TIMES ORANGE COUNTY POLL : Residents Favor Not Closing El Toro Base

In stark disagreement with local congressmen who have accepted the eventual closing of the El Toro Marine Corps Air Station, three out of five Orange County residents oppose plans to shut down the military base, according to a new Times Orange County Poll.

And 73%--including a majority of those who favor closing the base--believe the closure would have a “bad effect” on the local economy, which they believe is worsening.

Support for maintaining the military installation was strong across the board, with Democrats and Republicans equally in favor of keeping the 50-year-old U.S. Marine base open. Only a third of residents favored closing the air station.

And there was no consensus among county residents on how the 4,700-acre site should be used if the base ceases operations. But 54% disapproved when specifically asked whether the facility should be converted into an international airport--a proposal that has been advanced by several county groups.

The Times Orange County Poll, conducted by Mark Baldassare & Associates, contacted 600 Orange County residents by telephone last weekend. They were asked a variety of questions related to the recession, cuts in defense spending and the future of the El Toro base.

In fiscally conservative Orange County, where almost a third of the voters polled a year ago believed that then-President Bush’s defense budget cuts did not go far enough, the latest results show that opinions have shifted dramatically as the issue has affected the area.

Last year, only 15% thought Bush’s proposed cuts were “too much.” Now, with one of their local bases on the Clinton Administration’s “hit list,” 43% of Orange County residents believe the budget reductions are too deep, while 40% said the defense cutbacks are “about right.”

“The reality of military cuts is now hitting home in Southern California,” Baldassare said. “People are becoming nervous about the fact that military budget cuts are affecting the jobs outlook at a time when Southern Californians are facing increasing unemployment.”

Local officials have estimated that El Toro’s closure would eliminate 1,562 civilian and 4,738 military jobs, and cost the area’s economy $200 million to $500 million annually. This would be in addition to the previously planned closing in 1997 of the Tustin Marine Corps Air Station. The total economic loss from the twin shutdowns would be $1 billion a year, some economists estimate.

In March, the state unemployment rate fell from 9.8% to 9.4%, still well above the national average of 7%. Joblessness in Orange County rose in February from 6.4% to 6.5% in the worst recession to hit California since World War II.

Support for keeping the base open was strongest among women, residents with annual household incomes of less than $50,000, and those living in North County areas that are less susceptible to noise and air pollution from the base.

Already overwhelmed by the lingering economic recession, California’s top political leaders have angrily protested the proposed base closings because nine of the 35 major military bases involved nationwide are in California.

But while the California congressional delegation has focused on the “disproportionate” impact the cuts would have on the state economy, Orange County representatives have opted not to fight for the El Toro base.

Instead, the battle is being haphazardly waged by the County Board of Supervisors, which is worried about the economic impact, and local citizen groups that fear that the base closure will lead to the development of a commercial airport.

Given the bleak economic outlook, Baldassare said, residents are lining up against the base closure because no good alternative use for the land has been proposed.

Ralph Barry of Tustin fervently supports keeping the base open--partly because its removal would diminish the country’s military might, but primarily because he believes the closure might actually cost taxpayers more money.

“To me, it would be less of a cost to maintain it as it is than it would be to close it down, clean up all the toxic waste that’s probably been there for years, and then try to convert it to some other use that politicians will be fighting over for the next 10 years,” said Barry, a registered Republican.

Dorthe Gecenok, a Democrat who lives in the Leisure World community near the base, said her initial opposition to closing the facility had less to do with concerns about the nation’s military preparedness than with what would take its place.

“Nobody can be sure what (the land) is going to be used for,” Gecenok said. “What we are afraid of is (that) if they leave, will a commercial airport come in?”

In anticipation of a final decision on the base--which will not be announced until late summer--the Orange County Transportation Authority has ordered a study of the impact the closing would have on transportation. It will also address whether the air station with its enormous runways should become an airport or a multipurpose transit facility.

With little public discussion so far on the options, those surveyed had no clear-cut preference on how to use the land. When asked to state their choices on a list of possibilities, the poll showed that 22% favored an industrial-commercial zone, 21% preferred an international airport, 16% wanted residential development and 14% preferred a public transit center.

But in a separate follow-up question on whether they favored an international airport, opposition to the idea solidified, with those against it outnumbering those in favor by 54% to 39%.

Some of those who supported shutting down the base cited national economic concerns as the reason. Among them was Michael Keane, a registered Republican from Orange who believes the site can create economic growth if the right idea comes along.

What is bothersome, he said, is that he has yet to see President Clinton deliver on his promise to retrain defense industry workers who will be displaced by the budget cutbacks.

“Money that’s going to be (saved by the closing) should go to retrain the people who are going to be affected by this,” Keane said.

Julie Lowes of Seal Beach, a registered Independent whose family gets its income from the real estate industry, is undecided about what should be done with the base.

While its elimination would mean more layoffs and fewer people buying homes, she hopes the closure would ultimately help reduce the federal budget deficit and improve the national economy.

“It’s going to mean more loss of jobs for Southern Californians, but in order for us to bring the (federal budget) deficit down, we need to cut back,” she said.

Base Closure Opposed

By a 2-to-1 margin, Orange County residents oppose closing the El Toro Marine air station. Majorities in all groups favor keeping the base open, but there are some differences--most notably by gender and household income.

Close Keep the Don’t base base open know TOTAL 33% 60% 7% Men 40 55 5 Women 25 64 11 Less than $50,000 income 27 66 7 More than $50,000 40 52 8 North county 30 62 8 South county 40 53 7

No Base Consensus

If the base is closed, there is no clear agreement on what to do with the base. Among the suggestions were such things as a golf course, movie studio, nature preserve and armed forces museum. Industrial-commercial zone: 22% International airport: 21% Residential development: 16% Public transit center: 14% Jail: 7% Park: 4% School: 1% Other: 2% Don’t know: 13% Source: Times Orange County Poll

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Orange County Poll was conducted by Mark Baldassare & Associates. The telephone survey of 600 Orange County adult residents was conducted from April 1 through 4 on weekday nights and weekend days. A computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers was used. The margin of error for the total sample is plus or minus 4% at the 95% confidence level. That means it is 95% certain the results are within 4 percentage points of what they would be if every Orange County adult resident were interviewed.