, work-force cuts will level off, they say.

“After that, the rate of decline will stabilize,” Adibi said. “We’ll see job growth in the latter part of 1993.”

The reason, Adibi said, is that the recession is all but over nationally, and Orange County will inevitably, if belatedly, be swept along in the recovery.

In addition, foreign trade is on the upswing, both exports and imports. That national trend will mean more local jobs in the year ahead as companies hire workers to fill production and distribution quotas.

On the down side, Orange County was hit harder than almost any other area in the United States when the defense industry took it on the chin. In fact, Adibi said, military contractors have not seen the bottom yet, and further losses could offset any great gains in other areas. “But that is a wild card,” Adibi said.

DesJardins agrees wholeheartedly that foreign trade will be a major factor in Orange County’s recovery. That is because the Orange County chart is being influenced strongly by Sagittarius, which controls anything foreign, such as travel and trade.

In addition, Jupiter is prominent in Orange County’s chart during this period and will remain so for the next year. And because Jupiter is the ruler of Sagittarius, the influence is stronger than ever, DesJardins said.

She also agreed that Orange County will begin to move out of the dark recessionary influences by year’s end. The area is, after all, a Leo, characterized by high energy and gregariousness.

That Leo character has been dampened, DesJardins said, by Saturn, which also has a strong influence in Orange County’s chart. Saturn in this case represents winter and lack of vitality. Until the planets move from that configuration, the area’s problems will continue.

“The county will still have a certain amount of coldness to it,” DesJardins said.

In terms of management, DesJardins went out on a limb by predicting that the county will see a slew of internal struggles at some of its largest companies. The influence of Pluto in management upheavals will also show up in city and county government.

All in all, DesJardins and Adibi agree that, while this year will be an improvement, the county will not escape from the influences of the slump.

If you are keeping score: The Orange County economy as a whole gets a thumbs down from both Adibi and DesJardins.

High Tech

Because Orange County’s high-tech companies have suffered greatly as the world economy reorders itself, any forecast must address the issue of where that sector, especially the defense industry, is going.

There are no surprises here. Both the economist and the astrologer agree that the only thing left to be written about defense here is the obituary.

Other than that, however, the high-tech sector will be a chief beneficiary of the rise in foreign trade. With the increasing focus on computers, technology (excluding medical devices) will continue to be a force in the county, if not to the same degree this year as during boom times.

Exports will drive the commercial sector of the high-tech industry in Orange County, Adibi said.

Many computer companies have already restructured themselves, cutting out fat and making themselves “ready to move forward,” Adibi said. As profit margins improve, Adibi said, he foresees a larger investment in research and development, which will give Orange County companies an edge in the marketplace.

But what kind of new computer products will drive the high-tech industry?

With Uranus, the planet of high tech, in conjunction with Neptune, the water planet, DesJardins looks for a new wave of visual computer systems designed by Orange County companies. She foresees three-dimensional technology in computers taking off this year.

Also in the cards: Two prominent Orange County computer companies will undergo power struggles at the top. In at least one company, she says, the chief executive will be replaced.

Overall, DesJardins and Adibi said, the computer industry will see marked increases in productivity and sales in the months ahead, but not enough to counter the losses in the defense side of the high-tech sector.

“This is just the very beginning (of recovery),” DesJardins said.

Score: Give this industry a thumbs down from Adibi and a less than enthusiastic thumbs up from DesJardins.

Health Care

The real leader among this year’s winners will be health care, according to both DesJardins and Adibi, whether in the medical-services sector (hospitals and health-maintenance organizations, for example) or in the manufacturing and distribution sector.

Their predictions follow conventional wisdom: Proposed changes in the health-care system under the Clinton Administration have already raised expectations within the industry as well as on Wall Street, where stocks of managed-care companies, such as PacifiCare Health Systems in Cypress and FHP Inc. in Fountain Valley, are already doing well.

In addition, Adibi pointed out, as the baby boom generation ages in the next decade, all drug companies, medical-device makers and service organizations such as HMOs and hospitals will be the beneficiaries. That aging generation will spur an increased demand for improved ways to get well and stay well.

“This is a national phenomenon,” Adibi said. “And you will see the effect this year.”

There is also a move toward “synergy,” or cooperation in research between companies and public institutions. An example is the proposed UC Irvine Center for Health Sciences, which would give start-up, research-oriented companies the incentive to produce a range of new medical and pharmaceutical products.

“This will be an area (where) we anticipate the most job growth and expansion,” Adibi said. “There are a lot of initiatives to capitalize on the growth of health care. It’s very promising.”

What do the stars say?

With Neptune ruling pharmaceuticals, DesJardins said, “we will be getting into a whole new focus.”

Because of the planets’ configuration, DesJardins said, even the Food and Drug Administration, which many industry insiders complain drags its feet too long during the approval process, will lighten up and help speed things along.

DesJardins also said that the influence of Mercury in the charts of the largest local health-care companies suggests active advertising campaigns. The companies will be more aggressive in pitching their wares, giving them greater market share domestically and abroad. Again, she said, the foreign market is the key.

“There’s going to be a lot going on in health care this year,” she said.

Score: It’s two hearty thumbs up for this sector.

Tourism and Entertainment

Tourism and entertainment have always been important for Orange County, accounting for about 11% of its jobs.

But last year was not kind to tourism, which suffered after April’s riots in Los Angeles, the series of earthquakes over the summer and the global recession. Those factors acted as a deterrent to potential tourists, especially those from other countries who have been spooked by the Southland’s well-publicized problems.

Nevertheless, 1993 will be a boom time for both tourism and entertainment, DesJardins and Adibi predict. With the rest of the nation all but out of the recession, the trickle-down effect should help this flagging sector.

