DIPLOMACY : Salinas Hopes Clinton Meeting Will Calm Trade-Pact Fears

The U.S. President-elect traditionally meets with the president of Mexico before Inauguration Day to salute the binational relationship. In that sense, the encounter between Bill Clinton and Carlos Salinas de Gortari in Austin, Tex., today is nothing out of the ordinary.

But this meeting was by no means guaranteed. The Mexican government lobbied and negotiated to bring it about. The fact that Salinas is the only foreign head of state Clinton will see before taking office is a feather in Salinas’ cap--one he badly wanted.

Salinas has been working hard to dispel the impression that he was too close to President Bush and bet on the wrong horse in the U.S. presidential race. He needs to reassure skittish investors that he can work with Clinton to keep the North American Free Trade Agreement on track. The accord would join the United States, Canada and Mexico in a trade bloc with a 360-million-consumer market.

“All Mexican economic policy is practically hostage to the outcome of the agreement,” said Rogelio Ramirez de la O, an economic analyst. “For that reason, this meeting was absolutely necessary for Salinas. Every single word that comes out of it is going to be carefully scrutinized to see if Clinton will commit the political capital to pull the agreement through Congress.”

Most of the approximately $17 billion in foreign capital that came to Mexico last year is sitting in short-term investments, waiting to see if the trade agreement is finalized.

“It is extremely volatile,” Ramirez said.

Clinton and Salinas aides have said they do not expect to enter into details of the trade pact during the 90-minute get-acquainted meeting.

“We expect to establish a personal, direct relationship with the new President and to review the agenda of the binational relationship,” said a Mexican presidential spokesman. “Of course, we will discuss trade, but there is enough openness on both sides so that there are not any artificial obstacles to the agreement.”

Although new U.S. presidents once could expect to meet Mexican leaders who were guarded and resentful of the giant power to the north, Clinton will meet with a Harvard-educated president who has tied Mexico’s future to the United States. According to a Foreign Ministry official, Salinas plans to outline for Clinton the “economic and political reforms” that have taken place under his administration, from neo-liberal economic restructuring to reforms in land ownership and renewed relations with the Roman Catholic Church.

The two leaders will apparently also discuss narcotics trafficking, border problems and immigration.

“It will be a short meeting, and we hope there will be an opportunity to talk about pluses and minuses, and among the minuses we would also want to touch on sovereignty and intervention and the extraterritorial application of laws and the extradition treaty,” said the Foreign Ministry official, who asked not to be identified.

Mexico wants to amend the extradition treaty to include a specific ban on kidnapings such as the 1989 abduction of Dr. Humberto Alvarez Machain. A U.S. federal judge in Los Angeles acquitted Alvarez Machain of charges related to the murder of U.S. drug agent Enrique S. Camarena, and the doctor was returned to Mexico.

Free trade obviously is the priority issue and is likely to dominate the talks. Clinton has endorsed the agreement but with reservations. He wants additional accords and legislation to protect the environment and U.S. jobs. It is unclear how deep he will delve into the issue today, but eventually he is expected to insist that Mexico raise its environmental standards for industries and subscribe to a credible verification procedure.

Some political observers speculate that Clinton may go so far as to link his backing of the agreement to Mexican help in controlling emigration to the United States and that he may also reopen the issue of guaranteeing oil supplies to the United States and Canada, something Mexico refused to include in the accord.