TIMES ORANGE COUNTY POLL : 37% of Residents Expect to Leave Within 5 Years : Jobs are cited as main reason, with renters, the less affluent and young adults most likely to move.

At one time, people flocked to Orange County to fulfill their dreams. Now, nearly four in 10 residents expect to live elsewhere within five years, according to a new Times Orange County Poll.

Furthermore, six out of 10 people say they don’t expect their children or grandchildren to stay here.

Jobs and career topped the reasons people provided for thinking that they would live elsewhere five years from now. Growth and congestion were next, followed by the cost of living and concern about crime and gangs.

Younger adults, renters and the less affluent are the most likely to have expectations of moving.

Of the nearly six in 10 people who expect to remain in Orange County, about a third said that was because “this is home.” Another 18% said jobs and careers would keep them here, while 15% credited family and friends.

“What’s new about what we’re seeing now,” said Cheryl Katz, co-director of The Times Orange County Poll, “is that people are concerned not just about the quality of life in Orange County, but about the economy.”

Anxiety about the economy was clearly on the minds of residents when they reflected on whether future generations of their family would live in Orange County. Of those who expect their children and grandchildren to live elsewhere, the reason most frequently mentioned was jobs and career. Family and friends was the biggest factor among those who expect subsequent generations to remain in the county.

The recent telephone survey of 600 Orange County adults was conducted by Mark Baldassare & Associates from April 1 to 4 and has an error margin of plus or minus 4%.

John Duttera, who said he thinks he will move out of Orange County within five years, is nervous about job prospects in Orange County. His employer, Unisys Corp., a large computer manufacturer, has hired a new plant manager who has promised to cut operating expenses from $24 million to $14 million this year. Duttera, 35, believes that means layoffs are ahead.

“They say it’s better for them to hire part-time workers; then they don’t have to pay vacation and benefits,” said Duttera, who was among those polled. The Rancho Santa Margarita resident added that he would not be able to live on a part-time salary.

Trained as a computer technician, he has been taking night classes to earn his bachelor’s degree.

“There’s a lot of competition out there,” Duttera said. “Everyone has a degree. I would consider moving out of the county if I couldn’t find another job. But I would like to stay here right now.”

Bruce Van Bel, 45, a building contractor who is out of work, said he was fed up with Orange County before he lost his job--and is even more so now.

“Southern California has really pushed it to extremes with this rapid development,” he said. “This used to be a rural community, and they’re destroying it. They’re pulling trees out left and right.”

The Santa Ana resident, who takes care of his three young sons while their mother works, also worries about crime.

“I generally don’t even feel safe here during the day,” said Van Bel, who expressed anxiety about gangs in nearby Westminster and Garden Grove. “I’m afraid to walk the streets at night with the kids.”

Van Bel said that losing his job was the final blow and that he hopes to move his family outside the county within the next five years.

In 1991 and ‘92, Orange County’s employers cut about 75,000 positions, according to estimates from the state Employment Development Department. More jobs will be lost this year, many local economists believe, a final decrease before a rebound.

Orange County’s unemployment rate was 6.5% in February, up from 5.6% a year earlier. While the current unemployment rate in Orange County is below the 7% national rate and 9.4% statewide rate, joblessness here has been more prolonged during this recession than at any time since World War II.

Given the condition of the economy, the poll results are “not at all surprising,” said Robert Valleta, a UC Irvine economist. “The economic boom in Orange County in the 1980s was so remarkable and, in a sense, unprecedented that people have not been able to make the adjustment to the 1990s.”

He added, however, that Orange County will still “provide an excellent place to live, but not as lucrative.”

Residents clearly envision more limited career opportunities in Orange County: 59% said their business and employment opportunities here are fair or poor, while 38% rated them good or excellent.

Clerical and sales workers were more gloomy than blue-collar or upper white-collar workers, such as managers and professionals.

