National Agenda : A Sea Change in Ireland : Half the population is under 25. And that spells trouble for the Old Guard. : Traditional politics, social mores and religion are being challenged.

As Irish political leaders maneuver to broker still another shaky coalition government--expected to be formed this week--young Irish citizens across the island are calling for bedrock change.

In the European Community’s youngest country--half the population is under 25--a new generation of voters seem eager to break out of political and social stereotypes that have tied their elders to the battles and ideas of the past.

They say they want a change from traditional party politics; change from the traditional authority of the Roman Catholic Church; change from their country’s traditional restrictions on divorce and abortion, and change from the painful history of emigration that has contributed mightily to a drop in Ireland’s population from 8.5 million midway through the 19th Century to 3.5 million toward the end of the 20th.

And these young people are making their desires felt. They were one reason that Ireland’s two major political parties--Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, whose rivalry has dominated Irish political history for decades--suffered severe reverses in the general election last November that set up the current round of coalition negotiations.

“We don’t necessarily want to vote as our parents and grandparents did,” said one young student on the leafy, Gothic quadrangle of Cork’s University College. “The major parties were founded in the Irish Civil War. But that was 70 years ago. Things have changed.”

Fianna Fail, the more rural and traditional of the two parties and identified more closely with the Catholic Church, recorded its poorest showing since 1927, losing nine seats in the Dail--the lower house of Parliament--after winning only 41% of the November ballot. Founded by famed Irish revolutionary Eamon de Valera, Fianna Fail grew out of those who rejected anything less than full separation from Britain--repudiating the 1921 treaty that created the Irish Free State as a British dominion. (The fully independent Republic of Ireland was proclaimed in 1949.)

The more liberal Fine Gael, meanwhile, lost 10 Dail seats and, with only 27.1% of the November vote, had its poorest showing since 1957. Fine Gael is the successor to a party that held power from the creation of the Irish Free State until 1932.

“People today are putting the Civil War long behind them,” commented an Irish diplomatic official in Dublin. “Which side you once supported no longer has any meaning for young people.”

*

The big gainer in November’s balloting was the upstart Labor Party, which ran on a platform of change under its energetic, 42-year-old leader, Dick Spring. Labor more than doubled its representation in the Dail with nearly 20% of the vote.

Another Cork student, Ronan Nangle, 21, suggested: “Though jobs are hard to find, much change is going on in Ireland. There was a big swing to the Labor Party in the elections, which shows that the days of the Old Guard running the country to their liking may be over.”

While Labor’s victory might seem to be a shot in the arm for Ireland’s advocates of change, however, Spring has already run into criticism for seeking a coalition partnership with the old-guard Fianna Fail. The leader of Fianna Fail, Prime Minister Albert Reynolds, precipitated the elections by insulting his last coalition partner, Des O’Malley of the smaller Progressive Democrats.

Ireland’s young people seem increasingly put off by the whole spectacle. As Cork University student Rory Morrison put it: “How can you be confident of politicians when they can’t sort themselves out?”

And if they can’t sort themselves out, what of Ireland’s problems, which hit young people particularly hard, driving them from their native land in search of opportunities?

Economists suggest that Irish economic fundamentals are not bad: low inflation and a medium rate of growth. “The problem is translating good fundamentals into job creation in a country with the highest birthrate in the European Community,” remarked one specialist.

*

Those out of work now stand at nearly 20% of the labor force--double the rate in neighboring Britain. It’s no wonder that so many of the country’s best and brightest, well trained at its generally excellent colleges and universities, see little alternative but emigration to find the careers they seek.

Sitting in the spacious cafeteria at Cork’s University College, 21-year-old Gilda Kelly, a third-year student majoring in modern languages and sociology, explained: “Most of us are expecting to emigrate for jobs--perhaps in London or the Continent. There’s very little chance of getting anything in Ireland without three or four years’ experience. We hate to leave, but we have to leave Ireland.”

