State Population Grows at Lowest Rate Since ’75 : Survey: Experts say figures reflect a less-attractive economy. Increase of 1.8% is still above national average.

California last year grew at the slowest pace in nearly two decades as the state’s stagnant economy discouraged people from moving into the state and prompted others to leave in search of a better life elsewhere, the Wilson Administration said Wednesday.

The state’s population grew by 570,000, to 31.5 million people, during 1992, according to the latest survey by the Department of Finance.

That was a growth rate of just 1.8%, the lowest since 1975.

“It’s a reflection of the economy, especially in Southern California,” said John Malson, a state demographer who helped prepare the survey. “The growth rates in many of the counties in Southern California dropped quite a bit. As Southern California goes, so goes the state.”

Malson said the latest numbers do not contradict a recent department report that predicted that California’s population would grow relentlessly for the next half-century, eventually doubling to more than 60 million people. He said that report envisioned that the state’s population growth would slow for a time because of the current condition of the economy before rebounding and resuming its rapid rate of expansion.

Peter Morrison, a demographer for the RAND Corp., the Santa Monica-based think tank, agreed. He pointed out that the state’s 1.8% growth rate still is far higher than the national average of about 1.1%.

“This is an aberration,” Morrison said. “What we are getting is just sort of an adjustment. The bottom line is that California’s growth rate has dipped down to what may be historically low levels, but nonetheless the state still is growing far more rapidly than the nation as a whole.”

Most of the growth in 1992 came from the natural increase of births over deaths, which has held steady at about 390,000 a year since 1990.

Net migration to California declined to 180,000, a sharp drop from its peak of 433,000 in 1989 and the lowest level since 1973.

The growth from migration is primarily the result of immigration from foreign countries, Malson said. More people left California for other states than moved here, he said, although precise numbers are not yet available.

Los Angeles County, where the economy is ailing more than elsewhere, had the lowest growth rate in the state, with the county’s population increasing by less than 1%, to 9.2 million. Los Angeles nevertheless had the largest numerical growth of any county, with an increase of 84,000.

The Los Angeles increase resulted entirely from a natural increase--141,000 more births than deaths during the year. Migration was responsible for a net loss to the county of 57,000 residents.

Imperial County had the highest growth rate, increasing by 10% during the year. Much of that increase was attributed to growth in the prison population and the staff at a new prison there.

Orange County grew by 2.1% to 2.6 million; Riverside County grew 3.7% to 1.3 million; San Bernardino County’s population increased by 2.8% to 1.6 million; San Diego County grew by 1.7% to reach 2.6 million, and Ventura County grew by 1.5% to 700,100.

The state Finance Department’s population estimates are based on the 1990 census, adjusted after studying trends in new construction, the number of utility customers, drivers license records and school enrollment.

The announcement that the state’s population growth is slowing was another modest indicator that there may be a silver lining in the black economic cloud hanging over the state: As fewer people move here, fewer will need state services.

Just 18 months ago, Gov. Pete Wilson predicted that the state would suffer double-digit growth in welfare cases for years, with the growth bottoming out at 8% a year throughout the 1990s. Instead, the growth in the number of welfare recipients peaked in October, 1991, and has dropped every month since then to 6.4% in November, 1992, the last month for which numbers are available.

And although Wilson said school enrollments were “set to explode” and projected that they would grow by about 200,000 a year throughout the decade, enrollments now are expected to climb by just 85,000 in the current school year.

Yet Wilson’s contention that the state is suffering an alarming loss of residents in their prime tax-paying years continues to be borne out by the data.

According to the latest survey of state drivers license records, California continues to gain population from other states in the 18 to 29 age group, with 46,000 more people in that group moving to the state than moved out in the year ending June 30, 1992.

But people in the 30 to 64 age group, considered by state budget writers to be the prime wage earners, left in greater numbers than they moved into the state. Records show about 214,000 left; only 165,000 moved in.

Still Growing

New figures released by the state show that last year, California experienced the slowest population growth in almost two decades. Here are some population estimates: THE BIGGEST CITIES

CITY POPULATION PERCENTAGE CHANGE * Los Angeles 3,607,700 0.9% * San Diego 1,171,600 1.8% * San Jose 822,000 2.0% * San Francisco 752,000 1.6% * Long Beach 437,800 -0.7% * Fresno 391,600 2.8% * Sacramento 391,100 1.5% * Oakland 382,700 0.7% * Santa Ana 308,400 1.3% * Anaheim 285,500 2.3%

*

COUNTIES WITH THE MOST GROWTH

COUNTY POPULATION INCREASE PERCENTAGE CHANGE * Los Angeles 9,158,400 84,000 0.9% * Orange 2,557,300 52,600 2.1% * Riverside 1,328,300 47,400 3.6% * San Diego 2,648,600 44,100 1.7% * San Bernardino 1,556,300 42,200 2.7% * Santa Clara 1,563,800 26,100 1.7% * Fresno 733,300 21,800 3.0%

NOTE: Figures for Jan. 1, 1992-Jan. 1, 1993

SOURCE: State Department of Finance