Opposition Casts a Shadow Over Plan to End Haiti’s Crisis : Diplomacy: The proposal includes $1 billion in aid and threat of U.S. military intervention. It draws objections from business elite, radicals.

A delicately contrived plan including $1 billion in financial aid and the lightly veiled threat of U.S. military intervention has created the most serious possibility for ending the 19-month crisis that has pushed Haiti into political and economic devastation.

But while diplomats and key Haitian figures insist that talks with Haiti’s ruling military and the man they ousted in September, 1991, in a bloody coup, President Jean-Bertrand Aristide, are on the edge of success, developments this week have cast a pall of doubt over the effort.

As recently as last weekend, all the elements were in place, according to diplomats here, in Washington and at the United Nations.

But opposition by some of Haiti’s business elite on one side and radical forces supposedly allied with Aristide on the other, as well as signs of serious second thoughts among the military leadership, has eroded the chances of a settlement, according to sources involved in the talks.

“We are in deep trouble,” said one Haitian who would play a crucial role in carrying out any agreement. “The army may be reneging and there are signs the high command may not be able to control the base,” the army’s rank and file.

“It is the same attitude that has ruined every other effort” to bring back Aristide, the country’s only democratically elected president, another Haitian political expert said. “We are willing to risk total ruin rather than give up anything to the other side. Besides, neither side truly accepts that Washington is serious about a true compromise.”

Key factors of the potential pact included Aristide’s return to Haiti within two to three months; a five-year, $1-billion aid program largely supplied by the United States and guarantees that the radical, populist president would accept a moderate governing Cabinet and not seek to punish the military and its wealthy civilian allies.

In turn, the military high command, including strongman Lt. Gen. Raoul Cedras and the powerful Port-au-Prince chief of police, Col. Michel-Joseph Francois, would resign and in due course leave the country.

A force of international observers operated jointly by the United Nations and the Organization of American States would be increased from 150 now to 500, to guarantee the personal safety of all sides.

Compliance with the plan would mean a huge aid program, including at least $50 million in the first year to retrain and upgrade the 7,000-member army, but failing that, the bitterly divided parties were told they are faced with possible U.S. military intervention. Rumors were even spread that a U.S. naval force would sail into Port-au-Prince harbor as a sign of Washington’s serious intent.

U.N. envoy Dante Caputo, a former Argentine foreign minister and special aide to U.N. Secretary General Boutros Boutros-Ghali, was scheduled to arrive here today to announce the completed settlement.

However, Caputo, who spent the weekend trying to get final approval from Aristide, suddenly called off his trip, saying he will not arrive until Monday at the earliest.

Diplomats said the delay was not a sign of distress. They said Caputo has been unable to work out the accord’s details because Washington officials have not been able to focus on it rather than the U.S.-Russian summit meeting in Vancouver, Canada, and other international issues.

In addition, the diplomats said, a meeting about aid between U.S. officials and representatives of international development organizations--the U.N. Development Program, the International Monetary Fund and the Inter-American Development Bank--won’t be completed until next Wednesday, leaving Caputo without all the information that he needs when he arrives here.

They also said Caputo was concerned because of the distractions of Holy Week, Good Friday and Easter.

“He wants the announcement and implementation to go very quickly and without any loose ends,” one international official said. “He was afraid that if he came here and ran into delays caused by Holy Week, it would give the wrong signal that things were not complete.”

However, he and other sources were unable to explain why the sudden postponement of Caputo’s trip would not also be interpreted as a signal of problems.

At a New York news conference Tuesday, Caputo said he hopes to be presenting a detailed timetable for the plan’s implementation when he comes to Haiti next week. In answer to a question, he indicated that amnesty for the coup leaders was a sticking point.

Asked about his chances for sucess, Caputo said he could only say that the intentions of the negotiators have been made absolutely clear.

“Our cards are on the table. The army and the de facto regime know we are not ready to accept any dilatory tactics for the resolution of the crisis,” he said. “What are we going to find ahead of us? A wall, or a door?”

Regardless of signals, a major obstacle, according to various sources, is the vacillation of the military leadership.

“The army is falling apart,” one Haitian source said. “Francois has gone off the deep end and Cedras is completely demoralized.”

Cedras, who was persuaded to go along with the Caputo program by promises of amnesty and guarantees of safety for himself and his family, was described as near hysterical in his indecision, as well as under pressure from his wife and some business allies to renege.

Police Chief Francois, who has built a power base among some rank-and-file police and military as well as in the private sector through the ruthless and corrupt use of his office, is said by sources to be “in a mystic state of suspended animation.”

Francois “won’t do anything without consulting with his voodoo priest,” an important Haitian said.

A more substantial sign of possible opposition by Cedras came late last week when he and a key aide, Gen. Philippe Biambi, conspired to force the resignation of Col. Marc Charles as head of the army’s recruitment and training operation.

Charles was considered one of the more professional military leaders and several important Haitians interpret his removal as an effort by Cedras and his allies to hold on to power.

Another negative indication over the weekend were reports of near-mutiny by lower-ranking officers and enlisted men.

“The base is afraid that Cedras is selling them out,” said a security expert with contacts in the military rank and file. “They have been told over and over again that Aristide is the devil and that they and their families will be killed if he returns. . . . What has to happen is a believable guarantee of safety.”

The suspicion is strong among some diplomats and other sources that Cedras and Francois are playing on this fear to strengthen their negotiating position.

Another detail remaining for Caputo to resolve is what the political arrangement would be under Aristide. Sources say Aristide still has not settled on a prime minister and a Cabinet acceptable to the international community and the various competing interests in Haiti.

“I’m not certain Caputo got what he needed from Aristide last weekend,” another Haitian political expert said. “It’s up to the Americans to convince him, and they don’t seem to have focused on that, at least to Caputo’s satisfaction.”

Still, said one of the most influential Haitian sources, “Washington is on to something. They just can’t let go. They have to follow through and right now.”