U.S. Watching for Russian Military Moves

Pentagon intelligence analysts pored over fragments of information and reviewed reports from Russia on Monday in an effort to unravel one of the central mysteries of that country’s constitutional crisis: What will the Russian military do?

Pentagon officials are searching the airwaves and positioning U.S. satellites to look for telltale signs that the Russian military will take the potentially decisive step of choosing sides.

They are listening for sudden surges in communications among Russian military units and looking for irregular movements--especially those in and around Moscow--not only by regular ground forces but by a handful of elite paramilitary units that could be rallied by President Boris N. Yeltsin or his nemesis, Ruslan I. Khasbulatov, Speaker of Parliament.

So far, U.S. analysts have found the military is heeding the pleas of Russian Defense Minister Pavel S. Grachev to stay out of politics and has remained hunkered down in its garrisons across Russia. Analysts said Monday that they are not seeing the kind of urgent meetings among senior officers that preceded military intrusions into other political crises.

American leaders and intelligence analysts are more familiar with the central players in the Russian forces today because they have participated in military exchanges with increasing frequency since the end of the Cold War. At the same time, the visits have exposed Russian military commanders more directly to Western-style relations between military and elected officials.

Several U.S. military leaders expressed hope that such exposure will help their Russian counterparts resist the temptation to intervene.

Indeed, one of the key figures in the current Russian drama, Col. Gen. V. M. Semenov, commander of Russia’s ground forces, recently returned from a lengthy U.S. visit in which he met with Defense Secretary Les Aspin and Gen. Colin L. Powell, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. During the visit, Pentagon officials placed special emphasis on explaining the functions of the military in a democracy.

Many experts argued that Yeltsin does not appear likely to seek military intervention on his behalf, nor does military action seem consistent with his desire for democratic reforms. For those reasons, any military involvement probably would be on behalf of Yeltsin’s opponents, they said.

Yet at this point, senior Russian military leaders favor Yeltsin, said Jeremy R. Azrael, a Russian affairs analyst for the Santa Monica-based think tank, RAND Corp. They see him as the key to order and eventual improvement of conditions in the armed forces. Since the breakup of the Soviet Union at the end of 1991, the military has suffered from low morale, ethnic strife and dramatically reduced budgets. Many officers and enlistees have lived in virtual poverty.

But Ilana Kass, an expert on the Russian armed forces at the National War College, cautioned that senior military leaders like Defense Minister Grachev may not have unquestioned control over the forces. Small, breakaway units may choose to intervene, touching off reactions that would draw in larger units, Kass said.

“It is less than clear that these leaders could deliver the military as an institution,” said Kass. “Having been really beaten, demoralized and fragmented over the last few years, it’s not clear that the military’s going to follow any orders. Loyalty has been moving down to small units since the war in Afghanistan. Who are they going to listen to? Grachev or the colonel they have come to know and trust?”

To shore up his military support, Yeltsin has courted armed forces leaders in recent weeks, promising to triple their salaries and assuring them that his government remains attentive to their concerns. But with his opponents also bidding for military support, the effect of those promises is uncertain.

As U.S. analysts seek clues to the Russian military’s intentions, they also will listen in on such open sources as the radio network that broadcasts news and information to the far-flung armed forces. During the August, 1991, coup attempt in the Soviet Union, Vice President Alexander V. Rutskoi, then an influential and highly decorated air force officer, went on the armed forces radio network and exhorted the military to stand behind then-President Mikhail S. Gorbachev in his struggle to retain power.

Today, Rutskoi is opposing Yeltsin’s moves to consolidate his power. American analysts are watching closely for any communications between Rutskoi and the military.