Business Leaders Say Economy Is Looking Up : Survey: Responding to a semiannual questionnaire, nearly 60% of companies predict an increase in sales this year.

Nearly 60% of Ventura County business leaders are predicting their sales will increase in 1993, exhibiting a newfound optimism that the county’s economy may soon turn around, a new survey shows.

“Folks were kind of ambivalent about 1992, but they think that 1993 looks pretty good,” said Richard Ball, executive vice president of Ventura County National Bank, which conducts the survey twice a year. “Everybody’s been looking for this recovery for so long that they feel it’s got to be here.”

Unlike previous surveys conducted by the bank during the recession, a far greater percentage of business leaders are positive about future sales than those who continue to hold negative views.

A year ago, barely 50% of business leaders believed their sales would increase while nearly 24% thought they would fall. Now, 59.8% hold positive views on their sales and 13% predict a decline this year. The others think sales will remain the same.

And for the first time in three years, more company leaders are predicting upward trends in sales, profits, inventory, employment and every other financial measure than those with an overall pessimistic outlook, Ball said.

Every six months, the bank sends out 5,000 questionnaires to business leaders across the county and this time tabulated 573 voluntary responses. The survey results are not statistically accurate, but represent the only countywide measure of business attitudes.

Stacy Rogers, president of the Ventura County Economic Development Assn., said he was encouraged by the survey’s findings but could not independently confirm the trend.

“People are talking about there being a turn,” Rogers said. “I hope the report is right. But with what I know right now, I couldn’t prove it. People are still living in the problem right now.”

Jim Word, manager of J.C. Penney in Buenaventura Mall, said his store’s sales activity is coming back--slowly.

“We’re seeing some increases and we’re expecting it to be a little better than last year,” Word said. “Frankly, not a lot better. There’s certainly no big rebound. I think it probably looks like it’s going to be pretty gradual. But it does look better than it did a year ago.”

Larri Jones, vice president and county manager for Chicago Title, said he has seen strong signs of recovery.

“The resale market (for homes) has taken off,” Jones said. “It’s the best that I’ve seen it in a couple of years. We’ve got an economy here that’s kicking.”

But it’s still not kicking for everyone.

Stephen Simms, controller of Hammer-Heuson Associates in Ventura, said the firm expects to do only about as well in 1993 at leasing commercial and residential real estate as it did in 1992.

“Our company tends to be a lagging indicator of the economy,” Simms said. “We lease office space, and we find out after the fact that the economy is expanding. We haven’t seen the pickup, but we’re hoping that we’re going to.”

The most recent sales tax figures calculated by the state Board of Equalization indicate that the optimism indicated by survey respondents may be justified.

Showing an overall trend of improved sales, seven of the county’s 10 cities reported more taxable sales in the first nine months of 1992 than during the same period in 1991, records show.

Only Simi Valley, Ventura and Fillmore reported declines in sales taxes, with Thousand Oaks, Oxnard and Santa Paula reporting significant gains. Camarillo, Moorpark, Ojai and Port Hueneme also reported more modest gains in taxable sales.