The poll asked respondents whether, given the choice, they would opt to learn new job skills in order to remain in Orange County or move somewhere else to keep the kind of job they have. Overall, half of the county’s residents would opt to learn new job skills in order to remain here. Clerical and sales workers are the most willing to retrain, with nearly six in 10 selecting that option.

Less inclined to retrain in order to live in Orange County are managers and professionals, with only four in 10 expressing that preference.

Overall, only one in three workers thinks his or her chances for advancement and promotion in Orange County are excellent or good. Another one in three thinks chances are just fair; one in four considers opportunities poor. Five percent said they didn’t know.

Such gloom is a symptom of an economy in transition, said Harriett M. Wieder, chairman of the County Board of Supervisors. But, she believes, it is a phase.

“This poll reflects to me that there are changes taking place,” she said, “that we are not going to be the same county we have been. But that is not for the worse either. For every negative, there is a positive.”

College graduates and people whose annual household income is more than $50,000 were the most optimistic, with about a third of them considering their opportunities for career advancement and promotion to be good and one in 10 calling their chances excellent.

One reason for this optimism is that nearly nine in 10 residents with household income above $50,000 believe that they have the job skills to succeed in Orange County’s future employment market. Overall, 76% say they have the skills needed for success. Among lower white-collar workers, non-college graduates and those making less than $50,000 per year, however, the number who feel that they have the job skills necessary for success in Orange County falls to two-thirds.

Carol Di Iullo, a poll participant who makes more than $55,000 a year as a software validation manager, said she is optimistic about her career. She works in Irvine for ICL Inc., which makes mainframes, personal computers and electronic scanners, such as the ones used at grocery store checkout stands.

“I feel secure because my company is doing well,” said Di Iullo, 47. “We didn’t get raises, so my income hasn’t gone up in a year. But they haven’t cut my pay, which is what is happening to other people.”

This year, Di Iullo assumed custody of her twin granddaughters, age 6. Their parents separated, she said, and were no longer able to support the girls.

So she intends to stay in Anaheim and raise her granddaughters. “Our neighborhood is kids-oriented, and there’s not a lot of crime,” Di Iullo said. “There are good schools close by, and it’s neighborly.”

In Di Iullo’s income group--households with annual earnings of more than $50,000--only one out of three people said he or she did not expect to be in Orange County in five years. More than four in 10 of those with lower incomes saw themselves living somewhere other than Orange County within five years.

Ranked behind jobs and careers as reasons why people don’t expect to live in Orange County in the future were concerns about congestion and the cost of living. The Times poll found that of those who said they might move, 15% are worried about congestion, while 13% believe that the county is too expensive.

Ralph Barry, 52, an executive in Tustin, said he is considering fleeing the worsening Orange County crush. More than ever, he said, people are confronted with graffiti, crowded freeways and a bad business environment.

“We are not addressing the traffic problems,” Barry said. “It’s going to get worse unless there are some serious changes. I would be more than happy to eat my words.”

Stan Oftelie, head of the Orange County Transportation Authority, acknowledges that “it’s a big problem,” but he argues that it is not an insoluble one.

Measure M, the half-cent countywide sales tax for traffic improvements approved by voters in 1990, is already making roads more drivable, Oftelie said. Having raised $231.7 million since it was implemented in April, 1991, Measure M is helping pay for the Orange Freeway’s new car-pool lanes that opened in June.

Concern about crime and gangs was ranked fourth among reasons why people expect to leave Orange County within the next five years; 11% said that was their primary concern.

Orange County native Marie Young, 25, said she might move from Orange County when her 3-month-old twins reach school age.

“It depends on what it’s like here,” Young said, “whether there is gang activity. . . . I may have to move my children to somewhere where it’s peaceful.”

Also of concern to Young and her husband are declining home values.

Three years ago, the Youngs paid $365,000 for their four-bedroom home in the North Hills section of Brea. She said the value of the home has risen only about $3,000 in three years.

“We’ve put a lot of extra work into it” to keep the value up, Young said. This year, she and her husband re-tiled the bathroom. They hope the house retains its value while they own it.

