THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA JOB MARKET: WHERE THE JOBS ARE : FINDING WORK : The Clinton Effect : Big Changes, Perhaps, in the Labor Market
It was hardly an accident that Bill Clinton paid a high-profile visit to a group of construction workers at a Washington housing site just one day before the unveiling of his long-awaited economic plan. It was a photo opportunity with a message: The Clinton Administration is big on bricks and mortar.
“Infrastructure spending” was, after all, one of Clinton’s favorite catch phrases during the presidential campaign. He always said we needed more of it. Now, his economic plan threatens to deliver.
“It is clear that one of the big winners is construction, especially heavy construction for large projects,” notes economist David Wyss of DRI-McGraw Hill, a consulting firm in Lexington, Mass.
Public works spending dovetails with Clinton’s short-term objective of creating as many jobs as possible in the coming months in order to galvanize the economy. Clinton and his advisers stress that, if the recovery were following traditional rules, 3 million more jobs would have been generated by now.
“This has been a jobless recovery,” observes Laura D’Andrea Tyson, chair of Clinton’s Council of Economic Advisers.
The stimulus initiative is designed to create up to 500,000 full and part-time jobs over the coming year, primarily through increased funding on an emergency basis on a wide array of public works projects.
Meanwhile, Clinton’s longer-term “investment” agenda, which calls for a $160 billion increase in funding for a range of domestic initiatives over four years, is far more ambitious than his 1993 stimulus plan, and is bound to create far more jobs; Clinton promises 8.5 million to 9 million by the end of 1996.
The long-term agenda calls for the creation of a new, $3-billion national service corps, coupled with new youth apprenticeship and worker training programs, all of which seem destined to require hundreds if not thousands of teachers, counselors, administrators.
One of the biggest areas affected by Clinton’s agenda will likely be health care. In Clinton’s economic agenda, he calls for a dramatic increase in funding for childhood immunization, for nutrition programs for pregnant women, and for other early health and welfare intervention programs such as Head Start preschool education. Those initiatives are certain to increase government payrolls for counselors and medical assistants who can perform simple health-related tasks.
But Clinton’s health care reforms could mean radical change for doctors, nurses and medical technicians. Fees for doctors and hospitals seem certain to be restricted, reducing incomes for physicians and perhaps resulting in fewer job opportunities at the large corporations that now dominate hospital and health care delivery. His promise to cut costs by consolidating the health insurance industry might also mean a bleak outlook for insurance managers and administrators.
If price controls can be imposed on the drug industry, as Clinton has suggested, that could lead to less hiring in the industry.
Similarly, Clinton’s policies have broad implications for workers in industries that rely heavily on data processing.
For instance, the Administration plans a national data highway to connect the nation’s major computer networks.
The idea, a favorite of Vice President Al Gore, would be to create a computer system version of the interstate highway network, thus dramatically accelerating the speed at which computers can interact with one another.
That would, of course, have implications for computer retailers, telecommunications workers, and computer-dependent industries such as defense and aerospace. The government’s national laboratories, meanwhile, would see an expansion of funding for non-defense research, which could complement the increase in computer-related technology employment.
If Clinton succeeds in bringing down long-term interest rates, that could help the housing industry. And higher taxes would lower the after-tax cost of homes.
As for financial services workers, the prospect of higher income taxes has already sparked a municipal-bond rally--and a flurry of new muni bond offerings. And any increase in taxes should mean more work for accountants, lawyers and tax preparers.
Clinton’s agenda should also affect the outlook for experts in the nation’s air traffic control network, mass-transit and rail technology. Clinton is considering lifting the federal ban on rehiring air traffic controllers fired by President Reagan during an illegal strike.
Trouble in Technology Shrinking defense budgets are continuing to reduce employment in the state’s high technology industries. Hardest hit over the past five years have been companies making aircraft and parts, search and navigation equipment, guided missiles and spacecraft. Source: State of California / Employment Development Dept.