Adibi forecasts employment growth of 2% in tourism and entertainment as hotels, amusement parks, restaurants and movie theaters gear up for increased business.

DesJardins said she was surprised by what she saw in the chart concerning tourism and entertainment.

“It looks a lot better than I thought,” she said. “It looks good for all of 1993.”

Driving tourism is the constellation Sagittarius, which represents travel. Beginning this year, DesJardins said, people will be traveling to Orange County in droves from foreign countries and well as other areas of the United States.

“Business should be pretty good,” she said. “But that business will be coming from the outside.”

Score: Give this industry two thumbs up.

Real Estate

We saved the worst news for last.

If you are in the real estate industry, consider a career change. If you own property, stay put.

That’s the advice from both Adibi and DesJardins, who agree that the real estate industry will continue to struggle this year. After that, there will be only slow growth as the surplus housing stock is eaten up.

Not until 1995 at the earliest will the situation begin to improve noticeably. Even then, the industry will be a shadow of its former self.

“We will see some life, but nothing in comparison to what it was,” Adibi said.

Real estate’s difficulties spring from two factors that will persist through 1993, Adibi said. First, conspicuous overbuilding in both residential and commercial real estate has made for a glut that will take several years to work off. Second, he said, the trend by businesses to trim the fat means not only do they have an abundant supply of empty desks, but many production facilities have more floor space then they need.

For the year ahead, he predicts further real estate devaluation of about 2.8%: “The bottom line is that we have more supply than demand.”

DesJardins contends that the problem stems from the fact that Saturn, Neptune and Uranus have been in Capricorn--which represents limitations, restrictions, losses and delays--since 1989, when the market began to shrink. The combined force of those planets in conjunction made for a particularly bad period.

Though Saturn has now moved out of Capricorn, DesJardins said, the “damage has already been done.” In fact, the influence of that 3-year-old configuration will keep prices down for the next several years. Only when all three planets reposition themselves in 1995 will there be relief in the real estate industry.

“That is why it is so much worse than other times,” DesJardins said.

Score: An unequivocal thumbs down from both DesJardins and Adibi.

Predicting Orange County’s Economy The Times Orange County Edition pitted an economist against an astrologer and asked each to make some predictions about the county’s economy, using the tools of their respective trades. The Economist, Esmael Adibi Director of Chapman University’s Center for Economic Research; a Virgo The Tools Chapman Leading Indicator Series * Gross county product * Wage and salary employment * Taxable sales * Bank deposits * Housing prices * Powerful computer with specialized program for economic analysis The Astrologer, Laura Rose DesJardins Owner of Astro-Forecast in Costa Mesa, director of Southern California Astrological Network; a Scorpio. The Tools * Birth charts of company presidents and selected Orange County companies * Cosmobiology wheel, a timing device used for predicting events * Ephemeris, a book that gives daily planetary positions * Powerful computer to calculate planetary positions Chapman Indicator Series The Indicator is an index that reflects real gross domestic product, shipment of manufactured defense goods, the value of imports and exports, and the total construction spending in Orange County. 1987 1st quarter: 5.7 1997 4th quarter: -0.2 The Charts Sun sign: Leo, the sign of power, influence and prosperity. Orange County demonstrates authority, leadership and a sense of generosity. It is influential and very popular, and does well in the communications field and is very skilled at implementing change. Rising sign: Libra, the sign of balance. The county is very socially adept and diplomatic, and has the ability to reflect what people want. Moon sign: Sagittarius, the sign of travel, foreign affairs, abundance and economic success; Jupiter is also in Sagittarius, making Orange County very worldly and giving it the ability to attract international business. The county also has people from many different nationalities living here and interested in the area. Ready, Set, Go: The Predictions HIGH-TECH Economist: Exports will fuel the high-tech industry. Restructured computer companies are more competitive now, making them ready to move forward. Look for marked increases in productivity and sales, but not enough to counterbalance losses in the defense side of the high-tech industry. Astrologer: With Uranus, the planet of high tech, in conjunction with Neptune, the water planet, look for a new wave of visual computer systems designed by Orange County companies. Three-dimensional technology in computers will take off in 1993. “This is just the very beginning” of recovery. HEALTH CARE Economist: The aging baby boom generation will mean strong profits for drug companies, medical-device makers and service organizations such as HMOs and hospitals. The net effect will be felt in the coming year. Look for strong job growth and expansion. “It’s very promising.” Astrologer: With Neptune ruling pharmaceuticals, look for a whole new focus. The influence of Mercury in the charts of the largest local health-care companies suggests that they will gain greater market share domestically and abroad. TOURISM AND ENTERTAINMENT Economist: With the rest of the nation all but out of the recession, the trickle-down effect should help the tourism and entertainment industry this year. There will likely be 2% employment growth as the industry gears up for increased business. Astrologer: “It looks a lot better than I thought. It looks good for all of 1993.” Sagittarius rules travel, and beginning in 1993 people will be traveling into Orange County in droves from foreign countries as well as other areas of the United States. REAL ESTATE Economist: “We will see some life, but nothing in comparison to what it was.” The conspicuous overbuilding in both residential and commercial real estate has made for a surplus that will take several years to work down. There will be further real estate devaluation of about 2.8%. “The bottom line is that we have more supply than demand.” Astrologer: Real estate problems stem from the fact that Saturn, Neptune and Uranus have been in Capricorn since 1989. Saturn has moved out of Capricorn, but the damage has already been done. The influence of that 3-year-old configuration will keep prices down for the next several years. In 1995, there will some relief. Researched by DALLAS M. JACKSON / Los Angeles Times