TRAVEL INSIDER : Egypt’s Breakthrough Tourism Plan Goes Bust : Economy: Cairo expected a big influx of American tourists--but got an earthquake and terrorist bullets.

Not so long ago, this was going to be Egypt’s breakthrough year as an American vacation spot.

The slump from the 1991 Gulf War was over. Tourism officials had developed a five-year U.S promotion plan. And during September, the country played host to more than 6,000 American travel agents, tour operators, airline officials and other travel professionals attending the American Society of Travel Agents’ annual World Travel Conference. For the Egyptian economy, which even in 1991 took in an estimated $3 billion in international tourism revenues, this boded well indeed.

Then things started going very wrong.

First, a few weeks after the travel congress, the Earth moved. An October earthquake leveled buildings and killed more than 400 people. The toll was heavy, but not as damaging to the nation’s tourism industry as what came next.

Some militant Muslim fundamentalists, campaigning to banish alcohol consumption and Western fashions, and to bring the entire nation under strict Islamic law, began targeting tourists for terrorism. The timing, says Egypt tour specialist Samir Khalil of Misr Travel in New York, was “incredible . . . . We had a lot of cancellations, and we had a lot of people thinking twice, and a slowdown in future bookings.”

Egyptian officials have discounted those incidents as isolated acts, and point out that militant Muslims make up a minority in a country known for its religious diversity. And the U.S. State Department has been notably restrained in its warnings about traveling there. But many travel professionals acknowledge that Egypt’s allure now carries with it a question that no nation can answer with absolute confidence: Is it safe?

Here’s some of the background a traveler should consider:

The attractions: Egypt’s pyramids and temples can’t be matched anywhere. The Nile is arguably the world’s most famous river, and resorts stand at the shores of the Red Sea. Even jaded travelers brighten when talk turns to the variety and energy found on the streets of Cairo. “It’s a fantastic destination,” says Klaus Billep, owner of Universal Travel System, a Santa Monica travel agency and tour company that sent about 300 travelers to Egypt last year. “Good hotels,” he says. “Excellent sights. Lots of history. Very interesting Nile River cruises, with luxurious boats. It’s very easy for every traveler, regardless of age.”

Even before demand started to falter, Egypt was already viewed as a good value for U.S. tourists. Though air fares from Los Angeles are hefty (restricted round-trip fares for connections through London were running at $1,360 and up this month), hotels are plentiful, and many offer rates at and below $60 per night for double rooms. A typical 14-day tour package, including a Nile cruise and most meals (but no air fare), runs $1,920 per person, double occupancy.

The September sell: “We thought maybe (the travel agents’ conference) would be a starting point,” recalls Samir Khalil. “We delayed inviting ASTA for a couple of years until we had infrastructure in place to handle the congress. There were a lot of doubts about the ability of Egypt to handle such a congress--the safety, the whole thing. But we were very determined.”

By all accounts, the September event went well. Attendance surpassed previous gatherings in Taipei (1991) and Hamburg (1990), and the opinion-shapers who came saw the bustle of Cairo, the waters of the Nile, the pyramids of Giza and other ancient Egyptian attractions, all without a major incident. Nancy Gravatt, director of public relations for ASTA, called the congress “a tremendously positive experience” and anticipated “a new wave of interest” in travel to Egypt. Then came the quake and the troubles.

The troubles: The first major incident came Oct. 21, at the onset of the tourist high season, when gunmen attacked a tour bus north of Luxor. A British nurse was killed and two British men were wounded. In the past month alone, three incidents have been reported: a bomb thrown at a busload of South Korean tourists near the pyramids of Giza, causing slight damage; shots fired two weeks ago at another bus, this one holding German tourists, and, last Tuesday, yet another gunman firing on German tourists in a bus, this time in Assiut, between Cairo and Luxor. In both shootings, the gunmen missed.

Weighing those and earlier incidents, Times Cairo correspondent Kim Murphy has counted one dead and 17 foreigners injured in more than 12 attacks against tourists since last summer. Targets included tour buses, Nile cruise vessels and a French traveler struck in the head with a metal pipe outside a Cairo museum. (If I were in Egypt this week, I’d be taking taxis, not tour buses.)

Most of the incidents occurred in southern Egypt, where Islamic fundamentalism is strongest. Not all Americans travel there, but the temples of Luxor do draw many. Murphy reports that European travel agents have been getting anonymous letters warning that they should send no one to Egypt.

Several boosters of Egypt described the attacks to me as “isolated incidents.” A safe falling out of a skyscraper window is an isolated incident. This was an organized campaign by a small, violent element, and it seems to be ongoing.

Certainly, the authorities are trying hard to halt it. Egyptian officials have launched an anti-terrorism publicity campaign, increased police presence in popular tourist areas and arrested a reported 1,300 suspects in search of extremists in Cairo and elsewhere.

But the effect of the attacks shows clearly in tourism statistics. In December, Egypt tallied 12,634 American visitors, some 4,000 fewer than the month before. January’s numbers have not yet been compiled, but Samir Khalil says he expects a drop of “not less than 15%” from the same period a year ago. Others have estimated drops as great as 40%, and one estimate puts the country’s lost tourist revenues at more than $700 million.

The official, and unofficial, lines: Egyptian Minister of Tourism and Civil Aviation Soultan Fouad plans to tour the United States in April, to encourage potential travelers. Meanwhile, at the Egypt Tourism Office in Los Angeles (8383 Wilshire Blvd., Suite 215, Los Angeles 90211; telephone 213-653-8815), a representative tells callers that “the Egyptian government is doing everything it can for tourists,” and refers them to the U.S. State Department’s travel information number (202-647-5225).

The U.S. State Department, which recommends that Americans defer all travel to many troubled countries, voices less alarm in its recording on Egypt. The recording notes that since May, 1992, parts of Egypt have been affected by extremist violence and threats against tourists. Callers also hear that on Jan. 13, officials urged American travelers in the Middle East to “exercise caution” because of ongoing tensions among Iraq, the U.S. and neighboring countries.

Which leaves travel agents, tour operators and the traveling public with a judgment call.

Norman Terry, a travel agent for 34 years who heads the Carlson Travel Network office in Glendale, says that when someone asks about travel to Egypt, “we present the facts of life . . . . There is a potential problem with terrorism. You’ve got to be honest with people.”

Frank De Lelys, owner of Superior Travel in Century City, estimates that his office sends 20-30 people yearly to Egypt, and says the country’s troubles have not led him to change his positive advice to travelers about the place.

“To take that out on a country and its tourism, which is vital to Egypt, is just plain stupid,” says De Lelys. “I happen to be one of those people who believes in destiny, anyway.”

Klaus Billep of Universal Travel System offers a similar view: “Any time you go to a foreign country, there’s is a possibility that you’ll be at the wrong time at the wrong place. Two years ago I was in Northern Ireland in Belfast, and I was sitting in the tourism minister’s home. On CNN, they reported the 202nd murder of the year in Washington, D.C. He says, ‘Look, what’s gonna happen if I send someone from Northern Ireland to Washington, D.C?’ It’s all relative.”