U.S. Forces Await Decision on Bosnia : Balkans: President considers military options, including symbolic strikes or a broader attack against Serbian targets. Warplanes, carriers are at the ready.

About 200 U.S. warplanes and the aircraft carriers Nimitz and Theodore Roosevelt awaited orders Friday as President Clinton prepared for a decision today on whether to launch allied air strikes against rebel Serbian forces in an effort to end the bloodshed in Bosnia.

Although the Defense Department stopped short of actually placing U.S. forces on alert, Pentagon planners put the finishing touches on plans that could deliver either a few symbolic strikes or a broader attack intended to knock out an array of Serbian targets.

A senior Pentagon official said that one operation currently being discussed would involve more than 200 U.S. warplanes, about a quarter the size of the force used in the Persian Gulf, that could deliver laser-guided bombs both at night and in foul weather.

Despite the preparation, it was not immediately clear whether Clinton will go ahead with bombing raids. Key U.S. allies still are wary of undertaking military action, and the Bosnian Serbs and all other elements involved in the Bosnian civil war have agreed to two days of peace talks in Athens this weekend.

The President has summoned his top military and national security advisers to a meeting this morning amid continued indications that he wants to take some action to stop the Serbian drive for “ethnic cleansing” of Muslims and Croats from much of Bosnia-Herzegovina.

Clinton is said to favor a two-pronged policy that would combine lifting an international embargo on arms sales to Bosnia with a series of air strikes that would be designed to give Bosnia’s Muslims time to obtain badly needed weapons and training. He already has ruled out the use of U.S. ground troops.

Lifting the arms embargo for Bosnia would require approval by the U.N. Security Council, which has banned weapons sales to all the republics of what used to be Yugoslavia. And under the U.S. War Powers Act, putting U.S. forces in action beyond an initial air strike would require approval from Congress.

Officials have said that once the President decides what he would like to do, Secretary of State Warren Christopher will travel to Europe to consult with key allies and try to win their support.

It was not immediately clear to what extent new peace talks would delay any allied action, particularly if the rebel Serbs reconsider their initial rejection of an international peace plan at a scheduled session of their self-declared legislature Wednesday. They have hinted they might do so.

The plan was worked out by former U.S. Secretary of State Cyrus R. Vance and ex-British Foreign Secretary Lord Owen and has been accepted by Bosnia’s Muslims and Croats.

Although the Administration said Friday that it will keep working toward a decision on an action plan in spite of the Athens talks, officials hinted that, because the talks have not yet concluded, Clinton may have to settle for alternative scenarios.

Clinton, in New Orleans on Friday to promote his plan for a national service program, told reporters that he thinks that, by considering tougher action, he has prodded the Serbs to reconsider the peace plan.

“I think it may well have,” he said. “I certainly hope so.”

Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic said Friday that he does not believe his side can sign the accord during this weekend’s negotiations, but he said he is optimistic that the plan could be made acceptable enough for the legislature to ratify Wednesday.

But State Department spokesman Richard A. Boucher said signing the accord would not be enough because the Serbs “have broken more promises than they’ve kept, and we’ve seen little evidence that they’ve kept good faith.”

“What we need from the Serbs . . . is deeds, not words,” Boucher said. “We’ll go ahead with our decision-making process,” he added, “and we’ll see what happens in Athens.”

White House Communications Director George Stephanopoulos indicated that some U.S. allies have eased their opposition to lifting the arms embargo against Bosnia to help the Muslims there defend themselves against the Serbs.

Clinton has said repeatedly that the United States will not act except as part of a multilateral force--a term that usually means the participation of Britain and France.

Officials said that military operations, if any, would not begin until next week even if those nations agreed to participate.

They have objected to air strikes in the past because they have peacekeeping troops in Bosnia who they fear would become the targets of Serbian retaliation.

Pentagon planners said Friday that Clinton has been fully briefed on the range of options and their likely consequences. “He’s got everything he needs to make a decision,” one said, “and we expect to hear in the next week.”

A relatively small part of any air strike force--as many as 40 A-6E Intruders and F/A-18 Hornet warplanes--would fly from the decks of the Nimitz, at present in the Persian Gulf, and the Theodore Roosevelt, now steaming in the Adriatic Sea.

The remainder would consist of more than 160 Air Force fighters and bombers, including F-15E Strike Eagles, F-111 fighter-bombers and F-117 Stealth fighters, operating from allied air bases at Aviano and Sigonella, Italy.

In addition, British Tornadoes, which delivered precision bombs against especially difficult targets during the Persian Gulf War, and French Mirage jets would join the U.S. forces, flying support combat air patrol and launching some bombing raids of their own.

Defense officials said Friday that Clinton could order some of the F-15s, F-111s and F-117s deployed from bases in the United States--Seymour-Johnson Air Force Base in North Carolina and Holloman and Cannon in New Mexico.

The rest would come from air bases in Europe. Strategists cautioned that as of late Friday, the Pentagon had not designated specific units for such duty. However, they said that travel plans for top generals and admirals have been canceled.

Officials said that there are some snags. There has been no decision yet whether an air assault would be considered an operation of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization or simply an allied operation--a distinction that would affect the command structure and the political impact of the move.

There also is a question about how to gather enough intelligence for allied forces to operate effectively.

Experts said Friday that spy satellites have only limited value under such conditions and that the United States has virtually no agents on the ground.

Allied military commanders began collecting intelligence on Serbian military installations early last March, and U.N. forces now in Bosnia on peacekeeping missions have interviewed hundreds of refugees.

But intelligence-gathering still is limited, and strategists said that Clinton’s ban on deployment of any U.S. ground troops prevents the use of special operations forces to help target Serbian batteries for precision bombing.

Even so, sources familiar with planning said the Pentagon has already prepared a list of possible targets, if the President should decide to undertake bombing operations and then enlarge them beyond merely knocking out Serbian artillery emplacements.

Times staff writer John M. Broder, traveling with the President in New Orleans, contributed to this story.

How Close Is U.S. Involvement?

This must happen before the U.S. launches air strikes on Serbian forces in Bosnia-Herzegovina:

1. President Clinton must decide, possibly in a key meeting with top national security advisers today, to launch the strikes.

2. The President then presumably would make a round of telephone calls to allied leaders and members of Congress to discuss the situation.

3. Secretary of State Warren Christopher, in a trip scheduled to begin this weekend, would have to persuade U.S. allies in Europe to back a U.S. plan.

4. A key route to peace: The Bosnian Serb legislature, after refusing to sign the peace plan this week, called a new session for Wednesday to reconsider. Any military action is likely to wait for the outcome of their meeting.

LEGAL ROADBLOCKS

War Powers Act: If Clinton were to send U.S. warplanes, he probably would be compelled to seek congressional approval under the act, which requires a vote in Congress on any large or protracted deployment of U.S. forces overseas.

U.N. approval: Secretary General Boutros Boutros-Ghali said that no new Security Council resolution is necessary to authorize military action. He said Resolution 770, adopted last Aug. 13, would permit such action.

Source: Times staff and wire reports