Wave of Special Elections Could Become a Flood : Legislature: Term limits and district boundary changes lead to a batch of vacancies. The cost to local governments is $1.3 million and rising.

In the first wave of what could be a flood of special elections for seats in the Legislature, four primaries will be held on March 2 to fill vacancies created by term limits, the redrawing of district lines and old-fashioned political survival.

The price tag on the elections for three vacancies in the state Senate and one in the Assembly totals about $1.3 million, a cost borne by local taxpayers that will rise as additional vacancies occur.

Republican and Democratic election tacticians privately predict that only one of the four races--for a Senate seat in Orange County--is likely to produce a clear-cut winner. In races without a majority winner, the process will continue as the top vote-getters compete in runoff elections on April 27.

These contests may be merely the first of a large number of legislative special elections--primaries and runoffs--resulting from voter approval of term limits in 1990 and the reapportionment of districts by the state Supreme Court last year.

“In a worst possible scenario, and this is highly speculative, we have identified as many as 17 possible (legislative) vacancies that could generate as many as 34 elections this year and early next year, if they all went to a runoff,” said Melissa Warren, spokeswoman for Secretary of State March Fong Eu.

The full impact of term limits will be felt first in the Assembly by 1996 and in the Senate two years later when no incumbents elected in 1990 will remain. Reapportionment meanwhile has dimmed other prospects for political advancement.

As a result, some members have quit as they have found more secure employment elsewhere. Others grope for political survival by leapfrogging to safer legislative districts or are examining the prospects of running for higher offices. Special elections become necessary to fill out unexpired terms as incumbents leave office.

The March 2 vote is not expected to shift power in Sacramento, where Democrats dominate both houses, and even a GOP sweep would not tip the scales. The victor in a special primary election for the Legislature must get at least 50% of the votes plus one. If no one wins outright, it must go to a runoff.

At issue are these primary races:

* Senate District 2: Veteran Sen. Barry Keene resigned this Northern California seat in December, conceding that looming term limits played a role in his early exit. Democratic Sen. Mike Thompson moved his official residence from the Sonoma Valley wine country to Vallejo on San Francisco Bay to run for the remaining two years of Keene’s term. Thompson’s chief opponent in the economically and socially diverse coastal district that reaches to the Oregon line is Margie Handley, a wealthy business executive who previously had lost to Keene. One other Democrat and two other Republicans are also running. This reapportioned district will heavily favor Democrats in the 1994 elections.

* Senate District 16: Eleven candidates are competing to represent this area, which stretches from Kings and Kern counties in the San Joaquin Valley into Pasadena, Altadena and San Bernardino County. Assemblyman Jim Costa of Hanford is considered the Democratic front-runner against such Republicans as former Assemblyman Phil Wyman of Tehachapi and Kevin McDermott, a Bakersfield city councilman. They are running to complete the remaining two-year term of Sen. Don Rogers (R-Bakersfield), who vacated Senate District 16 to successfully run for a safe GOP seat in a neighboring district. A lawsuit is pending before the U.S. 9th Circuit Court of Appeals demanding that the election for Rogers’ old seat be held within the boundaries of the newly reapportioned district, which will become heavily Democratic in 1994.

* Senate District 32: This Orange County seat became vacant last year when voters promoted Republican Ed Royce to Congress. Many observers regard this primary as a slam dunk for wealthy manufacturer Rob Hurtt of Garden Grove, the only Republican in the race. Four Democrats also are running in this traditionally safe GOP district. In 1994, however, it is expected to swing slightly toward Democratic registration, 46.3% to 42.1%, because of reapportionment.

* Assembly District 31: Assemblyman Bruce Bronzan (D-Fresno) won reelection to this San Joaquin Valley seat last year. Then he resigned for a higher-paying job at the University of California, asserting that his legislative career would be short-circuited by term limits. Four contenders are running to succeed him, including Democrat Cruz Bustamante, a former Bronzan aide, and Republican Doug Vagim, a Fresno County supervisor. The district is heavily Democratic.

Under state law, the estimated $1.3-million cost of the March 2 legislative primaries will be picked up by local taxpayers. But financially struggling counties have appealed to the Legislature to shift the cost of legislative special elections to the state. They argue that the expected wave of such elections could overwhelm local budgets and that the cost is one that should be paid by taxpayers statewide.

A bill by Assemblyman Ross Johnson (R-La Habra) that would transfer the burden to the state has been approved unanimously by the Assembly and will be considered next month by the Senate. But the proposal is opposed by Gov. Pete Wilson’s budget writers on grounds that the hard-pressed state government cannot absorb the additional costs either.

Warren, spokeswoman for the secretary of state, said the estimate of as many as 17 legislative vacancies was based on who is running for other offices, as well as informed speculation. For example, she said, Eu’s staff took into consideration the need for a special election in the Assembly if Assemblyman Richard Katz (D-Panorama City) should win his campaign to become mayor of Los Angeles.