Disney Resort Job Estimate Is Lower in Second Report

The proposed Disneyland Resort would create about 650 fewer jobs than was previously predicted in economic forecasts, according to a housing study prepared for the city of Anaheim.

And only about four out of 10 jobs would be full time, with the rest either part time or seasonal. Most would be low-wage, entry-level positions.

The study, buried deep within five volumes of environmental documents, could become one of the issues raised when public hearings begin April 28 on how the $3-billion resort is expected to impact the city.

City and Walt Disney Co. officials said the difference in the number of jobs simply reflects conclusions by two different consulting firms and will have a minor impact on the economic benefits of the project.

Currently, Disney is weighing whether or not it is feasible to build a mega-resort in the present-day parking lot of Disneyland. It would include an internationally themed amusement park called Westcot, similar to Epcot Center in Florida, and three hotels modeled after California landmarks. The buildings would be nestled amid lakes and a lush “Garden District.”

The job estimates, produced by independent consultants based on information supplied by Disney, highlight the conflicts that still must be addressed in passing regulatory muster and winning public support.

The differing job figures show up in two reports--in an economic analysis prepared for Disney two years ago and in a housing demand analysis that is part of the project’s environmental impact review, released in November. Although the housing figures are newer, Disney still cites the economic analysis of jobs when seeking to woo support from local groups.

Support has been considered crucial given that hundreds of millions of dollars--possibly as much as a billion dollars--in public financing is being sought.

The economic study, prepared by the Los Angeles firm of Kotin, Regan & Mouchly, showed “permanent” creation of “15,700 direct jobs” in Anaheim. But pressed about the figures last week, Disney officials said only 12,500 of those “direct jobs” would be inside its theme park and hotel complex. The other 3,200 jobs would come from other companies that are expected to build hotel rooms or stores outside the park’s gates.

Those hiring figures, however, differ from those in the housing study. The housing report, prepared by Hamilton, Rabinovitz & Alschuler in Los Angeles, predicts that 11,848--not 12,500--jobs would be created in the theme park. That is 652 fewer jobs.

Kerry Hunnewell, the Westcot project director for Disney, said the discrepancy is meager--a mere 5% when measured against the huge scope of the project. “This is not an exact science,” he said of the estimates. Both studies are valid, he added.

Anaheim Deputy City Manager Tom Wood, who is analyzing the expansion project for the city, said he, too, is unworried by the discrepancy.

“They are projections, and projections by nature vary slightly,” he said. “At this stage in the game, we’re not going to be concerned about a slight variation in the numbers. . . . This is a substantial project that will have a tremendous financial impact.”

Even though the discrepancy is discounted by Disney officials as small, it represents a significant employment loss when compared to other businesses in the county. For example, the Koll Co., a $500-million real estate development firm based in Irvine, has 425 employees in Orange County. The Hyatt Regency Irvine has about 450 workers.

Unlike the Disney economic impact report, the housing study takes a closer look at the kind of jobs that would be found at the resort, based on a profile of the present Disneyland work force.

“Most of the employment opportunities at the project would be part time or casual/temporary with entry-level skill requirements,” the housing report states. Because of heavy tourism in the summers and holiday season, Disneyland has traditionally depended on legions of seasonal workers that can increase the work force by 50%--up to 12,000 from a base employment of about 8,000.

As a result, only about a third of the new hires will be the primary breadwinners in their households, according to the housing study. The rest will bring in a second income or, in the case of high school and college students, a third.

Disney expects to have no trouble finding entry-level workers. “It is estimated that the potential labor supply for such workers far exceeds the likely demand for additional labor generated by the project,” the housing report states.

These are not the kinds of high-paying jobs that entice workers to move to be closer to their jobs. The housing report predicts that only 112 of the 15,163 Disneyland Resort employees in the year 2010 will move closer to the park in order to accept the position. Of those, only 17 will move into the city of Anaheim.

Curtis Stricker, president of an Anaheim homeowner group that has been raising pointed questions about Disney’s expansion plans and its role in the city, disputes the housing need.

“They say they will create thousands of jobs, most of which will be part time (at minimum wage) and without benefits. Low-paying jobs need low-cost housing,” Stricker wrote in the association newsletter this month.

Most of the jobs at the new theme park and hotel complex would be entry level, Hunnewell acknowledges, but they would be meaningful to the housewives, senior citizens, students and others who take them. Disney tends to promote from within, and some of the highest-ranking executives in the company once had low-wage jobs at Disneyland.

“At Disney, there is a lot of upward mobility,” said Hunnewell, whose official title is vice president of the Disney Development Co. “They start out as ride operators and ticket takers.”

Ed Arnold, the KTLA Channel 5 sportscaster who chairs a support group for the project called Westcot 2000, said everyone starts at the bottom, and the project could provide a ready supply of entry-level positions that could help people start their economic climb.

Deputy City Manager Wood said he believes that Disney has been forthright about the kinds of jobs a new resort would bring.

He added that the city will soon release its own independent economic study of the project. That study addresses the direct amount of tax revenues that the expansion project will generate and not the number of jobs it will create.

“Disney’s projections seem to be right on target with ours,” Wood said.