Germans, Boeing Eye Jet Accord : Aerospace: Talks to build a super-jumbo aircraft surprise analysts. Such a venture could drive a wedge into Airbus Industrie, Boeing’s chief rival.

In an international alliance that could recast the aerospace industry, Boeing Co. and Germany’s Deutsche Aerospace are discussing the possible joint production of a new super-jumbo airliner that would carry 550 to 800 passengers.

The talks are part of a wide range of discussions among the world’s leading commercial aerospace companies, including McDonnell Douglas Corp., several major Japanese manufacturers and other European firms.

A venture linking Boeing and Deutsche Aerospace could drive a wedge into Airbus Industrie, the European aircraft consortium that is Boeing’s chief rival. The deal would almost certainly create a barrier to Airbus’ other two key partners--British Aerospace and France’s Aerospatiale--for entering the super-jumbo jet market.

If a deal goes forward, Boeing would be assured of retaining its 2-decade-old monopoly on the large-aircraft market and of gaining a strong marketing presence in Europe. For the first time, however, the company would share a major source of sales and profits with an equity partner.

Analysts said the aircraft could cost up to a record $25 billion to develop. Boeing officials would not discuss the price, saying the cost depends on the ultimate design.

“The airplane we are talking about is unique in that the magnitude of risk is substantially more than anything we have seen in the past,” said John Hayhurst, Boeing’s vice president for large-airplane development.

The risk is heightened by the tough market for the jetliner. Hayhurst said Boeing studies show that the market could not profitably support more than one producer, but he declined to say how many airplanes the firm expects to sell.

Airport congestion, particularly in Europe, is expected to force airlines to build larger aircraft.

So far, the Boeing talks include an agreement to conduct a 12- to 18-month “joint feasibility study,” after which the two parties would continue to study the aircraft or abandon the effort, a company spokesman said. The talks were first reported by the Wall Street Journal.

If a deal is worked out, the actual development of the new aircraft might stretch to 1995. The plane would enter service in 2000.

Hayhurst said it is too early to say which company would assemble the aircraft. Boeing leads all of its commercial aircraft teams, although it has a subservient role to Northrop Corp. in the B-2 bomber program and to Lockheed in the F-22 fighter program.

Hayhurst said Boeing has also held talks on the project with British Aerospace, but the focus now is on Deutsche Aerospace, a unit of Daimler Benz. In addition, Boeing has met with its big Japanese partners on the 777 program: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Fuji Heavy Industries and Kawasaki Heavy Industries.

Hayhurst declined to identify other firms, but said Boeing has had talks with additional U.S. and European firms.

A McDonnell spokesman said the company was “a little surprised” by the Boeing announcement because the talks are so preliminary. He said McDonnell also had “some very informal talks about participating in the joint feasibility study.”

Meanwhile, McDonnell is continuing to study its MD-12 jetliner, which would carry 430 passengers.

That jetliner’s fate hinges on the firm finding a partner willing to buy an interest in the Douglas Aircraft unit, so far a tough sell.

The Boeing announcement stunned many analysts, who had assumed that either Airbus Industrie, Boeing or possibly McDonnell Douglas would try to seize an advantage in the super-jumbo market by launching its own development effort.

A deal with Deutsche Aerospace would have obvious benefits for Boeing, allowing the firm to defray some of its risk, circumventing potential competition by Airbus and providing important market access to Europe.

But experts were less certain about why Deutsche Aerospace would bolt from the Airbus consortium after investing so heavily in the venture for the last 15 years.

“It is going to make everybody else in Airbus really mad,” said Booz Allen & Hamilton consultant John Harbison.

Indeed, Airbus spokesman David Venz characterized the possible venture as “just an awful lot of talk, talk, talk talk. The major players in this industry are talking to each other all around the world.” Venz said Airbus continues its own interest in building a large airplane.

Airbus itself held extensive talks with McDonnell in the mid-1980s regarding a joint venture to build a medium-size jetliner. Those talks eventually ended, and the two firms built competing aircraft, the A-330 and the MD-11.

But Venz acknowledged that Airbus would prefer that Deutsche Aerospace remain in the Airbus fold and forgo a linkup with Boeing.

Morgan Stanley aerospace analyst Phil Friedman said the linkup could be the start of a new arrangement in aerospace programs in which “every new product will stand on its own” in terms of global alliances.

“The ideal joint ventures in this business will have European, Asian and American partners,” Friedman said.

Friedman termed a linkup between Boeing and Deutsche Aerospace a “long-term strategic positive for Boeing because it could break Airbus from getting into the high end of the market.”