Why Polls Can Be Poles Apart : As recent surveys on Bosnia show, the wording of questions can influence results.

Ted Koppel opened his May 6 “Nightline” broadcast heralding good news for President Clinton about the conflict in Bosnia-Herzegovina: A just-completed ABC News poll showed a majority of Americans now ready to support military action in concert with our European allies.

The next day’s USA Today headline--”55% oppose air strikes”--sent quite a different message. The paper, citing its new Gallup survey, said the public was “uncertain about getting involved in Bosnia-Herzegovina.”

How can the polls be so far apart, especially on such an important issue as the use of armed force abroad?

Dueling poll results are hardly the exception when the topic is a complex, fast-changing crisis beyond our shores. As popular as the Gulf War became, for example, some surveys taken before its onset led many to believe that the public would not back the use of U.S. force.

A review of recent media polling on the Bosnia situation shows a wide variation of responses to differently worded questions about different types of U.S. involvement.

In a February Washington Post/ABC News survey, only 23% endorsed “military action against Serbia to stop it from supporting Serbian fighters in neighboring Bosnia.” But a Los Angeles Times survey in January found 49% backing the use of U.S. air power and 37% for using ground troops “against Serbian and Serbian-led forces that are besieging Bosnia.”

The differences illustrate the importance of the wording of poll questions.

The May 6 ABC survey question that led the “Nightline” broadcast, for example, produced a 61% majority in favor of unspecified U.S. “military action” against the Bosnian Serbs if they “refuse to stop fighting,” and if the military steps are taken with our European allies.

The same ABC poll found that 65% backed air strikes against Bosnian Serb artillery positions, again including the phrase “along with . . . allies in Europe.”

But Gallup’s poll the same day for USA Today and CNN asked about making U.S. “air strikes against Serbian military forces,” with no reference to the role of our European allies. Only 36% favored the idea, and 55% opposed it.

If one looks closely at the surveys, several conclusions are apparent. First, there seems to be no clear majority in favor of unilateral U.S. involvement in a Bosnian war. The mix of questions by ABC and Gallup, along with other recent surveys by Time/CNN and Newsweek, confirm the lack of a solid majority for independent air or ground intervention.

The ABC questions revealed how critical European participation might be in generating American consensus for involvement in the crisis. ABC nailed this down when it asked if the United States should act alone in Bosnia if our European allies do not participate. Eighty-six percent said no.

Americans are wary of using ground troops in a Bosnian war even in concert with Europe. But the President might find more backing for proposing a U.S. ground contingent of U.N. peacekeepers. Despite the disastrous experience when the United States sent Marines to Lebanon in the early 1980s, Gallup found a wide majority of Americans in favor of U.S. troop contributions to a U.N. peacekeeping effort, a finding verified by Time magazine and CNN in February.

Even the most in-depth polling will never be able to predict public reaction to something that has yet to happen because so much depends on the outcome. Even after several weeks of a successful air war against Iraq in 1991, a majority of Americans were still reluctant to say they favored an all-out ground assault to force Saddam Hussein from Kuwait. And just 28% supported the forceful overthrow of Panamanian dictator Manuel A. Noriega before the December, 1989, U.S. invasion. Both moves were much more popular after the fact.

Until U.S. policy is settled, conflicting poll headlines are likely to abound. Careful poll watchers will follow the adage “Look at more than one poll; look at more than one poll question.”

Question Wording Counts

Differently worded polls taken on the same say varied widely. Note that one question asked about action with our European allies while the other doesn’t mention them.

Gallup/CNN/USA Today

The question: As you may know, the Bosnian Serbs rejected the United Nations peace plan and Serbian forces are continuing to attack Muslim towns. Some people are suggesting the United States conduct air strikes against Serbian military forces, while others say we should not get militarily involved. Do you favor or oppose U.S. air strikes? Favor: 36% Oppose: 55% Depends*: 3% No opinion: 6% * Volunteered answer. Poll of 603 adults nationwide, taken May 6. Margin of error is plus or minus 5 percentage points.

*

ABC News

The question: Specifically, would you support or oppose the United States, along with its allies in Europe, carrying out air strikes against Bosnian Serb artillery positions and supply lines? Favor: 65% Oppose: 32% No opinion: 3% Poll of 516 adults nationwide, taken May 6. Margin of error is plus or minus 5 percentage points.