LOCAL ELECTIONS / L.A. CITY COUNCIL : 3 Incumbents Face Prospect of Runoff Races

In the glacially evolving Los Angeles City Council--where incumbents are thrown out about as often as U.S. Presidents--a significant meltdown may be in the works.

Three City Council members face unusually well-financed and substantial fields in next Tuesday’s primary election--a stark contrast to the token opposition that often confronts incumbents.

Council members Joan Milke Flores, Joy Picus and Rita Walters face such serious opposition that even their own consultants say they almost certainly will not score outright victories in the April 20 primary. That would force them into June 8 runoffs with their top foes.

But old hands at City Hall say that before pundits get carried away prognosticating change, they should study a little history. Only two challengers have defeated incumbents in the last 16 years--Michael Woo beat Councilwoman Peggy Stevenson to take over a Hollywood-area district in 1985, and Ruth Galanter ousted Council President Pat Russell from a mostly Westside district in 1987.

“It used to be we would change maybe one council person per election,” said Council President John Ferraro, a 27-year incumbent. “There is a possibility of five this time . . . but it’s still a long shot.”

In all, eight council seats are at stake next week, and five of the races have been lively. The Flores, Picus and Walters contests carry the possibility of change. Two other races guarantee it: The 7th District seat in the San Fernando Valley is open because of the retirement and mayoral candidacy of Ernani Bernardi, and the 13th District seat west of downtown has been left open by another mayoral hopeful, Michael Woo.

In the three other races--in districts represented by council members Marvin Braude, Mike Hernandez and Zev Yaroslavsky--the status quo seems unlikely to be upset by poorly funded challengers.

But a grudge-match atmosphere prevails in the 9th District of Central and South Los Angeles, where Walters faces off with Bob Gay, a onetime council aide she defeated by 76 votes two years ago. A similar spirit pervades the contest in the San Fernando Valley’s 3rd District, where onetime deputy Laura Chick wants to oust her former boss, Picus, and serious campaigns are being mounted by two other former Picus allies, homeowner activist Robert Gross and LAPD Sgt. Dennis Zine.

“It’s a different kind of year, that’s for sure,” said Flores, 56, who is seeking her fourth term. “People are examining the candidates very closely.”

In the 9th District, political observers say that Walters has failed to cultivate solid backing from either the downtown power elite or the impoverished South-Central neighborhoods that form the district.

Walters took office in 1991 after long-time Councilman Gilbert Lindsay died. In that election she barely squeezed by Gay, Lindsay’s right-hand man of 16 years.

Now seeking her first full term, she is described by supporters as a highly principled reformer whose focus is civil rights. But many City Hall officials depict her as slow to establish herself and difficult to work with.

In a district that was once renowned as a fount of campaign dollars, Walters, 62, has also had trouble collecting funds. She has brought in $80,485, less than one-third the amount she had raised in 1991. Gay, 40, is also down substantially from his earlier campaign, with just under $58,000. The surprise factor has been the candidacy of newcomer Donald Lumpkin, a businessman who has put $105,800 into the race, about half of it in loans to himself.

With money, though, has come controversy. City Ethics Commission officials say Lumpkin did not properly notify them that he would use his own funds. The dispute is yet to be resolved.

As Gay and Lumpkin walked through the district this week, a common refrain among voters was that they have seldom seen a politician in their downtrodden neighborhoods.

But Gay, 40, and Lumpkin, 42, are appealing for change in an African-American community that has shown little tendency for rejecting incumbents.

Walters has eschewed walking door-to-door, instead playing up her role as incumbent, calling meetings with constituents, and sending voters mailers that tout her Establishment endorsements, including Mayor Tom Bradley, Rep. Julian Dixon (D-Los Angeles) and Assemblywoman Marguerite Archie-Hudson (D-Los Angeles).

In the western San Fernando Valley’s 3rd District, Picus has also been out-walked by her five opponents and overwhelmed by their street signs. She has fallen back on the ceremonial duties of her office--from an American Legion banquet to youth sports events and Sunday church visits--to meet voters.

But Picus, 62, has repelled serious challenges before and said she is not concerned this time.

