Analysts See Artillery, Supply Lines Targeted

An air campaign in Bosnia, should it occur, probably would entail four or five days of high-altitude precision night-bombing followed by up to two months of regular patrols designed to keep Serbian artillery at bay, defense analysts said Friday.

An initial foray could be expected to involve between 200 and 300 sorties designed to knock out the Bosnian Serb artillery that is shelling Muslim cities and towns and to destroy Serbian command centers and supply lines.

High on the list of probable targets would be the Serbs’ already dwindling gasoline supplies, which are needed to power the trucks that enable them to move their artillery.

At the same time, Bosnia’s embattled Muslims would be given a steady stream of surplus U.S. weaponry--from machine guns, mortars and artillery to some sophisticated fire-control radar. They also would receive trucks and extra gasoline to provide added logistics support.

U.S. military personnel could be sent to help train Muslims in the use of the weaponry--a process that would be carried out during a two-month period in which the United States hopes to provide air cover. After that, Washington would cut back its support.

The plan, as it is now envisioned by the Administration, would fulfill the promise that President Clinton made Friday to develop “a very specific, clearly defined strategy (and) clear tactical objectives . . . which would have a beginning, a middle and an end. . . .”

Nevertheless, defense experts warned Friday that the strategy still is a risky one that ultimately might fail to stop the bloodshed as quickly--or as effectively--as the White House hopes.

Not only is artillery hard to hit--particularly with high-altitude night bombing--but Bosnia has no ports for unloading large amounts of new weapons, and the Muslim forces are undisciplined and may prove difficult to mold into an effective fighting force.

“Even with all this capability, the Muslims have gotten themselves so dug into a hole that it’s almost too late,” said retired Air Force Col. Robert W. Gaskin, a former Pentagon planner now with Business Executives for National Security, a defense research group.

Don M. Snider, an analyst with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, agreed. “It’s going to take a severe campaign of punishment to change Serb intentions,” Snider said. “They are not going to be deterred by banging around some artillery pieces.”

Experts said that the contingent of warplanes required for the initial round of strikes would probably include two squadrons of Air Force F-111 Aardvarks and F-15E Strike Eagles, with 20 Navy A-6 Intruders and a handful of F-18C Hornets from the aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt.

The aircraft would be laden with precision “smart” bombs, which are guided to their targets by special infrared radar that senses the heat emitted by weapons and soldiers and adjusts the steering fins on each bomb. Accuracy levels of the weapon are very high.

U.S. analysts said that the Pentagon already has drawn up a list of possible targets and is tracking them by spy satellites and high-altitude reconnaissance flights. Most are in the northwestern and eastern sections of the country.

After an initial round of sorties, U.S. and allied aircraft would continue to fly patrols over Bosnia in search of any remaining Serbian artillery, probably for as long as two months. Any artillery pieces sighted presumably would be eliminated immediately.

The United States also has sophisticated TPQ-36 and TPQ-37 “counter-battery radar,” which can trace the origin of any shell or mortar that is fired and help knock out the gun that fired it within 30 seconds.

Military analysts said that the TPQ-36 is by far the most effective weapon for nullifying artillery--far more accurate than aerial bombing--but it can only be used in tandem with artillery, not in conjunction with bombs dropped from aircraft.

Experts said that the United States could lend such radar units to the Muslims, whom it then would have to train. Or, it could send in a limited number of U.S. troops to fire the weapons--a move that might provoke a political backlash at home.

Analysts said that the strategy employed in the round of air strikes would be to eliminate the Serbs’ artillery capability by knocking out not only the guns but the command centers, supply lines, bridges and ammunition depots needed to operate them.

Intelligence analysts have said that the Serbs have access to huge caches of ammunition--along with about 300 tanks--that were stored in mountain caves during the regime of Yugoslav dictator Josip Broz Tito.

Intelligence experts said that Serb-controlled air defenses are limited. The Bosnian Serbs have only a few radar-guided SA-2, SA-3 and SA-6 surface-to-air missiles and some SA-14 shoulder-fired missiles, all of which are relatively easy to destroy or thwart.

Gaskin and other analysts cautioned that air strikes would have only a limited effect and that, to cripple and defeat the Serbs, the allies would need to employ large numbers of ground troops, equipped with counter-battery artillery.

However, analysts said that the air strikes would be only a stopgap to enable the allies to arm the Bosnian Muslims--the key to the Administration’s new strategy. The disparity between the well-armed Serbs and virtually unarmed Muslims has been a major factor in the Muslim defeats.

Defense experts speculated that the weapons the United States would provide to arm the Bosnian Muslims might include 155-millimeter artillery with TacFire radar fire-control systems, 80-millimeter mortars and M-60 50-caliber machine guns.