Will ‘Cheers’ Top ‘MASH,’ ‘Dallas’ Ratings?

Up to now, the two most-watched entertainment shows in TV history are the finale of “MASH” in 1983 and the “Who Shot J.R.?” episode of “Dallas” in 1980.

But next week, “Cheers,” which has won just about every other honor in sight, will try to join the charmed circle of all-time blockbuster episodes in its NBC finale after 11 seasons.

The “MASH” and “Dallas” tune-ins remain phenomenal because the two episodes are still the only entertainment shows that rank among TV’s 10 most-watched programs, not including news events. The other eight Top 10 entries are Super Bowls.

A cautious gambler might note that the “Cheers” farewell on Thursday is airing in an era when there are more TV alternatives than there were a decade ago. In addition, the vast majority of top-rated broadcasts in TV history were presented during or near winter months, when cold weather kept more viewers across the nation at home.

On the other hand, “Cheers” has the kind of beloved status that “MASH” enjoyed, and the public just can’t seem to get enough of the cozy comedy set in a Boston bar. Its popularity remains stupendous--it has been growing in recent weeks during the buildup to the finale. And even nightly reruns on such local stations as KTLA-TV Channel 5 have not diminished interest in the original episodes on NBC.

Among the 10 most-watched entertainment shows of all time, “MASH” is in a class by itself, with about 50.1 million homes watching its finale. The “Who Shot J.R.?” episode attracted 41.4 million TV households. The 1983 nuclear holocaust drama “The Day After” is in third place with 38.5 million.

The fourth-ranked show was presented just three months ago--Michael Jackson’s prime-time interview with Oprah Winfrey, which was seen in 36.5 million homes, earning a whopping 39.6 rating and a 56% share of the audience.

Assessing the “Cheers” finale, analyst David Davis of the media research firm Paul Kagan Associates says: “Michael Jackson showed that you could get a 40 rating and a 56 share even in this day of alternatives if you have a major event.”

Rounding out the Top 10 most-watched entertainment shows are “Roots, Part 8,” with 36.3 million homes; a 1987 episode of “The Cosby Show,” with 36.1 million; three episodes of the miniseries “The Thorn Birds,” with 35.99 million, 35.9 million and 35.4 million; and “The Winds of War, Part 7,” 34.1 million.

The “Cheers” windup is airing during a month that generally has fewer households using television than other major sweeps periods, partly because of weather. Nonetheless, the series’ goodby is “like Carson going out,” says Davis, referring to Johnny Carson’s heavily watched retirement as host of NBC’s “The Tonight Show” last May.

During the so-called official season that ended April 18, “Cheers” ranked No. 9 among all series, averaging a 16.1 rating and a 25% share of the audience. But the growing interest in the show’s concluding episodes was indicated in statistics issued for last week, in which “Cheers” placed No. 2 only to “Home Improvement,” climbing to a 20.8 rating and 32% of viewers nationally.

What are the projections for the finale? One source thinks the network is hoping for a 37 or 38 rating with perhaps a 60% audience share, which would be extraordinary. The numbers actually aren’t much different from the Jackson-Winfrey figures, but the celebrity interview took place in February, usually television’s most-watched month.

On Madison Avenue, several estimates range from a slightly lower rating of about 33 and a 50 share to a higher rating in the 40s with a share approaching 70. In short, no one really knows, which is what makes it fun. While no one expects a relative fizzle, it’s just tough to know how high is up. Meanwhile, reports on Madison Avenue are that NBC is asking $650,000 for a 30-second commercial on the final “Cheers.”

On Feb. 28, 1983, the “MASH” farewell registered a mind-boggling tune-in, scoring a 60.2 rating and drawing 77% of the audience. In the age of cable and the month of May, anything even within shouting distance of such figures would be a memorable showing. The reason:

Once upon a time, many TV shows got ratings and shares that were stupendous by today’s standards; that was because there was no real competition for the Big Three networks, CBS, NBC and ABC. In the era of cable, VCRs and independent stations, network ratings and shares dropped sharply. But the size of audiences often grew because there are now more homes with TV and the population has increased.

Thus, the most-watched shows in sheer numbers of viewers are of more recent vintage. Of the Top 10 entertainment programs in this category, “Roots, Part 8” is the oldest, airing in 1977. All the others were broadcast during the 1980s, except for February’s Jackson-Winfrey telecast.

How dramatically have things changed in judging a program’s success? Consider:

In the official season that recently ended, “60 Minutes” was the top series with a ratings average of 22 and a 36% audience share. Yet ratings of 40-plus were common in years past, and getting 50%, 60%, even 70% of the audience was not that unusual.

Series such as “The Beverly Hillbillies,” “Gunsmoke,” “Bonanza,” “The Ed Sullivan Show,” “All in the Family” and “Wagon Train” are in the books with episodes that pulled 60% or more of the nation’s viewers. The Sullivan show, for instance, commanded 60% of the audience with the Beatles on Feb. 9, 1964.

And in one of the most amazing tune-ins of all time, “The Fugitive” drew 72% of TV watchers with its final episode--which, unbelievably, was broadcast in the dog days of summer, on Aug. 29, 1967. About 25.7 million people watched the show, and its ratings average of 45.9 still ranks among the Top 20 in TV history, including Super Bowls.

Even in the 1980s, programs like “The Day After” and “The Thorn Birds” earned audience shares of 60-plus. And the Jackson-Winfrey interview showed that blockbusters still happen. On merit alone, viewers should belly up to the nation’s favorite bar on “Cheers” Thursday for the last call. Just how many, we’ll see.