More than half of those who own homes, 56%, said their property’s value had dropped during the past three years, with 21% saying it had dropped a lot.

Nearly 60% of homeowners expect the value of their property to fall or stay the same in the next three years.

One group that has benefited from the downturn, at least to some degree, is renters. About half of those who hope to own a home someday say the drop in interest rates and housing prices has improved their chances of reaching that goal.

Reasons to Leave

Jobs and career are the main reasons that residents say they would move out of Orange County: Jobs, career: 26% Growth, congestion: 15% Cost of living: 13% Crime, gangs: 11% Family, friends: 8% Lifestyle: 4% Climate, beaches: 1% Other: 22% Source: Times Orange County Poll

Orange County’s Outlook A Guarded View of the Future

The past three years have been difficult ones for Orange County homeowners, with 56% of them saying their home values have dropped. But 39% believe that home values will increase in the next three years. In terms of economic security, more upper white-collar workers and college graduates are inclined to leave Orange County if faced with the alternative of job retraining. The majority of residents picture themselves still living here five years from now.

More than half of all homeowners say the value of their homes has decreased in the past three years.

Income Income All under $50,000 homeowners $50,000 or more Home value increased 21% 20% 22% Home value stayed the same 20 20 20 Home value decreased 56 57 56 Don’t know 3 3 2

*

A little over one-third say the value of their homes will increase in the next three years.

Income Income All under $50,000 homeowners $50,000 or more Home value will increase 39% 33% 44% Home value will stay the same 43 42 44 Home value will decrease 15 21 10 Don’t know 3 4 2

*

Six in 10 expect their children and grandchildren to live someplace other than Orange County. Where residents think the next generation will end up living:

In O.C. Elsewhere Don’t know All O.C. 23% 59% 18% 18 to 34 22 61 17 35 to 54 21 60 19 55 or older 27 53 20 Income less than $50,000 21 56 23 Income $50,000 or more 26 62 12

*

Upper white-collar workers are more upbeat about their opportunities for career advancement and promotion in Orange County.

Don’t Excellent Good Fair Poor know All O.C.* 8% 28% 33% 26% 5% Upper white-collar 10 37 29 18 6 Lower white-collar 10 18 42 29 1 Blue-collar 7 23 38 29 3 Non-college graduates 7 26 30 33 4 College graduates 8 30 36 19 7 Income less than $50,000 6 21 32 36 5 Income $50,000 or more 10 35 34 17 4

* Excluding retired residents

*

More than a third of residents see themselves living somewhere other than Orange County five years from now. This is especially true of younger people, renters and those with lower incomes.

Will live in Will live Don’t Orange County elsewhere know All O.C. 58% 37% 5% 18 to 34 53 44 3 35 to 54 61 35 4 55 or older 64 28 8 Owners 67 29 4 Renters 43 51 6 Income less than $50,000 52 43 5 Income $50,000 or more 65 32 3

*

Residents are divided over staying or moving if faced with the choice of learning new job skills to remain in Orange County or having to move somewhere else to keep the kind of job they have. Most inclined to move are those with more education and higher-status jobs.

Stay Move Don’t know All O.C.* 49% 46% 5% Upper white-collar 43 51 6 Lower white-collar 58 36 6 Blue-collar 51 45 4 Non-college graduates 51 43 6 College graduates 46 49 5 Income less than $50,000 50 44 6 Income $50,000 or more 47 49 4

* Excluding retired residents

Source: Times Orange County Poll

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Orange County Poll was conducted by Mark Baldassare & Associates. The telephone survey of 600 Orange County adult residents was conducted in English and Spanish from April 1 to 4 on weekday nights and weekend days. A computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers was used. The margin of error for the total sample is plus or minus 4% at the 95% confidence level. That means it is 95% certain that the results are within 4 percentage points of what they would be if every Orange County adult resident were interviewed. For subgroups such as employed residents, the margin of error is larger.