One reason that political observers say Picus might be in trouble this time is that she did not overtake her opponents’ fund-raising totals until late in the campaign. When Picus’ contributions totaled $165,000, for example, Chick and Zine together had brought in $175,000, and collectively they represent a significant challenge.

Her other opponents are homeowner activist Robert Gross, businessman Charles Nixon III and former hotdog vendor Mort Diamond.

Picus has been a sharply pro-San Fernando Valley voice on the City Council, advocating a separate planning commission for the area and fighting a redistricting plan that eliminated one of the two all-Valley seats on the school board.

But her opponents say that Picus, who lost both of those fights, is ineffective.

Gross criticized Picus’ role in the long-running fight to block the Warner Ridge development.

The councilwoman persuaded the City Council to block the Woodland Hills office complex, only to have the developer file a $100-million lawsuit that led to several courtroom setbacks. A chastened City Council then accepted a hardly scaled-down project on the property.

Gross said Picus should have grabbed homeowners and the developer “by the scruff of the neck” and banged out a compromise.

Chick, 48, said that nearly three years as a Picus field deputy convinced her that the councilwoman is a knee-jerk opponent of business at a time when the city needs new enterprises.

Picus said she judges development projects on a case-by-case basis, and said she is proud of her work in the district, including efforts to increase police presence there.

With no independent polling, money has again been the measure of the serious challenge confronting Flores in the 15th District.

While the three-term councilwoman, with $176,700, has twice the funds of her closest competitor, her four top challengers have put together war chests totaling more than $272,000.

Much of that money has gone into depicting Flores, 56, as a comfortable City Hall insider whose only interest is in advancing her own political career.

Flores provided fodder for that argument by running for secretary of state in 1990 and for Congress last November, a race she unexpectedly lost to a well-financed Democratic challenger. She was slow to declare her intention of running for reelection, thereby attracting an array of rivals. One is Janice K. Hahn, 40, who brings to the race the million-dollar name of her father, Kenneth Hahn, the venerable county supervisor who retired last year.

Another big-name competitor is Warren Furutani, the 45-year-old Los Angeles school board member. He has represented much of the district and is the only candidate besides Flores with proven vote-getting ability.

Less known but better-funded is Wilmington paint store owner Rudy Svorinich, who was born and raised in the community. His fund-raising drive ranks second only to Flores’, in large part because of contributions from the area’s large Yugoslav-American population.

The campaign of liberal labor lawyer Diane Middleton has been powered in large part by the backing of longshoremen and others with links to the maritime industry.

The councilwoman defends her record. And the power of incumbency has been clear in two actions Flores has taken in the last week. Flores asked the police and the city attorney’s office to move to ban many activities by gang members in the Harbor City area--in a plan modeled after a similar ban in the San Fernando Valley. And she was able to get the council to shift money from a road project into construction of a senior citizens center--a popular project with constituents.

Flores also rejects the claim she was abandoning her district to seek higher office; she maintains she simply wanted to serve the area in a different forum, the U.S. Congress.

Incumbents are having an easier time of it elsewhere in the city.

In the 5th District, which includes Westside and Valley areas, 18-year Councilman Zev Yaroslavsky is reprising his 1989 campaign against slow-growth activist Laura Lake. Much of the debate has focused on the plans by Fox Studios to expand its operations near Century City. Yaroslavsky said the plan will work with a modest scaling down, but Lake said it will overwhelm nearby Cheviot Hills.

City building inspector Michael Rosenberg is the third contender in the race.

In the 11th District, which also covers parts of the Westside and Valley, Councilman Marvin Braude wants to extend a 27-year reign. Braude did not have a challenger in the last three of his seven terms, but this time he faces two political newcomers--27-year-old lawyer Daniel Pritikin and restaurant owner John Handal.

In the 1st District near downtown, rookie Councilman Mike Hernandez faces token opposition after replacing popular Councilwoman Gloria Molina less than two years ago, when Molina moved to the Board of Supervisors.

His opponents are Esther Castillo Long, a longtime employee of Mayor Bradley’s office before her retirement this year, and Jean-Marie Durand, a Highland Park businessman.