Slowdown May Force Changes in Housing Goals : Growth: Sluggish residential construction is threatening Oxnard’s targets for affordable units, the city’s planners conclude in annual report.

A continuing slowdown in residential construction in Oxnard is threatening the city’s ability to provide sufficient affordable housing for its residents, the city’s planning staff has concluded in an annual report.

If the trend continues, the city might be forced to drop building restrictions in some areas reserved for future growth in order to meet its housing goals, planners told the city’s Planning Commission last week.

“Without some shift in (policy), we probably won’t make much headway in meeting the affordable housing goals,” Planning Director Matt Winegar said.

The report will be forwarded to the City Council for review.

According to the report that summarizes 1992 development, new residential construction lagged behind goals targeted in the city’s 2020 General Plan for the third straight year. Adopted by the city in 1990, the 2020 General Plan serves as a 30-year blueprint for Oxnard’s development.

While the plan’s Growth Management Program calls for an average of 420 housing units to be built each year between 1990 and 1995, just 323 units were built last year. That was down from 352 units in 1991, but slightly above the 1990 total of 300 units.

Although the plan’s housing element specifies that nearly half the units should be affordable to people with very-low income to moderate income, just 10% of last year’s residential construction was lower-priced, said Alan Moore, a city planner.

The slowdown could force the city to revise the phasing plan for residential development that was set out in the Growth Management Program, said Richard J. Maggio, the city’s community development director.

Under the program, residential construction was to proceed in three phases. Construction during the first phase was intended to fill in the boundaries of existing neighborhoods throughout the city where public services are already available or could be provided by the developer.

As defined in the 2020 General Plan, there is enough acreage in first-phase areas to allow the construction of 3,513 dwelling units.

Only when building permits have been issued for 75% of the possible units in first-phase areas would construction be allowed to proceed in the second phase under the Growth Management Program. That is because needed public services must still be planned for properties included in the second phase, Maggio said.

A third category of properties consists of larger, undeveloped parcels for which special planning is needed before development can be considered. Construction is not anticipated in third-phase areas before 1995, Maggio noted.

But with the building slowdown, only 1,110 dwelling units had been completed or were under construction in first-phase areas by April 7. Under current rules, that means another 1,524 residential units must be built before any development can occur in second-phase areas, Maggio said.

However, Maggio said several projects in the first phase, with a combined total of nearly 1,200 units, have been indefinitely delayed due to economic barriers and problems providing necessary public services.

While the time when 75% of first-phase development will be completed appears more remote, several projects proposed for the second-phase areas have the potential to contribute more affordable housing to the city, Maggio said.

“To achieve affordable housing goals, we may have to consider phase-two projects,” Moore told commissioners last week.

Winegar said the city may also want to suspend its growth controls to exert more effort in producing affordable units.

Several commissioners expressed little concern that development was occurring more slowly than projected in the 2020 General Plan.

“Growth is managing itself,” said Commissioner Dale Dean. “Growth will come back; it always does. Where energy needs to go is in non-market areas downtown” and in already-developed areas that have some empty parcels, he said.

Maggio blamed the national recession, credit crunch and defense cuts for the weak growth. Referring to forecasts by UCLA economists, Maggio predicted a continuation of slow demand for new construction in Oxnard.

He said the city has no office projects in the pipeline and only a single pending application for a 9,363-square-foot industrial project.

“It can therefore be concluded that development during 1992 and within the current five-year period (1990-1995) will fall far short of the 2020 General Plan anticipated growth targets,” Maggio concluded in the review.

After accepting the annual development review, the commission authorized city planners to return with possible revisions to the Growth Management Plan and the residential phasing program.

Such amendments to the 2020 General Plan would require public hearings by the Planning Commission and City Council before they could be adopted.