A plus side of youthful emigration is that it makes room for older job-seekers. Also, whereas once emigration was for good, Irish emigrants now can think about coming back.

In fact, following a decade in which the country had a net out-migration of more than 200,000 people, it has seen as many return in the last two years as have left, according to government estimates. That’s partly because the recession has dried up opportunities in the United States and Western Europe. But some hope that it may be the beginning of a trend.

Annraoi Wyer, a lean, 29-year-old art teacher lunching at a popular pub in the Wicklow Hills south of Dublin, noted: “Ireland is a beautiful place to live and bring up children. The problem is jobs. My brother took an economics degree, worked with the Bank of America in Los Angeles, has returned to work for the Investment Bank of Ireland. That is the pattern to which many aspire--working abroad and being able to return to a good job.”

Those who don’t go overseas mostly gravitate to Dublin, where fully one-third of the country’s inhabitants now live, leaving increasingly empty villages behind.

The pull to the capital is particularly strong for the young: Dublin means bright lights, rock bands, discos and lively quarters like Temple Bar, known as Dublin’s Left Bank.

The postal district “Dublin 4” has become a popular synonym for middle-class, educated affluence and a liberal ethos in social values.

“Dublin’s a magnet,” said an Irish official. “It brings a liberal spirit, far from villages where everyone knows what you’re doing. But it also brings all the problems of big cities: crime and corruption.”

As they leave the village, Ireland’s young also tend to leave behind many of the more conservative teachings of the predominant Catholic Church.

“The Catholic Church doesn’t have half the control it did 20--or even 10--years ago,” said student Nangle.

*

The church’s image also suffered because of last year’s scandal involving Galway Bishop Eamonn Casey, perhaps the best-known cleric in Ireland, who admitted to fathering a son by an American divorcee.

What seems to have upset ordinary Irish citizens is not so much the conservative cleric’s long involvement in an affair--often called his “fall from grace”--but that he apparently supported the family with church funds.

Then there was the controversial case of “Miss X,” the 14-year-old schoolgirl who became pregnant after she was raped by a family friend. Backed by the church, the government at first denied permission for her to travel to England for an abortion--a decision later rescinded by the Supreme Court, which ruled that abortion abroad is permissible if the woman is suicidal.

The continued unclear status of abortion here will probably have to be resolved by legislation this year, according to political analysts. As the Irish Times editorialized, “The abortion issue has now been returned by the electorate to the legislature, where it ought to have been decided in the first place.”

Public opinion polls show that most Irish favor some kind of legal divorce and limited abortion.

Meanwhile, the country’s most popular politician--Mary Robinson, a feminist and civil rights lawyer who became the country’s first woman president in 1990--also champions a more liberal agenda.

*

Political observers say her success was behind a doubling of the number of female deputies elected to Parliament last November and a further acceptance of women in important jobs and public life.

A member of the Labor Party, the president has taken such unprecedented steps as inviting acknowledged homosexuals to visit her office and flying to Somalia to lend her support to food aid.

There has also been a sea change among Ireland’s younger generation on the once-heated subject of Northern Ireland and the outlawed Irish Republican Army.

“We just wish it would go away,” said a student in Dublin. “It’s only a few die-hards who are building bombs.”

“The Irish are much less keen on the IRA than some Irish-Americans in the big cities,” added an Irish diplomat. “History made us what we are--but that’s the past. Overseas Irish remember the Ireland they and their forebears left--in their heads and in their hearts. But that’s not the Ireland of today. This is a new Ireland.”

Party Mood

More Irish abandoning traditional parties for Labor. Seats in Dall (Parliament) after general election.:

Fianna Fail, 1992: 68

Fine Gael, 1992: 45

Labor, 1992: 33

Other, 1992: 20

Homeward Bound

More emigrants are coming back, causing a net migration gain.

Estimated net migration in thousands (in the year to mid-April):

1989: -49,000

1992: 2,000

(minus equals outflow) Source: Irish government